DA Campaign Report: Kerry (255) Bush (212)

[JCMach1]

Here is what is going around currently inside party circles...

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Democrats Abroad Campaign Report
> No. 35, 18 October 2004
>
> E-DAY MINUS 15 AND COUNTING!!!
>
>
> PLEASE DO NOT PRESS "REPLY"!!. Please send comments, suggestions,
> questions and input to ...
>
> This is the 33rd daily report on the Campaign to push Bush-Cheney out
> and retake the Senate and House. Please feel free to pass this on to
> members of your committee and to other interested persons whether
> American or not.
>
> Today's topic: Monday Review of the Must Win States (See below.).
>
> Items:
>
> As we move into the final stretch run to this election, there will be
> lots of tidbit news stories that could shake one's confidence in the
> final result. Voter registration is over, the debates are done, the
> ad war is intense in many states, non-existent in others. Here's what
> to look for in the final two weeks:
>
> 1. Bush's polling numbers. According to MyDD and dailykos
> analysts, if Bush stays below 47% in the average of all legitimate
> polls during the final week, Kerry could have a landslide, between 47
> and 49, Kerry would be favored, 49-50, completely unpredicatable,
> above 50, Bush will be favored to win. Kerry's numbers are not as
> important as Bush's because 65-85% of undecideds go for the
> challenger. Despite The B/C04 campaign's best efforts to focus the
> electorate on Kerry, this election is a referendum on Bush, now that
> Kerry, through the debates, established his credibiltiy as an
> acceptable alternative to the president. Pay particular attention to
> Bush numbers in battleground state polls, using the 47-50 criteria
> above.
>
> 2. Stories on voter turnout. The media will be reporting
> extensively on voter turnout, early voting, party operations "on the
> ground" and "human interest" stories of people changing sides since
> 2000. There have been many articles about the overseas voter turnout;
> my debating partner here in Germany made the front page of the
> Philadelphia Inquirer, with quotes about how the overseas vote has the
> potential to turn the election for Bush. I find it interesting that
> RA Germany claims to have registered "more than a hundred", while we
> show that nearly 7,000 have been
> registered by online and on-the-ground registration by AOK, DA Germany and
> other groups. I am sure that all of you have similar number relationships
> between our erstwhile 527 opponents and us. For the military vote there
> are conflicting reports of polls showing 2-1 for Bush and deep
> dissatisfaction among the troops with Bush's handling of the war and the
> military.
>
> 3. There will be a lot of reporting of charges and counter
> charges of irregularities and illegalities in GOTV operations in the
> battleground states. If the election becomes close, a la Florida in
> 2000, both sides are predicting very complex and time-consuming legal
> battles, perhaps in several states at the same time.. A landslide in
> either direction will stop that.
>
> 4. "Small issue" manipulation. B/C04 tried, with some
> success, to turn Kerry's debate comment about Dick Cheney's daughter
> into an issue, just as they did with the "nuisance" comment Kerry made
> about terrorism. This type of campaigning has a long history in
> American presidential elections. Clinton taught us that responding
> vigorously to each of these is very important to keeping the damage to
> a minimum and refocusing the electorate on our issues. We tried it
> with Bush's gaffe on the draft and Ed Gillespie's letter to Rock the
> Vote, who tried to intimidate them into stopping their ads to younger
> voters on the prospects for a draft after the election if Bush wins.
> The Sinclair network showing of the anti-Kerry film
> falls into this category.
>
> 5. A couple of areas that often get lost are newspaper
> endorsements and prominent party members opting for the other side.
> Kerry has been getting some good news here with many newspapers that
> supported GWB in 2000 going for Kerry, or opting not to make a choice
> in 2004. Yesterday, the Ron Morton, son of Thruston B. Morton and
> nephew of Rogers Morton, both former chairs of the RNC, announced that
> he was supporting Kerry in the Louisville Courier-Journal. (Personal
> note: I still have my a copy of the Stars and Stripes from Nov. 1960
> with a picture of Thruston Morton hanging his head when Nixon lost.
> The Mortons ARE the old Republican Party.) The younger Morton is very
> prominent in Kentucky and national Republican circles and his
> defection reflects the old conservative
> uneasiness with Bush and the neo-conservatives around him. This could
> happen in reverse with conservative Democrats opting out of supporting
> "liberal" Kerry.
>
> 6. The rumor mill and "urban myths." A reader came across a
> Republican who claimed that a US Senator would have to resign because
> he was paying taxes in Washington, D.C. Totally fallacious; a 10
> minute check of local newspapers and candidate websites was all it
> took to debunk this kind of rumor mongering. Expect to see more of
> it.
