Hate to be pessimistic, but you all are overlooking an important fact.

[Rex_Goodheart]

I just read on this board somebody saying "well, it was 51-45 Bush over Gore at this time 4 years ago, and we all saw what happened."

Yes, I did see what happened: the undecideds went with the INCUMBENT over the challenger. The devil they knew...

This election is bumming me out. Face it: when 9 out of 10 polls say Bush is in the lead, well, he's in the lead. Those polls are not all corrupt.

I've never had such a low opinion of my fellow Americans before, but that Bush can be polling almost half of this country at this time is evidence of widespread stupidity.

A few more market days like today might swing things in Kerry's favor, but damn my portfolio can't take much more of this.

[wiggs]

1. The other thing about 2000 is...

A couple of days before the election, George's DUI became public in the news.

[RoyGBiv]

2. What the hell are you talking about?

There was no INCUMBENT in the last election, not in the same sense that those statistics that mention it were meaning.

Furthermore, the point of mentioning the 51-45 Bush over Gore poll is that this is less of a lead than those polls four years ago gave Shrub, yet Gore won the popular vote.

[Sydnie]

20. And we have lots of new registered voters that aren't being polled.

I have a good feeling about things right now. We are watching and shinning lights on misdeeds this time. Kerry is not Gore ...

Try to relax if you can, or better yet, put your angst to good use -- go out and canvas, join a phone bank, hold a sign in front of your local favorite breakfast/lunch/dinner spot, visit a local senior center and educate them on the issues.

Don't mope - emote!

[NMDemDist2]

3. first of all, Gore wasn't an incumbant, second an incumbant

president usually ends up with (within a percentage point) of the final poll numbers

Bush is polling at 47-48% which leaves 52% for Kerry (or 51% if 3rd party gets 1% which is usual)

I can live with Kerry 51% - Bush 48% Nader 1%

can't you?

[Wapsie B]

4. I know I should just let this post sink

but I've just gotta say nice try.

[ogradda]

9. great minds think alike

n/t

[speedoo]

5. You're basing your "fact" on a false premise.

Gore was not the incumbent in 2000. He ran a campaign that intentionally distanced himself from Clinton.

[okieinpain]

24. thank you, and mr. kerry is not making that mistake. he's also

does not have the gun problem. I was listening to hardball and for the first time ever the guest said that things are breaking kerry's way. and that the president will have to very careful on what battleground states he wins.

I love these polls, they are beautiful. kerry has done exactly what he needed to do. you have to realize that bush is the incumbent war-time president. let me say that again, bush is the incumbent war-time president, a war in which we were attacked and had 3000 citzens killed on national tv. and the best he can do is 48%, Bush is in deep dodo, that's why you're seeing drudge post pages about thk holding a beer, or that she said laura hasn't had a real job. they are scared shitless.

[jrthin]

6. If you hate to be pessimestic...

DON'T.

[Rex_Goodheart]

15. Thanks, everybody. Actually, I was baiting....

I'm looking for reassurance. The point about Gore distancing himself from Clinton is a good one.

Like I said this morning, I'm driving myself crazy with this election. I need an 11 day pill.

[Nimble_Idea]

19. well go take it

some people need to stfu. But I ain't saying who.

[MADem]

33. HEAR, HEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well SAID, JrThin, WELL SAID!!!!

:toast: :toast: :toast:

[sonicx]

7. Gore is not an Incumbent

btw, the ABC/WP poll is crap.

go to www.mydd.com and the rea the entry about it.

[fishface]

8. You're either confused or a freeper.

Gore was the only one that could have been considered 'incumbent' but even he wasn't.

[NYCGirl]

10. Four years ago there WAS NO incumbent!

How could they go with the incumbent as you said?

[lancdem]

11. Al Gore was not an incumbent

I'm not sure what you mean by that. And 9 out of 10 polls don't have Bush ahead. The vast majority show a tied race, with some giving Kerry a small lead and some Bush.

[NEDem]

12. Nice try.

But it ain't gonna work tonight.

[teach1st]

13. Golly, gee! I'm so skeered and disillusioned now.

Thank you for showing me the truth.

