Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 291 Bush 247

[JoFerret]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

<<Wow! 41 new polls today. Zogby has released new polls conducted in the battleground states Oct. 13-18 and there is good news and bad news for each candidate. For Bush, the good news is that he is now leading in seven of the 16 battleground states (Arkansas, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia), his best showing ever in the Zogby poll. The bad news is that all of these leads are within the margin of error, so they are statistical ties. For Kerry, the good news is that his leads in Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington are all outside the margin of error, which ranges from 2% to 4%.>>

Seems to be a discrepancy on Florida between the chart and the text at time of posting.

[Moderator]

1. Not really LBN

I will move for now. All our readers love electoralvote.com, but this is really a blog, not a news source.

[DemocracyInaction]

2. I noticed that Iowa and Wisconsin have leads for Kerry which was

nice to see. We have to keep those two states or the party is over. There are so many polls dealing with Ohio and Florida that it's hard to tell which is true. I just saw one on the news this a.m. for Ohio from the U of Cincinatti that had a two-three point lead for Bush. Seems odd since he seems to not be showing up there anymore.

[truthisfreedom]

3. this is SUCH good news. Minnesota has been worrying me, and now Zogby

says it's more than 10 points in Kerry's favor... I KNEW IT! WOOHOO!

[fsbooks]

4. Predicted map: 311 Kerry to 227 *

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/

This predictive map was made using the following assumptions.

- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it
- The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
- If Nader is on the ballot, he will get 2%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)
- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)

--------------------------------
Just keep breathing and working. We all know all that matters are the "reported" counts after the election.

[tinanator]

5. flaky map shifts madly

but take a few things to the bank for Kerry. Nevada for one. It would take a HUGE miracle for Bush voters to prevail there, and not because of Yucca Mountain. Florida? fuggedaboutit. You think Jeb will allow that? Im all for the will of the voters, but I think we have seen what will happen there. New Mexico clearly is Kerry's, and without Florida Kerry is going to need Ohio or something like it to overcome the 27 electoral votes that are currently misapportioned by scientific polling that doesnt represent the crooked dealings guaranteed by Jeb's operation. I actually think Kerry stands to landslide, and all these polls are worth spit. But Florida? Id sooner buy swamp land.

[qwlauren35]

6. It's reports like this...

that help me sleep at night. It's starting to look like VICTORY - SWEET VICTORY!

THANKS!

[Charles19]

7. Coky Roberts the other day on NPR

was stating recent polls showed Bush had stopped the Kerry debate momentum and I couldn't disagree more. I felt there was not enough time yet that had gone by since the debate stomping Kerry put on Bush, these numbers I feel reflect that. The momentum I thought Kerry would gain from that is really showing up in those poll numbers.

[quaoar]

8. The map has limits

It should show Ohio as Kerry. It only shows Ohio as Bush because of the Fox poll and his rule of using the most recent poll. But you'll notice from his text that most other polls are giving Ohio to Kerry.

[Fed Up]

9. the first debate was hitting this bird off his perch with a slingshot.

I am so pleased.

I admit, 3 days before the first debate I plunked down on the sofa with kind of a grim look on my face. My kid wants Bush to lose real bad, and I said, "It doesn't look good, Kerry has no wind in his sails."

So I am so glad to see this. Kerry the closer. Please let it happen.

[Jack Rabbit]

10. Caution: Florida is being counted as Kerry

Once again, we cannot count on Kerry winning Florida even if he wins Florida. Gore couldn't.