>
> 7. Notice that I didn't even mention Iraq, the economy, health
> care, education, the environment or any other issues, including the
> Republican wedge issues, for which this election is being fought.
> Events here also play a role, but for the next 15 days, it's party
> operations, party operations, party operations...
>
> All of the above will be whirling around, stay alert, don't worry and
> Keep Writing Those Letters to Local Media!!!
>
> A absolute must read. I have recommended various articles over the
> past few weeks, but this one is required reading: Ron Suskind's
> article in yesterday's NYT Magazine called "Without a Doubt" about the
> faith-based presidency of GWB. It can be downloaded from
> www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17...17BUSH.htm. It is thought provoking and
> a little on the scary side. When I read it to my wife, she became
> quite aggitated and started on her "crazy Americans" rant.
>
> Tracking polls:
>
> We always list Bush first, then Kerry in these.
>
> DATE ZOGBY LV RASMUSSEN LV WA POST LV/ABC/WP RV
> 10 14-16 46-44 48.5-46.4 50-46 n/a
> 10 13-15 48-44 48.3-46.2 50-47 48-47
> 10 12-14 48-44 49.0-45.5 48-48 47-48
> 10 11-13 46-45 48.1-45.9 48-48 47-47
> 10 10-12 45.3-44.8 47.6-46.2 48-49
> 46-48
> 10 9-11 45.2-44.6 47.4-45.8 50-47 46-48
>
> National Polls. We have been following Zogby, Gallup, ABC, CBS and
> YouGov,
> today we will add Democracy Corps. DC is run by James Carvell and had a
> good record in 2000. First the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup:
>
>
> DATE MOE BUSH KERRY NADER OTHER UND.
> Gallup LV
> 10 14-16 4.0 52 44 1 - 3
> 10 9-10 48 49 1 - 2
> 10 1-3 49 49 1
> Gallup RV
> 10 14-16 4.0 49 46 1 1 3
> 10 9-10 48 48 1 1 2
> 10 1-3 49 47 1 2 1
> Some explanation is in order here: As in the past, Gallup's LV and RV
> polls are disagreeing with each other. Between 9-10 and 14-16
> October, Gallup changed the mix of Like Voters by counting 6% more
> Republicans than before and assuming that nearly 9 in 10 Republicans
> would vote, but only 8 in 10 Democrats would vote. The RV poll is
> still within the margin of error, so the race didn't change, Gallup
> did. Please stay calm.
>
> Democracy Corps LV (they only do LV)
>
> 10 14-16 3.1 47 50 1 - 2
> 10 10-11 48 48 - 1 2
> 10 3-5 48 49 1 - 2
> 9 26-28 49 46 1 1 3
> Clearly not much movement since the little bounce Kerry got from the
> first debate. I find it interesting that other 3rd party candidates
> are getting as much as Nader. There is a lot of talk that Nader can
> still affect this race, which is theoretically true, but I doubt that
> it will actually happen when people get into the voting booth.
>
> From last week's DCRs, two errors to report: I wrote that there was
> no governor's race in Indiana, of course there is, but the Republican
> is leading in a close race and that there was no Senate race in New
> York, which of course Chuck Schumer has by almost 40 points. Mea copa
> and thanks to the reader who pointed it out.
>
> Today's Topic: Monday Review of the Must Win States:
>
>
> STATE: Missouri EV: 11
>
> PRESIDENTIAL RACE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
> No new polling data.
> 10 5 Zogby 3.0 49.6 48.6
> 10 4 Rasmussen 5.0 51 45
> 10 3 Survey USA 3.8 49 47
> 9 14-17 Mason-Dixon 4.0 48 41 1
> 9 11-13 St. Louis Post 3.5 49 42 9
> Both Bush and Kerry have pulled most of their staff out of Missouri in
> the belief that Bush will take it. However, if the next polls show
> that the race is getting tighter, they will be back in it. BUSH: 11
> EVs.
>
> SENATE
>
> DATE POLLTER MOE Bond Farmer UND
> 10 15 Cook Report; despite the latest polling, Cook still gives Farmer
> an
> outside chance, calls it "likely Republican."
> n/a Research 2000 n/a 59 34
> 9 13-16 St. Louis Post 3.5 53 38 9
>
> We are not following any House races in Missouri at this point
>
> GOVERNOR
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Blunt McCaskill UND
> No new polling since last week.
> 9 13-16 St. Louis Post 3.5 46 45 9
>
> COMMENT: Bush still leads. It is still his to lose.
