The statisticians are saying that this election is trending KERRY!!!!!!!!!

[Gaffey Duck]

Professor Sam Wang of Princeton: http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

Professor Andrea Moro of the University of Minnesota:
http://www.econ.umn.edu/~amoro/Research/presprobs.html

[dogtag]

1. I check out Sam Wang's map every day.

I hope it stays like this...or gets even bluer!

[Sparkly]

3. That's one beautiful map!!

:bounce:

[MoonRiver]

23. Sure is!

:toast: :D

[AP]

4. which state has the highest density of EV's? NJ?

[Radio-Active]

8. looks like either RI or DC..

[TheDebbieDee]

11. Wouldn't that be California, with 54 electoral votes?

[ender]

18. nj has highest pop density in the union...

so yeh, probably the densest ev count, too.

[aden_nak]

20. Probably. We've got the highest density of people.

And one of the highest densities of air, as well. *cough*

[JuniorPlankton]

7. Nice map!

[Roland99]

12. Damn....I read that WAY wrong!

Thought said you check out Sam's Wang...


ooof.


I need some sleep




Nice map, though. ;)

[dogtag]

21. I don't even know Sam! Go to sleep... pleasant dreams.

[AP]

25. I look at that map and my impulse is to connect East with West with a...

...bridge of Democrats. Would it go through NV, UT, CO and NE? Or maybe AZ, OK, MO?

Where would we drive that Golden Spike? Kansas City? Oklahoma City?

[On the Road]

28. George W Needs So Many Swing States

that I can't imagine why his campaign is taking it easy. Maybe they're believing their own hype. I hope so.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

2. thanks!

[Lefta Dissenter]

5. Hey!

THAT's one I'll pay attention to! :D

[JuniorPlankton]

6. Please ignore the reference to statistics

It's hackery.

There are some valid arguments about why Kerry will win: increased turnout, may be cell phone users etc. But there is no data to quantify this stuff. Anytime people start talking about probabilities, you can ignore them: Garbage In Garbage Out.

(And don't even get me started on the whole "margin of error" thing in the polls)

:kick:

[humanbeing]

27. with all due respect...

I don't think you know what you're talking about. These sites are factoring in undecideds, which have a clear and consistent historical trend. That's data, baby. That's quantification.

And don't 'get you started' on margin of error? Do you know something about it that the science of statistics doesn't? Please share.

[TruthIsAll]

9. Don't forget me...

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel

[NewYorkerfromMass]

19. How do you like this map?

[NAG CHAMPAYON]

10. My first post to celebrate my first vote

been lurking here for months...amused by your posts...getting amped to vote for the first time...

i was recently quoted in a local rag as saying:

"This election? Fucking tap shoe candidates...a smooth ballet of
existence slipping. A suite composed by the highest. The inebriated. The wealth-drunk powermen. The Executive Club's soft dancers of the uranium age. The company dancing the end. The choreography of a thousand lost empires. A CEO death march.

"Oh, heavy element!" Ginsberg once howled at White Sands plutonium
facility during an anti-nuclear protest in the seventies. I've never been able to forget the fire in his voice. It has always been now. All of time is right now. Infinity fits on the head of a pin...and Einstein is alive...In the bellowing of death...In the billowing radiation. Right here. Destiny is laughing - cause Fate don't care.

Laughing...at the debates...at the candidates...what happened to the
humans?!? The reptilian overlord and his "opponent" spell out the same
disasters - dead humans - dead nations - dead earth...

we lack true leaders...progressive, revolutionary vision...but for the
first time in my life I will vote...I will stand for a man i've never met. I just hope that's enough...the change in president might not be as drastic as we need...but it is an essential step toward our future."


hope to not offend any Kerry supporters...but he got my vote and that is what matters!!!

i am happy to be a new member of DU...keep it going...revolution.

[crispini]

13. Go you!

and welcome to DU! :hi:

[Roland99]

14. Welcome to DU, NAG!

[Zero Gravitas]

15. Great nick!

:)

[shelley806]

24. Welcome! and thanks for your post- a poet--dear to my heart

I'm new too. I came to this site to vote (for hours on-line) in the debates, and I've learned so much at DU. Great place to vent too, and witness the venting of others.

[newyawker99]

26. Hi NAG CHAMPAYON!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[mvd]

16. Despite what the national polls say..

The important thing is that we're doing well in PA (ahead,) OH (ahead,) and FL (tied or only slightly behind.)

Rasmussen has us down in OH, but I think that's an outlier (no surprise here.)

[Roland99]

17. Wow...OH and FL could both go Bush but if Kerry took NV and split CO

Kerry would still win!

[Jack_Dawson]

22. "Sniff" - That is the most beautiful map I've ever seen

:cry: