My Gut Feeling: Kerry wins easily no matter what current polls say.

[Quixote1818]

My gut feeling is that Kerry will win and he will win by two to three points. I think he will win Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and everything that Gore won in 2000. I am simply not worried about the polls because the polls said the same stuff and even worse in 2000 just before the election. No, the DWI thing did not throw off the polls because it broke on Nov. 2nd and the polls that came out after that still had Bush beating Gore by a margin of two to ten points. Well, they were wrong! The polls were wrong in Iowa when they had Dean neck and neck with Kerry and Kerry won by some huge number. I think this tidal wave of Newspaper endorsements for Kerry and their absolute thrashing of Bush is a real reflection of peoples views of Bush. Bush's approval rating is below 50% and no candidate has ever won with an approval rating below 50%. Voter registration for Democrats is way ahead of Republicans and the huge turnout during the Democratic primary's shows the Democrats are pumped BIG TIME to get rid of Bush no matter how luke warm they are to Kerry. Undecideds are projected to move Kerry's direction in the last few days by a margin around 60% to 40%. Also, and extremely important is the fact that likely voter polls don't take into account the fact that a huge number of those not listed as a likely voter do show up. Kerry is leading in almost every poll of just registered voters yet trails in the likely voter polls. Gore had the same problem. Baring something unforeseen I think Kerry will win come November 2nd!

So what do you think?

[ElectroPrincess]

1. My dream is that

Kerry takes Virginia. It would be the first time in 40 years that a Democratic Presidential Candidate was selected from here.

Gosh, it's just a dream, not necessarily attainable. <eg>

[The Great Escape]

37. If Not This Year...Very Soon...

I spend probably as much time in Virginia as I do West Virginia. Even in Southwest Virginia...Wythe, Smyth, Grayson and Pulaski Counties, where I spend alot of time. I see Dems more active than I have ever seen them. I can't remember the last time Wythe went Dem in a pres election. This year, I have real hope.

[onehandle]

2. Yep. Zogby says it's his to lose.

Kerry is playing a damn good game.

In addition, I see a chance to take The Senate and possibly the House.

Why? Who in their right mind who is going out of the way to vote for Kerry, and also hit Republicans on the rest of the ballot?

My gut says Kerry and then some.

[Pushed To The Left]

25. That would be a dream come true..

Democratic President, Democratic House and Senate, Progressive Supreme Court Justices..I'd have to turn on some right-wing talk-radio just to hear them literally cry on the air!

[IIgnoreNobody]

3. I think you're right.

What ever happened to all the stories about how the Democrats were all united and angry at Bush? Did we suppposedly become un-united somehow? No. Did something happen to make us less passionate? No. Did Kerry turn out to not be up to the task? No. Are we gonna forget what happened in 2000? No.


Will John Kerry be inaugurated on January 20? Yes.

[Warpy]

4. They're trying to suppress the vote now

to avoid being utterly humiliated at the polls. I really don't think it's going to work.

Too many people out here in workaday land are furious at Bush. Too many people want him and his gang of thieves and religious lunatics GONE.

The only question that remains is whether or not Kerry's coattails are big enough to hand us Congress.

[BillZBubb]

5. I hope you are right.

One thing that worries me though. Gore was the de facto incumbent -- running as a continuation of Clinton's administration. So, polls showing Gore behind under-counted support for the incumbent party.

This time Bush* may or may not have a slim lead. But, are the polls under-counting support for the incumbent? Probably not, but it worries me.

[sandnsea]

6. Trust what you see

Not what the newsmodels say. They lie, we know that.

[DODI]

7. I too think Kerry will win on the 2nd -- I think the ground has shifted so

much relative to polling that it is impossible to get an accurate reading with them. I think the young people and Jon Stewart are key to this victory. People are mad. I always love seeing the posts here regarding converted repugs. I think that is just a very small sampling of what is going on out there. The open letters of protest to * from all walks of life - diplomats, engineers, scientists, MBA profs. all point to a huge undercurrent of support for Kerry or at least ABB. I have faith in this country and its people -- Kerry will win.

[dave502d]

8. That the way i see it..

[glitch]

9. It's not the votes I am worried about - it's the count.

But I agree - the votes will give him a landslide if they're all counted.

