Zogby: K leads (big) in new reg. - * (barely) leads in early voting

[Tesibria]

Per Zogby:

“It's still neck and neck, folks, and targeting is intense. With Bush and Kerry now tied among seniors, small wonder that Kerry is pushing hard on social security. Recall that in 2000 when Gore faced the same dilemma, he closed out the race winning seniors pressing the social security button. Bush’s lead among armed forces’ families is strong—maybe Sinclair hears the call to reinforce. Similarly, Kerry’s growing young voter appeal can only be helped by the ‘draft.’ Two new items to note: Among newly registered voters Kerry leads 52% to 38%; among those who have already voted, Bush leads 50% to 48%. These two groups bear watching.”

https://interactive.zogby.com/clickon/products.dbm (subscription)

[ALago1]

1. Which states/counties have had early voting?

Is it an ominous sign that Bush has a slight lead, or good news considering the counties in questions?

[DemFromMem]

9. Tennessee is voting now

[Atman]

2. Early votes are not supposed to be counted until AFTER polls

How is Zog getting this number? Exit polling? Guessing? Illegal peeking?

[prayin4rain]

3. I was wondering that myself. It doesn't seem right does it.

[WI_DEM]

10. through polling, by asking if they have already voted

[troublemaker]

11. If you call someone and ask who they're voting for and they say

"I already voted for X" then that datum is retained.

[fujiyama]

4. By those who have already voted

I think he means those who have voted in previous elections.

[troublemaker]

13. No, he is polling *people* and some people have already voted

[ewagner]

5. Early voting lead?

How motivated are the repubs in early voting? Do they have a GOTV Early program going? This sounds a little fishy to me.

[EagleEye]

7. Actually Repubs are generally further ahead in early voting.

[EagleEye]

6. Those who say they have already voted when he asks.

[Tesibria]

8. I agree -- "phone" exit polling

or - quite possibly, actual exit polling.

[Walt Starr]

12. WOW, historically the GOP outpolls the Dems on early and absentee

by like a two to one margin!