Norman Lear said this on CNN this morning.

[slater71]

Some reporter-ette asked him about the election and if he thought there would be any surprises. He said that he thought the young vote is really under estimated this year. He continued to say that he has never in all his years seen the collage people so energized as this year and that they could be the tipping point. He said they are not polled as most of them have cell phones so they do not show up in the polling. He could be right.

[tomfodw]

1. They are being too greatly discounted

I read an analysis this morning that pointed out that Gallup is predicting only 14% of the electorate will be young, whereas it has not been less than 17% the past two elections. They're doing the same thing with African-American and Latin-American voters - predicting their turnout will be less than it has been in recent years. Not sure what their justification is. Maybe they want to discourage certain populations from voting.

I'm not saying this will lead to an election result greatly different from the polls. One can hope, but hope is not a plan. Our best strategy is still to try and spur a record turnout.

[DefenseLawyer]

2. Caller ID

may do more to skew polling than cell phones, although I have no data to support it. But just as an observation I would say caller ID is very prevalent and many people who have it simply don't answer unrecognized numbers or names. If you assume, again no data just an assumption, that younger people are more likely to embrace new technology, Caller ID would also skew polling older.

[in_cog_ni_to]

3. He's exactly right!

The college students may very well be the tipping point. A HUGE tipping point. :bounce: