10/21 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 314 EV, 97% WIN PROB, 51.5% OF THE VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Inland]

1. From your spreadsheet to God's ear n/t

[mom cat]

2. Beeeeeeutiful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bleacher Creature]

3. Thanks TIA?

Not to sound greedy, but what do we need in order to get it back to 99.9% ?

[TruthIsAll]

4. For Kerry to have a 99.99% win probability...

he needs a projection of 52.87% of the popular vote. He can get there by winning 86% of the undecideds.

He will then have an expected EV total of 337.

[elperromagico]

5. So, assuming a 3% allocation to third-party candidates,

would that give Kerry 49.96% to Bush's 47.04%?

[TruthIsAll]

6. The model is projecting a 3% winning spread as of now.

Your 3% estimate for third party candidates is too high.

Right now, my best estimate is 51.5-47-1.5

[elperromagico]

7. I would guess that, combined, Nader, Cobb, Badnarik, Peroutka,

and the others would pull somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.5%. But that's just an estimate on my part.

[NEDem]

8. kick

[Steelangel]

9. **kick**

[SayitAintSo]

10. Thanks TIA ... been wondering where you were ....

Thanks for being the "poll" watcher/doer... Great work!!!

:bounce:

[Raenelle]

11. Me too. Thanks, and wondering where you were.

I always look for your analyses. You're a treasure here. And I trust you a billion times more than the cable whores.

[kostya]

12. Here's another one I like, more geeky!

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

Kerry On,

K B-)

[TexasSissy]

13. I just don't understand these election models that you post.

[TruthIsAll]

18. Ignore the theory, then. Just look at the current numbers and projections.

If you have not taken a course in Prob & Statistics 101, I can understand your problem in following all the analysis.

Just focus on what makes sense to you.

[Demi_Babe]

14. awesome!

[shivaji]

15. Can we relax a little now?

[bush equals idiot]

16. Are these being factored in?

What the four million overseas ballots are going to add for Kerry? There has been a record numbers of non military overseas voters requesting ballots. Expected to be huge toward Kerry.

The Pentagon even shut down their registering website to try to stop it. Now they are trying to drag their feet in getting the ballots out to prevent them from being returned on time. The Kerry legal beagles are on this case already.

Have you factored these into your model? If not, it's even much better than what your models show.

[TruthIsAll]

17. No, they are not factored in. I use state and national polls, period.

But as I have said before, I suspect my projections are conservative for Kerry. I say this for a number of reasons.

Your's is one of them.

[The true liberal]

19. about time

I been waiting 3 long years 4 the good news!!

[endnote]

20. Do you realize that this kind of BS simulations may end up

Making some people stay home instead of voting ? Why should one vote if it's raining out there and Kerry is almost certain to win ?... Besides, you are making thousands of assumptions...

[Kathleen04]

21. That's unfair.

If someone sees an election model and decides to get lazy and stay home, knowing how close this race is going to be, than they're just ignorant. First, this model doesn't show a landslide victory or anything of the sort, so I don't think people are going to get the impression that they can just stay home. Secondly, I don't think the type of people who read DU are apathetic enough to disregard their right to vote after reading someone's election projections.

If you have problems with the poster's calculations than by all means raise those issues, but I think your attack is baseless.

[TruthIsAll]

22. You did NOT read the model: ONE assumption: Kerry wins 60% undecided vote

THOUSANDS OF ASSUMPTIONS ?

If you are going to be critical, know the facts.