The Time poll once again skews the sample: 35% Reps, 35% Dems

[Karmadillo]

It's amazing the lengths to which the liberal media will go to undermine conservatives. Giving Republicans extra representation in the polls in order to lull them into a sense of security is just outrageous.

http://www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,733715,00.html

Likely voters reported party identifications are: 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, 23% Independents. Registered voters party affiliations are: 35% Democrat, 33% Republican, 23% Independent.

[NMDemDist2]

1. that's OK let them keep thinking they're ahead n/t

[southern democrat]

2. What exactly are you saying here?

Are you saying they should polled more Dems

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Umhum

Yes...


My fearless prediction.. The electorate will be 39.5% Democratic, 35% PUKE, and 26.5% Indy...


Kerry 49.2%

Asshat 48.8%

Scattered 1.5%

Asshat's Brother (Nader) .05%

[underpants]

5. K54-W45-Other1

sssssssssshhhhh that is my prediction.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. never happen... this country is way too polarized....

and with those numbers Kerry would be winning over four hundred Electoral College Votes...


There's lots of Americans who love the asshat...

[underpants]

4. s/b D38-R31-I31 according to Zogby and others(right?)

so the LV is -3 Dem and +4 Rep (excluding Indies who are breaking more towards Kerry if I remember correctly)

and RV is -3 Dem and + 2 Rep (again exluding Indies)

Neither one total to 100%

but then NBC had a graphic on the Scholastic Magazine's kids poll that total 105% on Wednesday. The result of that poll of 500K kids was really W52 Kerry 47 and 1 Other ("Mom") which was announced correctly but the full page graphic was W 57 Kerry 47 Other 1.

The same day the Nickelodeon poll was Kerry 57 W 43 no "Other".

[IronLionZion]

8. trust the Nickelodieon poll

it's predicted the winner the last 4 elections. The only time they've been wrong is when they predicted Bush would win in 2000!

[kentuck]

7. But who knows which way Independents go ?

Do they split 50/50 ??

[Laelth]

9. From what I've read ...

independents usually favor the challenger 2-1. But what do the pollsters know, anyway? Nov. 2 is the only poll that counts.

:dem:

Kerry on!

-Laelth


Edit:Laelth--added a question mark where appropriate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Retrospective Analysis Should Be Fairly Straightforward And Easy...

We can look at past races and see how the undecideds broke...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. The Incumbent Rule Says Undecideds Break For The Challenger

but like any theory it's not etched in granite...

do a google search on the incumbent rule...

[Laelth]

12. Worthless poll.

Look at this:

"51% of likely voters surveyed would vote for President George W. Bush, 46% would vote for Senator John Kerry, and 2% would vote for Ralph Nader."

2% for Nader (and the previous week's poll said 3% would vote for Nader)? No way! Besides, I've heard a lot of freepers crowing about how, when they're polled, they tell the pollster that they're Democrats voting for Bush. Personally, I don't believe these numbers for a second.

:dem:

Kerry on!

-Laelth