I'll have to forget all about voting and go back to hugging trees.

[missouri dem]

14. it's going to be a landslide for

Kerry! quit watching the polls and the stock ticker and get busy
GOTV.

[Rex_Goodheart]

18. missouri dem,

I'm going to have a big sign on my car on election day:

FREE RIDE TO THE POLLS FOR DEMOCRATS

Also, will be passing out 1000 pro-Kerry flyers next week in the area.

I'm TRYING. I'm really trying.

[missouri dem]

27. I hope that is true and that you are not a troll.

I live in Missouri and we say Show Me. What I am seeing in rural Missouri is that the ground is shaking and the landslide is near. Our internal polling at the phone bank is a clear shift of the undecideds and soft republicans to Kerry. You can take it to the bank.

[aquart]

16. Rex, dear, there was NO incumbent that year.

And Gore wasn't a known devil. He was a well-known excellent man. So he won the popular vote. But he was too naturally good to understand Enron's desperation and Republican greed. So he stood still while the nation was stolen in a judicial coup.

Do you know ONE person who did NOT vote for Bush before who IS voting for him now? He has lost most of the military. Lost labor. Lost Muslims. Lost fiscal conservatives. Who is still voting for him? Where are his new votes?

Yes, they are trying to steal the election again. We know that. That is why we need overpowering overwhelming turnout and lots and lots and lots of persnickety lawyers.

NEVER AGAIN.

[cubsfan forever]

37. Eloquently put!

I completely agree with you. If we vote, we win.

Professor 2

[sangh0]

17. Thanks for the laugh, my newest friend

Unfortunately, the polls have consistently understated the performance of the Democratic candidate.

[demwing]

21. Bad Analogy

There was no incumbent in 2000. Neither men had Presidential experience.

There are score of posts here explaining the satte of the polls. Read them

If you have, but you ignore them, fine.

Go be bummed out.


I'll see you on here Novemebre 3rd, after the difficult work is done, and we can toast to President Kerry.

[Ksec]

22. Geebus, Talk about spirit killin posts.... Do you work over there.?

[Leilani]

23. Right, & the wolves are going to eat us all!!!

EOM

[gcomeau]

25. Gore was NOT an incumbent.

There is a world of difference between a SITTING PRESIDENT running for RE-ELECTION (an incumbent) and the guy who just happened to be the last president's second in command trying to convince people to let him sit in the big chair now.

-Grant

[BillZBubb]

26. You are correct: Gore was the de facto incumbent.

He represented the party that was in power. Even so, he distanced himself from Clinton, so he wasn't exactly seen as pushing Clinton's policies. Therefore, it's tough to argue the voters moved to the incumbent en masse.

I'm also not convinced you can say the Chimp is in the lead just because most polls say so. First off, there aren't really that many independent polls. A lot of them use data provided by the same pollster. Second, they all have flaws, and most of those are flawed in several similar ways that favor Repugs. They use phony "likely voter" standards, they use arbitrary Repug/Dem turnout guesses, and they don't count younger voters sufficiently.

I've always had a low opinion of my fellow Americans and the fact that this race is even close only confirms my position. Even so, Kerry's position right now is not that bad. Wins in Ohio and Wisconsin will win this thing in the EC.

[tedoll78]

28. Hi Rex.

We're seeing a diversion between the national and state polls.. in Kerry's favor.

This week, we've seen a litany of polling showing kerry narrowly ahead of Bush in the key state of Ohio. I'm almost confident enough to put it as likely as Pennsylvania, which is seeming like a 90% chance of Kerry win right now.

We're seeing that Oregon is falling into the Kerry column. This pretty much seals the West Coast, plus Hawai'i.

The NorthEast seems more solid than before. Several polls show Kerry winning New Hampshire by about 5%, and that's with Nader on the ballot. New Hampshire would be a welcome extra set of 4EVs.

Illinois and Michgan look solid. True, there's a Michigan poll that looks hairy, but the overwhelming tide of polling there puts Kerry ahead consistently-but-narrowly. The GOTV machine will seal the deal there.