[Crachet2004]

10. Its in the bag. Everything you said is true...and there is gonna be...

A record turnout. They are NOT turning out because Bush is doing such a good job-far from it.

I laughed my ass off when I read the CNN/Gallup poll that has Bush up eight points! Still trying to create that ole' bandwagon effect, I guess, just like they did in 2000.

Pathetic, I tell you, just pathetic.

I for one, think this is going to be more like when Reagan won, and all the bigtime liberal Senators went down, like Frank Church.

In other words, we will at least take the Senate, with several to spare, and it may be surprising who, from the other side goes DOWN!

[wrate]

11. I think your gut feeling has a lot of logic in it :)

[TexasSissy]

12. I hope you're right (but I think Jeb will make sure that * wins FL). But

I think Kerry just might win Ohio, and if so, I think he wins the election.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

13. I feel that a Kerry blowout is possible. Look at 1980!

Kerry 54%
Bush 44%
Others 2%

[IIgnoreNobody]

20. I second those numbers

thats my prediction. And Badnarik could out-poll Nader.

[dmkinsey]

14. I managed our phone bank today

We called "underperforming" precincts. Some ususally trend R, some rural, and one Kalamazoo city precinct

Totals for the day:
Kerry 131
undecided 22
bush 72

[Quixote1818]

17. Wow! Great news!

[seabeyond]

15. i feel the same

and something else i am realizing. i didnt realize gore was so down at this time, last election, because i didnt feel it then. even though the polls may have showed he was down, i felt he wasnt. and sure enough he should have won last time. beleive the same this time. only more so on kerry side. feel there is more enthusiasm for kerry, far enough away from clinton to do that bothered so many, and for who kerry is.

[sendero]

16. I agree totally...

... I'm not worried at all. The only thing that could happen would be Kerry making some huge mistake, and that is not going to happen.

Not only do I think Kerry will win, I think he will win with a large enough margin that the BBV tamperers will not be able to steal the election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. my gut feeling is i don't know...

I knew in 72, 76, 80,84,88,92, and 96 who would win at this time...

In 00 and now I don't have a clue...

[Awsi Dooger]

21. Same here, almost no clue

I just wish it were like 2000, no incumbency advantage to the other side in the final weeks. We're going to be treated to some creative abuse of power.

I'm probably somewhat older because I remember '68 as a kid and had no idea. '76 was obviously close but I always thought it would be Carter, post-Watergate. In '80 I was first year college in California and there was such a pro-Reagan hint in the air I knew the polls were off. Even Johnny Carson noticed that. He polled the audience every night and there would be massive applause for Reagan and near zero for Carter. Granted it was California but the enthusiasm and intensity on one side only was clear.

Last time and now we have issues and economic realities that should avalanche toward Democrats, but white males are the roadblock. I talk to so many of every age, background, region, marital status and economic standing who won't even consider a Democrat. It gives the GOP such a built-in advantage and margin for error because the similar block of white women are much more thoughtful and flexible, i.e. intelligent. Not self-concerned only.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I Saw An Alarming Statistic...

Only one in five white American males identifies himself as a Democrat....

The Democrat's future is primarily with progressives and people of color unless the Republicans don't co opt them...

[Cats Against Frist]

28. Seriously? Wow.

Well, both my Dad and Brother think they're "Republicans" even though they're both voting Kerry, and my Dad hasn't voted for a Republican for president since the re-election of Reagan. My father has always been under some crazy delusion -- he was an Illinois coal miner -- that if he's registered as a Republican, he'd have a better chance of getting jobs. I don't know if this is true, nor do I know if voter registrations are public record -- but I think that's crazy.

It's funny though, how insulated you get from "the other." I have an extended family of "butternut" dems, who all lean GOP thanks to mass propaganda and hate radio jingo -- but those are really the ONLY people with whom I ever come into contact that are even conservative, let alone any of them who might be registered as Republicans.

