Presidential Election and the Stock Market (Dow Jones)

[northzax]

I was watching one of the business shows on Maryland Public television last night, and they had this chap on from a brokerage who said, in not so many words, that the DJIA will do better if Bush is reelected, but Bonds will do well under Kerry. not suprising.

However, he next said that he had just completed a study of all the post-wwII elections, and if the market could predict the winner. In years that the incumbent party kept the White House, the DJIA rose 8.5 percent between the end of the first convention and the election. In year the challenger won, the market averaged around 3% gains. BUT THEY WERE ALWAYS GAINS. this year? -3%.

oops.

[Hav]

1. .

In 2000 I heard similar theories. If the stock market doesn't really go up in the weeks before the election, the challenger usually wins and therefore they predicted a Bush win :/. (something like that)

[olddem43]

2. In my experience, stock markets predictions are about as useful

as astrology. Also, any analysis is almost entirely Monday morning quarterbacking.

[pretzel4gore]

3. when something horrible happens, dow jumps

the very fact the DJIA rose and fell with rumours of war or peace says something is very wrong with the system; so biased towards brute force etc that human society simply cannot progress w/out costing dearly those least able to pay(?)....'happy capitalism' indeed!

[northzax]

4. I agree,but it'd durely more relevqant than

using the redskins' last home game as a predicter. The fact is, this is a trend that has held true since 1940, while I wouldn't bank on it, the more trends point to Kerry, the better, no?