>
>
> STATE: Florida EV: 27
>
> PRESIDENTIAL RACE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
> 10 12-14 Inside Advnatage 5.0 44 48
> 10 8-14 Rasmussen 4.0 49 46
> 10 4-10 Wash. Post 3.5 47 47
> 10 5 Zogby 2.2 48.4 49.7
> 10 4-5 Mason-Dixon LV 4.0 48 44 2 6
> 10 2-5 ARG LV 4.0 45 47 2 6 10 1-5
> Quinnipiac Univ RV 3.7 46 42 10
> 9 24-27 Gallup (RV) 4.0 49 44 2 5
> 9 18-21 Quinnipiac Univ. 3.4 48 43 2 1
> The last three polls are 1-1-1, which continues the tie. Not yet
> factored in are the reports that Jeb Bush knew in advance that the
> Felon list to be used this year was flawed and wanted to deprive
> 45,000 more Floridians of their right to vote anyway. The list from
> 2000 is still being used; the NAACP is suing again, but nothing will
> happen until the election is over.
>
> SENATE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Martinez Castor UND
> 10 15 Cook Report, calls it a Toss Up
> n/a Strategic Vision (R) n/a 47 47
> mid Oct Insider Advantage 42 42
> 10 5-7 Global Strategy (D) 3.7 40 47 12 (LV)
> 10 4-6 Strategic Vision (R) 3.0 45 48 7 (LV)
> 10 1-5 Quinnipiac LV 3.7 48 47 5
> " RV 3.7 40 44 14
> 9 18-22 CNN 4.0 43 49 8
> 9 18-21 Quinnipian Univ. 3.4 42 43 13
> This race remains very close and the ads on both sides are getting
> pretty harsh. Castor has linked Martinez and Bush to the former
> professor that they tried to link to her. It hurt so much that Jeb
> Bush was even calling for her to let up.
>
> HOUSE - FL - 13
>
> DATE POLLSTER POP MOE Harris Schneider UND
> 10 17 dailykos calls it "lean Republican."
> No recent polling data, but Harris is apparantly doing well.
>
> No Governor's race in Florida
>
> COMMENT: It's still a tie.
>
>
> STATE: Ohio EV: 20
>
> PRESIDENTIAL RACE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
> 10 7-13 Rasmussen 4.0 49 47 1
> 10 8-11 Chicago Tribune 4.4 45 49
> 10 4-6 ARG LV 4.0 47 48 1 4
> 10 5 Zogby 2.3 48.9 49.0
> 10 3 Survey USA 3.6 48 49
> 9/22-10/1 Columbus Dispatch 2.0 51 44 5
> 9 25-28 CNN 4.0 49 47 3
> Kerry is now campaigning in traditionally Republican rural areas in
> Ohio, which is a very good sign.
>
> SENATE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Voinivich Fingerhut
> UND
>
> No new polling data. Fingerhut is not given any chance any more.
> 9/22-10/1 Columbus Dispatch 2.0 56 34 10
> 9 21-22 Fox News 3.5 58 30 11
>
> We are not following any House races in Ohio
>
> No Governor's race in Ohio
>
> COMMENT: This one remains very close, we'll have to put this one in
> the tie column, although even Republican sources are suggesting that
> Kerry has a better chance in Ohio than in Florida. Goes from Kerry 20
> to Tie 20.
>
> From last week: Three straight polls give Kerry a "within the margin
> of error" lead. Notice that Zogby's 2.3 MOE also shows the two
> separated by .1. Did I mention last week that turnout is everything in Ohio? (Don't
> look, I did.) KERRY 20, but not solid.
>
>
> STATE: Pennsylvania EV: 21
>
> PRESIDENTIAL RACE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
> 10 9-11 Quinnipiac 2.2 43 46 3
> 10 6-12 Rasmussen 4.0 46 47
> 10 4-6 ARG LV 4.0 46 48 1 5
> Without Nader 46 49
> 10 5 Zogby 2.6 46.4 51.9
> 10 1-4 West Chester LV 4.0 43 50 1 6
> 9 90-10 4 Franklin & Marshall 4.0 41 48 3 8
> 9 27-28 Mason-Dixon 4.0 44 45 2 9
> 9 25-28 CNN 4.0 45 49 3 5
> Kerry has solidified his lead through several polls. Bush's numbers
> stay
> in
> low to mid 40s.
