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I went to Time Magazine's battleground states link and did a little math. I am trying to be objective. You'll notice that there are differing poll numbers on some of the states. The texts at the bottom right are very informative. So using the numbers from the first poll mentioned for each state here is what I come up with:
I have Kerry winning WA,OR,MN,WI,MI,OH,PA,and 3 electoral votes from ME. I have Bush winning CO,NV,AZ,IA,MO,AR,WV and 1 electoral vote from ME.
I can't call NM or FL. Now for the good news/bad news.
Time has Kerry with 168 electoral votes locked up. My total in the battlegrounds comes to 99 for a total of 267 (3 short). Time gives Bush 181 locked plus my total of 54 for 239. If Bush wins Florida he still needs 4 more. So this race could actually come down to New Mexico and its 5 electoral votes. The other smoking gun is if Colorado's electoral change passes it is put into play IMMEDIATELY. I'd try to get into the totals if that happens but I'd just get a headache.
I welcome all feedback on my numbers. Here's the link to Time's battleground states site:
www.time.com/time/election2004/battleground
Also, I am pleased to be going to Wisconsin on Oct 23 to canvass for Kerry! I will be in either Kenosha or Racine. I live in Illinois and we're solid Kerry country so I can leave with no worries.
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