A Disturbing Poll Trend But I think It Will Reverse...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I have looked at the internals for three polls; Zogby, TIME, and the Washington Post...

www.reuters.com

www.time.com

www.washingtonpost.com

They all suggest that the gender gap has shrunk from an advantage among women of about eighteen percent to about ten or eleven percent...

If I was just one poll I would say it's an outlier but the three polls confirm one another...

I watched the polls in 2000 and the same phenomenon was occurring at about the same time then...

The fact that Gore reversed this trend account for his popular vote victory...

This is troubling and needs to be reversed if Kerry is to win...

[missouri dem]

1. Kerry speech today was all about women's issues.

They are on top of it but still you have a good eye.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I Saw The Same Thing In OO

Even at the latter stage of the campaign...


It opened up then... I pray it opens up now...


If you look at those polls Kerry is losing men by around ten which in and of itself is disturbing but not alarming..


What's disturing is Kerry is running even or just a tad bit ahead among women and not enjoying the traditional large Democratic advantage....

I think Clinton was beating Dole by twenty points among women... He broke even among men and that accounts for his eight point win...

[snippy]

21. Clinton may help Kerry with this.

His appearances will be powerful and persuasive and will get lots of media coverage.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. If A Casual Observer Can See This I'm Sure Kerry's Pollsters Saw It Too...

It must be fun to be able to crunch these numbers for aliving...

[lancdem]

2. Actually, an 18-point lead among women

seems awfully large to begin with. I think the Pew poll showing a tie has Kerry leading by 10 among women and Bush by 10 among men. With undecideds going to Kerry, those numbers might move a bit more in his favor. I wouldn't be concerned at this point.

Edit: I just checked that Time poll showing Bush up 51-46. They have his approval rating at 53 percent, which is way too high. Besides, if his rating were 53 percent, Kerry would have no chance of winning anyway becuase incumbents at above 50 percent don't lose.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Here's My Point...

If Kerry is down by ten among men and up by eight among women he's enjoying an eighteen point avantage among women...

[lancdem]

10. I'm not sure about the other polls

but that Time poll showing Bush with a 53 percent approval rating has to be considered suspect. Everyone else has it under 50 percent.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Of Course Bush's Percentage Of The Pop Vote Is A Function Of His Job

Approval but that fluctuates from poll to poll...

[lancdem]

11. I think it fluctuates because some polls of likely voters

sample more Republicans than others. Do you know what the party breakdown is the Time poll?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. They Have Dems And Reps Even In Their Likely Poll

and Dems +2 in their RV polls...

That's a bit off and is important in a tight race...

Women are disproportionately Democrat so increasing or decreasing the amount of Dems in your poll is going to affect the horse race numbers...

[lancdem]

13. Thanks

But as I said, if Bush's approval rating really is 53 percent, there's no point in worrying because Kerry has no shot at winning anyway. It has to be in the 40s for that to happen.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Has To Be 50 Or Below...

There are a few people who will approve of his job and not vote for him and there are a few people who will disapprove of his job and vote for him... The former out of party loyalty and the latter out of fear of change....


I can't get a handle on this election....

[lancdem]

Maybe when we get into the final week

the national polls will start mirroring each other more. All I know is Kerry will win PA and he has an excellent shot at Ohio, and if he wins those two he's in. No Repub has ever won the WH without winning Ohio.

[okieinpain]

3. yeah, but hardball just said that they are tied with military

families. it's going to be tight, just buckle up and get ready for the bumps.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. There's 1,600,000 Active Military And 800,000 Reserves..

I believe...


That only a fraction of women with military ties...

Something else is going on...

[blackcat77]

7. It's been low all year

That's the security mom thing in action.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. That Ain't Good...

nt

[sonicx]

14. i'm confused

what's wrong with Kerry leading women by 10%?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Cuz He's Even Among Women And Running Ten Behind Among Men

nt

[sonicx]

19. in Zogby's poll?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Zogby Doesn't Give Numbers For His Internals...He Just Describes Them...

Maybe his paid subscribers see more...

And he said Bush and Kerry are tied among women...


We need to run as well among women as the Bush* runs among men to win...


Actually we can run a few points behind Bush's percentage of men because women vote in greater numbers...

So if Bush* is up by ten among men we can get away with being up eight or nine among women for a close pop vote victory..

The Democratic party has been living on a gender gap since the Carter-Reagan race....

[sonicx]

28. i find that hard to believe (both time and zogby)

Time had Kerry up near double digits last week. no way he lost it in a week. the party ID samples shifted probably.

And If Zogby had women tied, he should be losing by a lot bigger than 2 points.

Gore won women by about the same amount Bush won men, and got a tiny win in popular vote. If Gore tied in women, he'd have lost by 4 or 5 percent. Zogby has Kerry down 2 overall.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. Not Quite Even...

I don't have the numbers...


but if you are running four ahead among women and eight or nine behind among men because of higher women turnout you're running three or four behind in the horse race...


We are dealing with imprecise measurements...

[sonicx]

33. OK, I still believe that Kerry will do fine among women. cable news was...

beating this drum in semptember about women mysteriously going to Bush. But in early October, Kerry's female support mysteriously came back. I was mostly a reflection of party ID sampling shifts.

All of these huge shifts that some polls show seem impossible, IMO. The country is too divided for Kerry or Bush to gain or lose massive chuckes of support in a week's time without an earth-shattering event to cuase it.

[Bush was AWOL]

17. This is why I think Kerry wins EC and loses Pop. Vote

I think some of the states Gore cruised to victory in 2000 will be closer for Kerry this time around...but Bush will maintain or even possibly strengthen his #'s in the south and states he won. I think Kerry wins this race by slimly holding leads in a lot of Gore states and takes Ohio and New Hampshire.

[missouri dem]

18. The polls are trailing reality

I worked at our Democratic headquarters this morning and had 3
different republican women come in and visit. They were all looking for a reason to
vote for Kerry. I think that all 3 had already made up their minds but
just wanted some reassurance that they would be safe from godless
muslems or that their taxes weren't going up. Yesterday had a lady come in
and say that she was an independent but usually voted republican. She
wanted a signs and bumperstickers. I figured while I had her i would
talk up the rest of the dem. ticket. She said oh don't bother I will be
voting a straight ticket.
The undecided are breaking and all toward Kerry. Unless rove can
manufacture a terra attack it will be a landslide.

[sonicx]

20. did the republican women say they'd think about kerry?

[missouri dem]

24. More than that I am sure that he has their vote.

One of the ladies is a long time cato institute and heritage foundation donor and w scares her to death. Enough to vote for Kerry.

[tishaLA]

22. Some polls have him outperforming Gore among women

notably the AP poll. It was discussed on Lou Dobbs today.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Then He Should Win The Pop Vote

As long as Bush* doen't increase his margin among men enough to offset it...

[sonicx]

29. I saw one poll (newsweek) that had kerry winning me and gore winning

women. I had a good laugh with that one.

[Leilani]

30. I have been watching the numbers on men & women too

Gore won women by 11%; Bush won men by 11%.

Some polls are showing Bush with good female numbers; others show Kerry with a good lead. I really think its too soon to say, because the polls are showing different things.

Another demographic to watch: Latinos, Hispanics, if you prefer.

Bush took 30% in 2000; Rove has been aiming for 40% because he thinks that will give them a win.

[DaveinMD]

27. what about

Democracy Corps, AP, Pew, NBC and CBS, IPSOS. The polls are all over the place. Some have us up. Some have us down. The polls that are tied, show us leading with women by 10.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. You Answered Your Own Question....

Our lead is a function of the gender gap...

The smaller the gap the smaller the margin of victory and vice versa...

Those polls where we are ahead show the gap...

Where the gap is small we are losing....

We need to do as well among women as Bush* does among men...

[DaveinMD]

34. my point

was that the polls you mentioned are not the only polls out there. Therefore, they shouldn't be used to illustrated that the gender gap isn't there. There are other reputable polls that say other things.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Hopefully You Are Right...

The gender gap probably explains more about presidential politics than any other phenomenon besides the gap among white and non white voters...

[DuaneBidoux]

36. Yea' but weren't "they" all saying just three weeks ago that threre

was NO gender gap left? Could be just normal static.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Alot Of The Variance In Tracking Polls Is Noise..

I'm projecting to election day...

It'so simple it's silly...

Kerry has to do well among women to offset Bush*'s lead among men...

[cally]

38. I think Kerry can win women by large margins

but I've been surprised at his campaign. He's not targetting women. I think he will this last week and win back a huge lead with women.