I spent a good six years in college -- received journalism and political science degrees, and still met few right-wingers. Then, I lived in Sweden, then Seattle, and now everyone I know is an aspiring writer, so I know some anarchists, libertarians, progressives and liberals, but fucking a, no Republicans. Some of my students might be Republicans, though, and I just don't know it. The cool thing is, at least, almost all of them are registered to vote, and many of them are sporting Kerry buttons and T-shirts.

In my world (for the last 10 years, anyway), everyone's liberal -- or they've been so crazy that they don't have any political affiliation -- even the white males -- and it's beautiful.

One in five, though. That's ultra-sad. No wonder most white guys seem like mega chumps to me.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. I'm Too Tired Now To Link It

but Gallup actually had Ford beating Carter 50-48...

I was eighteen at the time but Carter's victory felt like a foregone conclusion...

[Awsi Dooger]

32. I remember that poll and being shocked by it

Every previous indication had Carter ahead. I remember staying up until 1 or 2 AM Eastern time before it was called for Carter.

[onecent]

19. After Kerry wins and during the next 4 years is there a way we can

stop the lying polsters and the media...??

They've played a DIRTY game and unnecessarily have put our troops at risk...and have obviously influenced many "the wrong way"

[Guaranteed]

23. For me, it comes down to this:

We win Florida, we win.

Simple as that. Not as EASY as that, but just that simple.

[clevergirl]

26. My gut agrees with yours...

today, anyhow.

[Name removed]

27. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Cats Against Frist]

29. How clever, little freeper.

Don't you have to kill somebody or wait for the rapture or something?

[tishaLA]

31. You're such a good soldier

rat-a-tat-tat

[txindy]

33. Huh

[ever_green]

30. He should definitely win

I think he has the majority of the support, he'll win. The media doesn't help, Bush's lies don't help, but we will overcome all that.

[endnote]

34. I don't think we should trust "gut" feelings. Enough of that in the WH!

[shivaji]

35. Kerry wins PA,OH, FL, IA, WI, NV, NM, NH, 316 Kerry, 222 Bush

You heard it from me 1st.

[DarthDem]

42. Deal!

Sounds good to me. :D And fairly plausible, too.

[shivaji]

36. Dozen reasons why Kerry wins big in 2004

African-Americans
Muslims
Jews
Union members incl Teachers
Women for Choice in abortions
Scared Seniors
Trial Lawyers
Felons
Recent immigrants
Motor voters
Gays
Lesbians

All of the above voting blocks are solidly in our favor.

[blue sky at night]

39. Praise God for those folks who have suffered so much.......

i LOVE every one of those groups. I am white guy and I am a Democrat. I am proud to be a freaking dem, and to hell with all of the Neocon Idiots we have had to endure over these last 10 years, dogging Clinton and now all the garbage * has heaped upon us!!! We are taking back OUR country. I do agree, the gut tells me Kerry is going to win big, but I am not stopping working until we Hear those words, our Next President: John Kerry. :-) :-) :-)

[PurityOfEssence]

38. All these endorsements will fan the flames of the "liberal media" screed

Georgia will be thoroughly stolen, as in '02, Ohio will have major voting fraud scandals, Florida will have sporadic tension--if not violence--on election day and there will be very shrill accusations all around. It seems that there's simply no way Bush can muster a plurality, due to the fact that the myth of there being no difference between has been thoroughly dispelled, but never underestimate the idiocy of the masses.

The essential appeal of the Republicans is that they represent rectitude, and the Democrats are a bunch of dirtbag layabouts, perverts and assorted dross. Never underestimate the desire of the confused to ally themselves with the "good people", regardless of their actual handling at their hands.

We shall see.

There will be anger aplenty, regardless.

[Chichiri]

40. "Kerry will win and he will win by two to three points" -- I disagree

I think that Kerry will win by seven points. Seven points minimum.

[Oak2004]

41. If you know how to use polls, you wouldn't say that

You'd say "Kerry is going to win, and the polls right now all point to this".

You can't take polls simply at face value. Taken that way they make little sense. If there's anything here to bitch about, its that the media is presenting the polls to the public at face value, without explaining any of what John Q. Public needs to know in order to understand what they're saying.

Though, I have to say, CNN takes it to a whole new low. Since when do standards of journalism require that you get a permission slip from the Republican party before you can publish your poll results?