Craig Crawford predicts a Kerry victory on Nov 2

[59millionmorons]

http://www.nytimes.com/cq/2004/10/22/news-1395890.html

No flip-flopping here. I think the Democratic nominee will win the presidential election on Nov. 2. I don't even think it will take weeks of recounting to confirm this.

The scariest thing about writing a campaign column is that on the eve of an election you are expected to make a prediction. What good is spending much of the past year-and-a-half on the road covering a campaign if you cannot offer an educated guess about the outcome?

Forgive me if I take a pass on the mind-numbing chess game of mixing and matching battleground states to reach a mathematical conclusion. The final phase of this campaign is like projecting the path of a hurricane. I cannot predict its longitude and latitude on Election Day, but I do see the momentum headed in Kerry's direction.

[rockydem]

1. who the fuck is craig crawford?

the name sounds like a puke name.

[59millionmorons]

2. If you dont know who Craig Crawford is

You may need more political seasoning.

[RobertSeattle]

3. He's the Congressional Quarterly guy you seen on MSNBC and Cspan alot

His mug is at the top of this page.

He's OK by my standards.

http://www.cq.com/corp/show.do?page=crawford/crawford_current

[calico1]

8. I've seen him on Olberman.

He seems fair. And I like his prediction. I think he is right. A lot of people want a fresh start, not more of the same.

[annerevere]

4. Craig Crawford is the editor of Hotline

A very expensive political report that I would love to afford to buy. The guy knows politics.

Thanks, demdem. Yours is the best post I've read all day.

[blm]

5. That's an odd reply to Crawford's assessment.

.

[flpoljunkie]

11. An astute analyist for CQ and Hotline whose parents are yellow dog Dems!

They live in Florida and are going out every day doing everything they can to help people get to the early voting sites. He let this out when he was on Imus recently.

[Rose Siding]

6. He certainly didn't show his hand about this before

The last several times I've seen or read him sounded like gossip column pieces.

[phirili]

7. Crawford is a good guy; sometimes he whores for Imus by cracking jokes

about Kerry.

[SayitAintSo]

9. He has recently made this turn ...

I seem to recall that even a few weeks/ a month ago he was very pro Bush in his analysis. I saw him turning against Bush on Imus in the past weeks. This is interesting. Good news...

[Shopaholic]

10. He's on Countdown a lot

and although he will make Kerry/Democratic cracks, what he says is usually pretty accurate.

[phirili]

12. Very true.

[DeepModem Mom]

13. kick

[CreekDog]

14. He said a long time ago that it would be Kerry and not close...

I think it was back in May.