Some help please on turnout statistic

[DemsUnited]

Pretty sure I read somewhere that every 1% increase over last years 55% turnout favors Kerry to an incredible degree, to the point that if we get a 58% turnout rate, it's almost certainly a Kerry blowout.

Am I misquoting? Some help please!

[Goldmund]

1. I believe that, historically, turnout always favors Democrats

A majority of the population has always prefered the Democrats, but the Republicans have always been the more dilligent voters.

On another note, I heard one of the Harball panel talking heads the other night (I think it was Andrea Mitchell) predict a 65% turnout. She didn't go on and say what that would mean in terms of affecting the candidates' chances, of course -- but if she is right, Kerry will win huge.