Minnesota has been trending our way ever since the debates. This is a state where Nader nabbed 5% and still had Gore winning by 2%. We can safely assume that the Nader factor won't be as large this time around. Add "The Body's" endorsement to the momentum here as well.

So, as I see things, it will all come down to these states:
- Iowa
- Wisconsin
- New Mexico
- Nevada

With all of the states I listed above as Kerry victories, Kerry would have 262EVs.

Iowa is a bit troubling, but there's reason for hope: 50000 new voters have registered as Dems this year, with only 9000 for Republicans. Early balloting is supposedly helping Kerry big-time as well thus far.

Wisconsin now appears to be trending in Kerry's direction, according to recent polls (Zogby, WI Public Radio, etc). And the senate race has cooled-down, with Feingold taking a nice lead; this could serve to suppress GOP turnout a tiny bit.

New Mexico.. I have no idea what's going on. Supposedly Governor Richardson is really popular, but I've seen the polls all over the place.

Nevada's early voting, despite some nasty GOP tricks, is going in favor of the Dems thus far. Dems led the GOP in the first day of early balloting turnout by about an average of 5%. That's very good news for us.

So where is Bush making-up ground on the popular vote?
New York, perhaps. He might be gaining from tap-dancing on the graves of 3000 killed in 2001.
New Jersey seems to be a single-digit race, but still safe for Kerry. (Gore won it by 15%.)
Tennessee. A recent poll gave Bush a 22% lead over Kerry. I'm skeptical that he's winning by such a margin, but he's probably doing much better now that he isn't fighting a TN native..
Other red states in general. Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska.. I've seen polls with Kerry being blown out of the water in these states. Too bad for Bush.. extra votes in these states won't do him any good..

Meanwhile, we have underpolling of those with cell phones.
We have undecideds ready for their historically-predicted break of 2-to-1.
And we've outregistered the GOP pretty much everywhere where it matters. It was reported today, for example, that there are 1.1 million newly-registered voters in Florida.. with heavy concentrations of citydwellers and young people.

So buck-up. There are only 11 days left, and we're in pretty good shape where it counts. I won't lie to you and call it "rosy," but I will say that I'm more comfortable than I was two weeks ago.

Cheers!

[goclark]

31. I have a question about Early Voting

When it is said that 5% more democrats voted does that mean...

They are known Democrats, identified on the rolls as Democrats

or

Could there be registered Republicans that voted Democratic when they got inside that booth?

I believe there will be more Republicans voting for Kerty than vise versa.

[tedoll78]

34. Naahh.

It was just a vote-by-party-id type of statistic.

Of all who had voted by Day Three of Early Voting, about 41% were Republicans, and about 46% were Democrats. The rest were other/independents.

No actual voting who-vote-for-whom information has been released yet.

[goclark]

36. So we have a good change of our numbers

being even higher -right?

[DemocracyInaction]

29. It's where they fall in the electoral map

Bush has a 14 zillion point lead in all those gleaming red states of the deep south through Oklahoma, onward to Nebraska and up into the Dakotas. And as David Gergen pointed out that gives him a nice looking lead in the polls. But as Gergen also pointed out, Kerry is doing okay in the battleground states and thus we are setting up for the scenerio of Bush winning the popular vote but Kerry (in his opinion) having a strong shot of winning the EV's. Nice try to surpess the Dem's enthusiasm......ain't workin' this time, buckooo

[snippy]

30. Being the current Vice President is a severe disadvantage when running

for President. Not counting Vice Presidents who became President because of the death of the President and later won reelection, only 5 Vice Presidents have been elected President. Since the 12th amendment was ratified only Martin Van Buren and George H. W. Bush won the Presidential election running as the incumbent Vice President.

[camero]

32. Fascism on the march and you worry about your portfolio?

9 out of 10 corporate polls are just that. Corporate polls. Word on the street is a much better indicator. And no, brown-nosing white collar workers is not the word on the street.

[Kierkegaard]

35. A few polls a campaign does not make.

Kerry didn't just fall out of an apple tree. He's is a career politician. He has some extremely competent people around him. Not all of them, mind you, but plenty. This is what they do for a living.

Have some faith and get to work...