>
> SENATE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Specter Hoeffel Other UND
> 10 15 Cook Report calls it "likely Republican"
> n/a Keystone Poll n/a 44 35
> 10 1-4 West Chester 4.0 49 30 20
> 9 30-10 4 Franklin&Marshall 4.0 44 35 7 14
> (LV)
> 46 32 6 16
> 9 22-26 Quinnipiac Univ. 2.9 52 33 13
> (There are third party candidates in the race). Specter is being
> haunted by the Constitution Party candidate who is taking away right
> wing voters. A senator seeking his fourth term with numbers in the low
> to mid 40% is in trouble. Hoeffel is still not known by half the
> voters in Pennsylvania. It's a long shot, but look what happened to
> Jim Bunning in Kentucky.
>
> From last week: Most observers have been calling this race over, but,
> with Kerry's lead now solidifying, Hoeffel's numbers are not without
> hope. 14-20% undecided this late in the race tells me that something
> is going on. Let's wait for more data before declaring Specter the
> winner.
>
>
> HOUSE PA - 6
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Gerlach Murphy UND
> 10 17 dailykos says "lean Republican"
> No recent polling data in PA - 6, but Gerlach believed to be ahead.
>
> HOUSE PA - 8
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Fitzpatrick Schrader
> UND
> 10 17 dailykos says "Toss up"
> No recent polling data in PA - 8, but Schrader is given a good chance
> here.
>
> HOUSE PA - 13
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Brown Schwartz UND
> 10 17 dailykos says "favored Democratic"
> No more recent polling. Schwartz is believed to be safe.
> 9 16-21 Franklin & Marshall 4.9 32 45 23
>
> HOUSE PA - 15
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Dent Driscoll Other UND
> 10 17 dailykos says "lean Republican"
> 9 27 10 3 Muhlenberg College 4.7 52 20 2 26
> 26% undecided when the leader has a 32 point lead. ???
>
> HOUSE PA - 17
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Paterno Holden UND
> 10 17 dailykos says "favored Democratic"
> No recent polling data in PA -17, but Holden is expected to win.
>
> There is no governor's race in Pennsylvania
>
> COMMENT: Nader was taken off the ballot in Pennsylvania, which
> prompted
> the
> Republicans to pull up stakes and eliminate ads in easter 2/3 of state.
> The reverse of Missouri. KERRY: 21 EVs
>
>
> STATE: Michigan EV: 17
>
> PRESIDENTIAL RACE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
> 10 11-13 Research 2000 4.0 43 48 2 4
> 10 6-12 Rasmussen 5.0 46 49 5
> 10 6 Survey USA 3.9 42 52
> 10 5 Zogby 2.8 44.5 54.2
> 9 22-28 Detroit Free Press 3.5 46 48 6
> 9 20-24 Inside Michigan 4.1 43 45 11
> 9 21-22 Fox News 3.5 44 46 9
> It is getting clear that Kerry will win Michigan.
>
> SENATE
> There is no Senate race in Michigan
>
> HOUSE
> We are not following any House races in Michigan
>
> GOVERNOR
> There is no governor's race in Michigan
>
> COMMENT: Michigan is in Kerry's column now: 17 EVs
>
>
> BOTTOM LINE: As of 11 October, Bush still leads in Missouri, Ohio and
> Florida are tied and Kerry holds good leads in Pennsylvania and
> Michigan. The count: Bush 11, Kerry 38, Tied 47.
>
> From last week:
> As of 11 October, Bush leads in Missouri, but not by much, Florida is
> a
> tie
> but Kerry is gaining, Ohio moves in Kerry column, but not by much,
> Pennsylvania and Michigan are stronger for Kerry than last week. Must Win
> State count: Kerry 58, Bush 11, Tied 27. This change reflects how well
> Kerry did in the first debate, but does not include much from the VP
> debate
> or anything from the second Pres. debate.
>
> For comparison from last week:
> As of 4 October: Bush wins Missouri, Ohio and Florida; Kerry wins
> Pennsylvania and Michigan. Electoral Votes from these states: Bush
> 58, Kerry 38. We will update our master chart every day until Election
> Day with the new data for each category of state.
>
> CATEGORY DATE STATES TOT EV BUSH KERRY TIED
> Must Win 18 Oct 5 96 (5) 11 (1) 38 (2) 47 (2)
> Compensation 12 Oct 8 55 (8) 14 (2) 26 (4) 15 (2)
> Republican Cherries 13 Oct 5 44 (5) 44 (5)
> Democratic Plums 13 Oct 5 54 (5) 45 (4) 9 (1)
> Red States 14 Oct 18 142 (18) 142 (18)
> Blue States 15 Oct 10 147 (10) 147 (10)
>
> Total 51 538 (51) 212 (25) 255 (21)
> 71 (5)

[JCMach1]

1. morning kick

:kick: