Zogby/Reuters Bush 47 Kerry 45 Friday Oct 22.

[jezebel]

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6581641

Considering the THK flap of the past 2 days, I don't think this is too bad.

[Zynx]

1. It's also purely in the range of normal variance.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I Want Better News....

nt

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Yeah, I was five minutes from going to sleep our West

And I stumble onto this, a 1 point net loss and in the wrong number. It would be much better if Kerry had dropped to 44 than Bush go up to 47.

Well, this will allow the media to focus on Zogby again; "President Bush gains a point for the second consecutive day..."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The state of this race is troubling...

All races are unique and the only comfort I can take is the Dems were in this position or worse at this time in 00....

[Teaser]

11. Why?

Bush is well under 50% for God's sake.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Theoretically Every One Point Shift Is About 1,110,000 People

nt

[rjbny62]

don't worry, * ceiling is 47%

[emulatorloo]

18. Um, it is in the Margin of Error - & see other numbers on GWB performance

<snip>

Bush led Kerry 47-45 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, within the poll's margin of error. Bush had a 46-45 percent lead the previous day.

<snip>

Then let's look at these numbers:

<snip>

The number of likely voters who thought Bush deserved re-election was 46 percent, while the number who wanted someone new was 49 percent. Only 45 percent rated Bush's presidential performance as excellent or good, while 54 percent said it was fair or poor.

<snip>

[kerry2win]

3. some good news

45% approval and 46% deserve to be re-elected

[emulatorloo]

19. 54% say Bush job performance fair or poor - WWDTD?

What would Donald Trump do?

[newyawker99]

31. Hi kerry2win!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[mvd]

7. Looks like the corp. media succeeded in giving * a small bump

The fact that they were tied among women tells me this was THK-induced. This bump should be erased soon.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. where does it say we are tied among women

if we are tied among women we'd be down by five because we are down ten among men...

[mvd]

9. Here

"The poll found the candidates essentially tied among many voter blocs, including independents, women, Catholics and military families."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. TY

That contradicts the Marist, Pew, and NBC polls which show Kerry with a ten point lead...


If we do not carry the woman vote by ten percent or so I don't see how we can win given the fact that Bush* is leading by that percentage or greater among men...


It would be helpful if every poll showed it's demographic breakdowns...

[Teaser]

13. If its tied among women=outlier sample

because no one else shows it.

It's easy to figure out what's going on.
Stop trying to atttribute these little bumps and jiggles to
news events. The only correlation is that its impossible
to actually come up with one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I Know That Post Wasn't To Me...

I am trained in social science and social science research and I'm familiar with the concepts of statistical noise and artifacts but it is impossible to be objective about this election...

I don't know if the republic can stand four more years of Bush...

[mvd]

29. Well, some other polls showed a * uptick, too

I hope you're right that it's just statistical noise. But even if it isn't, I said how I'm not worried.

[unfrigginreal]

12. A wise Kos diarist has some advice for all of us

by DemFromCT
Fri Oct 22nd, 2004 at 12:09:14 GMT

As you know, there are two kinds of polls: either they are of the "Aha!" or "OhMyGod" variety. 'Aha' polls tell you what you already know, whereas 'OhMyGod' polls generally need to be debunked as partisan (and need to be analyzed via the internals to show they lean one way or the other).

For example, if you look at the Bush number and ignore the Kerry number, you can move today's 'OhMyGod' Zogby poll (Bush 47-Kerry 45) easily into the 'aha' category by realizing that Bush can't get over 48 and Kerry's numbers (with 6% undecided) don't matter (a powerful combo of the undecided and 50% corollaries of the incumbent rules).

The Zogster himself says, "President Bush picked up another point today, but 48 percent has been the ceiling reached by either candidate in the last couple of weeks."

Try to keep your polling thoughts and finds here as long as this thread is visible. And remember the incumbent rules. These stress-reducing techniques will be useful the next 10 days and will reduce the number of unnecessary diaries.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/22/8914/8720

[WI_DEM]

14. THK flap? why wasn't there a GWB flap over Pat Robertson's comments?

[Catt03]

16. Right

[Tesibria]

15. Read the "fine print" re: Zogby Polls

https://interactive.zogby.com/clickon/products.dbm (subscription required)

President Bush has moved two points ahead of Democrat John Kerry (47%-45%), but the race for the White House has tightened among several key constituencies, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The poll results are reminiscent of the presidential race in 2000 during this period

(Tes Note: On this day in 2000, When Al Gore was 2 pts ahead; Note also that actual numbers are 46.7 - 45.0).
…
President Bush and Senator Kerry’s favorable/unfavorable ratings have not shifted since yesterday. The President remains at 54% favorable, with his unfavorable rating at 45%. Senator Kerry remains at 53% favorable and his unfavorable rating stays at 45%. …
…
The President’s overall job performance rating has edged up a point to 46%, while his disapproval number holds at 54%. …
…
The right track/wrong track numbers are unchanged from yesterday, with 44% saying the country is going in the right direction, while 49% continue to say the country is on the wrong track for the fourth day in a row. …
…
Mr. Bush’s re-elect numbers hold at 46% for the third day in a row, while those calling for someone new rise to 50%....
…
“President Bush picked up another point today, but 48% has been the ceiling reached by either candidate in the last couple of weeks. I will obviously watch in the next couple of days to see if the president can break through. What’s of special interest today is that the candidates are pretty much tied among several key groups: Independents, Catholics, women, and military families. While Kerry leads by double-digits among 18-24 year olds, the President leads by double-digits among 25-34 year olds. It will be important for the President to keep making inroads among younger voters. Right now the candidates are nearly tied among voters over 65—another ominous sign for Kerry.

“But, the President still gets a negative job performance rating and re-elect. Kerry leads by 14% among voters who have registered in the last six months and the two candidates are in a virtual dead-heat among those who say they have already voted.

“Among undecided voters, only 29% give the President a positive job performance rating, and only 18% say the President deserves to be re-elected.

[JCMach1]

17. Actually, this poll smells a lot like a Kerry landslide

"Among undecided voters, only 29% give the President a positive job performance rating, and only 18% say the President deserves to be re-elected."

If UNDECIDEDS break that way, then Kerry will end up with 51-53% of the vote on election day...

[emulatorloo]

22. Don't know about landslide, but yeah, these numbers look DAMN good!

Best we can get out of any poll is trends . . . and this is looking good for us.

[unfrigginreal]

24. It's looking good

More of the fine print - the most important issue Jobs/Economy by 7pts. over Iraq War 26-19. Guess who wins that issue. ;-)

[louis c]

25. If 6% are undecided

and only 18% of these believe he should be re-elected.

And his Job Approval number is 28% among undies.

Do the math, Kerry has to pick up 5% to 2% on undies, add that the new Regs. are breaking to Kerry by 14%, and you can see that we are ahead.

The numbers behind the numbers are very good for us. We just have to keep the raw figure below 4%.

I agree with Karl Rove on one point, if Bush does not hold an actual lead of 4% or more, he's done.

The closer we can get to even, the better off we are. If we can show a plus of any kind just before election, the president's goose is cooked.

[Tesibria]

21. Rasmussen - 16 battleground states: Kerry up by 1.6

Rasmussen's 7-day rolling average for the 16 battleground states continues to show Kerry's slow-but-steady gains over the past seven days (tho' for the last 2 days, Bush's numbers are increasing as well).

Date- 10/21-10/20--10/19-10/18--10/17-10/16--10/15
Bush- 47.0%-47.1%-46.3%-46.1%-46.2%-46.4%-46.4%
Kerry-48.6%-48.1%-48.8%-48.6%-48.1%-47.2%-46.9%

[devinsgram]

23. John Zogby was on AAR this morning.

He did have good news which is he said there are about 6% undecideds and the one thing he knows is that they do not want *. They know what he's all about and they don't like him, the problem is they are not sure about Kerry. So there is where it stands. The undecideds. He said most will make up their minds by halloween or even on Nov. 2, a good chance they will break for Kerry, so take heart, this will go our way.

AAR also had a call from a young lady who went both to Florida and PA and did canvassing and she said the polls don't even come close to what is really going on out there. She had spoken personlly with a lot of new voters and they will be voting for Kerry. They are smarter than you think.

[mzmolly]

26. I'm a bit troubled by this trend.

*sigh*

[DemocracyInaction]

27. Want to throw out something here --been kind of biting tongue

for a good month now. Zogby himself addressed this (and I see from a poster above that he was touching on it in an interview today). Zogby said a few days ago that like 51% or so don't think Bush should be re-elected BUT that Kerry's numbers stay around 45-46 so they are not sold on him. We are ASSUMING (and sounds like in that interview posted above Zogby is sort of biting his nails on it too)that they will then go Kerry. It's not that simple. Some may just as well go Bush because of the damn terrorist/Iraq thing. Gergen today pointed out (and you see Zogby has has tied in the women category) that the women thing is dancing around this "security" business. I think here is a good chunk of what is going on right now. That 6% could go anyway and this year, nobody knows where. You can't base it on other years this time. I'm more comfortable with "new voters" than I am with these 'undecided'.

[Rose Siding]

32. Historically, 82% to 86% of undecideds go to the challenger.

According to two different studies show that of undecideds, 82-86% go for the challenger. If this election is different, it would buck the established norm.

[crispini]

28. Everybody, repeat after me.

It's within the margin of error.
It's within the margin of error.
It's within the margin of error.
It's within the margin of error.
It's within the margin of error.
It's within the margin of error.
It's within the margin of error.
It's within the margin of error.
It's within the margin of error.
It's within the margin of error.
It's within the margin of error.
It's within the margin of error.
It's within the margin of error.

Thank you. Now go canvass or phonebank or something.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

30. I predict Bush's ceiling is 47 to 48 %

Kerry will pull minimum 49.