Doesn't seem like things are trending our way in the final weeks

[Doosh]

I don't mean to be a pessimist, but Kerry just can't break ahead, most polls I've seen have it a dead heat or Bush ahead by 1-2, a few 3-4. And it's been like that for weeks. The latest Zogby, Newsweek, and Rasmussen figures are not in our favor, and there isn't much time left.

I look at the electoral map, seems like Kerry is not running as well as Gore, he's neglected NJ, I don't think it will come back to haunt him but Bush should not be this close. Can we count on Iowa and Minnesota not to flip to Bush this time, because if either of them did it would be devastating. What's going on in Wisconsin? I know New Hampshire is the most conservative north east state, but it should've solidified to Kerry by now by 4-6pts, it hasn't. Even Maine is closer than it should be. What's our chances in Ohio and W. Virginia? I really think we should've made a push in Virginia, last poll put Kerry down only 3.

[progressivebydesign]

1. Yeah? and Bush was ahead by up to 12 points same time last election.

Poll are like assholes... (fill in the blanks)... just keep working!

[aquart]

2. Mutiny. Flu shots. Down Dow. Nothing is trending Bush's way. Nothing.

[Doosh]

4. I hope we have a good October Surprise ready

because you know Rove is ready to hit us with MULTIPLE October Surprises, that's how he works, and judging by these polls he'll hit us pretty soon. Rove only tries to strike decisively when he's ahead, I hope we're prepared to counter him.

[Blue_Roses]

3. Don't forget about cell phone users

who are not being polled. I for one am a cell phone user only and I haven't been polled and definitely will be voting Kerry.

[DaveinMD]

7. AP

and the Democracy Corp have Kerry in the lead as does ARG. The Post/ABC News poll has the race tied. Kerry is in very good shape.

[TexasSissy]

5. I share your concerns. It's tough to beat a war-time incumbent. The

incumbent has all the advantages (incl. using the air waves for free campaigning). And the military rallies behind the commander in chief. It's tough.

But Kerry has done extremely well in such a situation, and he may, in fact, end up winning. It's rare for a war-time incumbent to be tied with a challenger.

But I would've thought after winning all three debates (or at the least winning two and tieing on one) that Kerry would've won over those undecideds. Bush supporters, like Kerry supporters, have their heels dug in and will not budge.

I don't get it. I just don't get it. And I'm worried (but I'm a worrier by nature). But then, Bush supporters should be worried even more. We started out not knowing if we could win. Bush supporters started out assuming that Bush would win in a landslide. At least we have a 50-50 chance.

[Wickerman]

6. Polls aren't worth the bandwidth they are wasting. eom

[rndmprsn]

8. Corp Polls suck

collusion of big bizz $ and govt power is one definition of facism.

just like corp rock, corp polls suck...always will...anyhow, when i see these polls that are weighted in repug favor i always add 5-6 points for kerry.

no on is polling the millions and millions who only have mobile phone..me included and also, i think our nov surprise will be massive turnout.

thats said...its gonna be close, and no one said it was going to be easy...just keep your eyes on the prize and get out there and help to make a difference every day till nov 2nd...and probably after that too.

[sandnsea]

9. The polls make no sense

Think about it. As I just posted, Kerry leads with youth, boomers, seniors, women and minorities; yet Bush is ahead? That just doesn't make any sort of sense at all, does it?

Besides, don't worry about the polls, Kerry runs under the radar campaigns and always has. It's about US, working our asses off until the polls close.

[iamjoy]

10. No Retreat, No Surrender

I don't like the way things are trending either, but we need to keep fighting until the fat lady sings.

[montana500]

11. Kerry leading BG states by 10%

pull your head out of your ass, mate! Things are looking good!

[niceypoo]

12. Kerry by landslide

If democrats come out enmasse to vote, Kerry wins by landslide. Thats what will happen

[mikehiggins]

13. Kerry just has to win enough electoral votes

What I would love to see is a situation where BUSH wins the popular vote and Kerry the electoral. I don't see that happening, though. I think Kerry will win the popular vote going away, and the electoral vote by a significant margin.

Even after all that has happened, I cannot beleive the American public is dumb enough to accept four more years of this crap.

In your face, GOPukes!

[Unstuck In Time]

14. Dead heat at this point... bad news for the INCUMBENT...

... particularly when the challenger is still enjoying momentum from three incredibly strong debate performances.

No time to get complacent, I agree. But we ought to be looking and sounding like a party on the way to a win.

[Lefty48197]

15. Don't be surprised if the pollsters have Bush ahead

the night before we fire him. Don't let them dampen your enthusiasm one bit. They want to demoralize us. That's the best they've got. We have hope for a better future. We have far more at stake.

[rndmprsn]

17. agreed

corp polls dont seek the truth...their methodology proves that, they want to demoralize us and dampen down turnout as much as possible.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

18. I agree! I am only concerned about the Zogby poll which has Bushler....

ahead two days now.

If we work hard and get all of those first time voters then we could see Kerry get 52% to Bush's 46% with 2% to the inds.

[NYC Liberal]

21. Yes,

and it's going to make our victory on Nov. 2nd even greater!

[RevolutionStartsNow]

16. It's about the Battleground States, not the National Polls

I don't know why they even bother with national polls at this point. It's going to be about OH, PA, FL, WI, etc.

As a Dean supporter, I am gun shy about assuming that tons of young new voters with cell phones will suddenly show up and vote, but I do think the polls are slightly off.

Kerry is doing very well in these states and GOTV efforts are going to make a difference. We cannot however discount the powerful well-funded Republican GOTV machine. Everyone on this Board should be helping with GOTV.

[jacksonian]

23. new voters with cell phones are a real wildcard here

I don't think Dean's lack of success in the Iowa caucus is any comment on that. The Iowa caucus is not a regular election like this, people caucus and discuss their votes - it is not the sort of participation I would expect from these voters. And after Iowa, Dean had no momentum and Kerry was clearly ahead, I don't think these voters were engaged in the primaries.

A general election may be a different matter, we shall see.

[truthpusher]

19. Polling by American Media is Bullshit...Always...Either Way...

[bowens43]

20. A dead heat for the incumbent is a certain loss.

John Kerry WILL be the next President of the United States of America.

[budkin]

22. Quit worrying and stay positive!!!

Work your ass off, do whatever you can to get out the vote. We're going to win this thing! No way in hell Bush gets reelected!

[Toronto Ron]

24. Any state with a poll that shows has b*sh with < 49%...

is a state whose Electoral College votes will go to John Kerry. That's because the great majority (two-thirds or more) of undecideds will vote against the incumbent.

[lancdem]

25. The Newsweek poll oversampled Repukes

so Kerry is actually ahead by several points if you reweight it properly. Even more important, he leads independents by 11 points in that poll. Gore lost indys by 3 points in 2000.

Electorally, Kerry is doing much better than he was a couple weeks ago. EVs are about even now, and the only blue states he has to defend are Iowa, Wisconsin and New Mexico, while Bush has to defend Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Arkansas and perhaps Colorado. Bush has written off Pennsylvania, allowing Kerry to use gis resources elsewhere.

[caledesi]

26. 3 Words: Newly Registered Voters nt

[wabeewoman]

27. Is anyone going to be doing exit polling

this year? Have you heard? I know they didn't in 2002. I think exit polls are very important but haven't heard if anyone plans on doing them. Of course, they can probably skew them too.