10/16 Time Poll: Presidential Race Deadlocked

[unfrigginreal]

Saturday, Oct. 16, 2004
Kerry Seemed More Presidential During Debates, But Bush Still Viewed as Stronger Commander-in-Chief

The race for the White House remains deadlocked, 48% for George W. Bush and 46% for John Kerry, among likely voters, according to a TIME Poll taken Oct. 14-15, 2004.

Almost 1 in 3 voters (30%) said the debates made them more likely to vote for Kerry, compared to only 17% more likely to vote for Bush.

Registered voters gave Kerry the overall debate win 57% - 27% over Bush. Bush lost the final debate Wednesday by a 9 point margin, 37% - 28%. (Bush lost the first debate by 36 points, 59% - 23%.)

Bush's job approval has continued to slip since the first debate and now stands at 49% approve - 49% disapprove. This marks second week in a row that Bush has dipped under 50% approval rating in the TIME magazine poll.

http://www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,725047,00.html


#

Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone October 14-15, 2004 among a random sample of 1131 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 1000 reported registered voters and 865 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is approximately +/-3 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points.

# Likely voters reported party identifications are: 36% Democrat, 35% Republican, 21% Independents.
# Registered voters party affiliations are: 37% Democrat, 32% Republican, 23% Independent.

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In the article Kerry leads Bush on More Presidential 49-44 and More Believable 48-44

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. It's more like Kerry 48% and Bush 46%!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Think This Poll Is Closer To Reality

but their likely voter model doesn't include enough Dems...


They have it:

36% Dem


35% Rep...


I believe our edge will be as great or greater as it was in 00 which I believe was four percent...

[59millionmorons]

read my lips

The 48-46 did NOT include leaners in which Kerry is leading by 10. Add the leaners and Kerry is up 2-3.

[montana500]

2. yyyesssss!!!!!! Great news!!!

Thx!

[Mz Pip]

3. Bush loses 3 debates

screws up the country and 48% of the people want him back in the White House.

This is just nuts.

MzPip
:dem:

[montana500]

5. mzpip - did you think this would be a blowout?

why?

[Mz Pip]

15. Not a blowout

but certainly not this close. I figured Bush would get his base but 48%? No way.

This attitude that is reflected in the polls of "I think the country is going in the wrong direction, Iraq sucks and the economy is a mess but I'm voting for the Boy King anyway," shows such a disconnect.

I know I live in a bubble that is the San Francisco Bay Area where my housecat could beat Bush. It's like being on another planet, I think.

MzPip
:dem:

[rndmprsn]

6. 48% is going to be shrubs ceiling...

48% is kerry's floor...time will tell.

[BootinUp]

7. Its the incumbent, and me big warrior thing

48% will not return him to the whitehouse. He's going to need more than that. Cheer up. :)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Amazing...

But there have been letters to the editor acknowledging that Bush is a dim bulb but the writers are voting for him anyway...


In every decision whether it's hiring an accountant or laywer, or going to the doctor most folks will invariably choose the smart guy... Only when choosing a pres do folks throw that criterion out the window....

[BootinUp]

4. Holy Shiite!

He's goin down folks, there will much celebration. :)

[ksoze]

8. Stronger Commander-in-Chief????

How could a CiC do worse? Who are these voters?

Maybe "stronger" is the wrong word to use in these polls. Somehow, 'sronger" has replaced smarter for many voters who assume that blind. blunt force will prevail. I can maybe buy voters thinking the debate-runner-up is a man's man and all that stuff, but has this guy made ONE single good foreign move that makes him a memorable CiC?

[Davis_X_Machina]

16. Stronger means "more likely to kill Moslems...

...., epecially on my TV, so I can go "Hoo-Ah! USA! USA!" when they roll the gun camera video on CNN".

So Bush wins that one...

[Kierkegaard]

10. And this is TIME.

That means even worse things are afoot for the temporary pretzeldent...

[jefferson_dem]

11. A lowly 49% approval and Kerry more likable. Buy bye Chimp-boy!

[private_ryan]

13. 36% Democrat, 35% Republican

sampled less Dems, less indies and more repukes. We're ahead

[mvd]

14. Good news!

Wish it was better, but I'll take it after some recent polls. :bounce:

[saracat]

17. Unbelievable! They find Kerry superior on most issues, including

likability( who they would have a beer with!) and yet they would still vote for Bush! Why? I just don't get it!

[PROGRESSIVE1]

18. Terror, Terror, Fear, Fear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That's why! They have been made afraid by little Hitler himself (Bush)!

[saracat]

19. Or Goebbels Propaganda machine! Oh ! Yes.

the freepers will probably grab this post as evidence of how bad we are. They loathe Hitler references to Bush!

[PROGRESSIVE1]

20. Too bad. FReepers have no problem calling us "traitors" and....

accusing John Kerry of being sympathetic to the Terrorists!

"Not so" Free Republic can F*%# itself!

:mad:

[The Wielding Truth]

21. Any one visit free republic? Do you see their viewpoint?

[unfrigginreal]

22. Time Poll details, for what they're worth. Somehow we have more likely

voters than registered voters. Not sure how that works out.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/Time-Trended_Data-2004-10-.pdf

[Philostopher]

23. People who didn't vote in 2000

which is why it was so close, maybe? Traditionally Dem voters who realized failing to vote in 2000 was a mistake and intend, at this point, to vote this year, I mean. I know at least one who didn't vote in 2000 because they weren't thrilled with Al Gore; they know this year thrill ain't all it's about, so they'll vote this year when they didn't in 2K.