No change in Zogby this morning

[unfrigginreal]

Bush Keeps Four-Point Lead on Kerry-Reuters Poll
Sat Oct 16, 2004 07:03 AM ET

y John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush's lead over Democratic Sen. John Kerry held steady at four points for the second consecutive day, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Saturday.

Bush led Kerry 48-44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll of the race for the White House, virtually unchanged from the previous day's narrow margin between the president and the Massachusetts senator.

Bush was aided by strong support from his fellow Republicans, 92 percent, while Kerry attracts just 81 percent of Democrats.

"Bush's strength is that he has consolidated his constituency. Kerry's weakness is that he has not consolidated his constituency," pollster John Zogby said. "Meanwhile, the undecideds are not budging."

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6519076

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I like the line about undecideds. That should bode well for Kerry.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

1. Your link's not working.

[unfrigginreal]

2. Sorry - Fixed I think

[ClintonTyree]

3. Same Bullshit.............

different day.

[Wapsie B]

4. Let me get this straight.

We have a sitting President who sucked dog feces on 3 debates, has a popularity rating below 50% and re-elect #'s lower than that, but he still LEADS Kerry? Something's rotten in pollville.

[Cats Against Frist]

5. I'm not joking -- this poll can be manipulated

if it is the interactive survey. Which would explain the internal where 19 percent of Democrats are not voting Kerry. This number, as Zogby pointed out, is rather high. I just went over the polls, and even when Kerry was polling 8-10 pts. below Smirky, he would record numbers of 86-87 percenet.

Now, if I were a freepscum, and I wanted to manipulate it, and make it look the worst for John Kerry, I'd register as a female Democrat, and then vote for Bush, no?

Someone on here said that Rove said, "watch Zogby," before the results were even announced. Most other polls have predicted a tie, or Kerry slightly ahead.

I'm not saying for SURE, but I wouldn't put ANYTHING past the GOP.

[saracat]

6. This isn't the online poll.

[Cats Against Frist]

12. uhhhh...crappola

Sorry, someone told me that it was, yesterday. :)

[sandnsea]

7. The constituency is consolidated

I don't know who Zogby is talking too, I'm making the calls like everybody else. I'm hearing "straight Dem ticket" over and over again. Anybody else?

[Crazy8s]

10. Unfortunately, no

not in my corner of Florida (Brooksville/Bushnell area). It has been looking very Shrubby around here. Lots of * stickers, and many people I and my husband work with supporting him, despite everything. The stuff the repubs have been throwing has stuck--I've been told that Kerry isn't trustworthy, he doesn't look like he can do the job, etc. Then you have the racist redneck response--* is doing a good job killing those ragheads: "He put on his boots and kicked Arab ass" to quote my husband's business partner. There ARE Kerry folk where I work--curiously, the lower paid CNAs are the majority--and we talk our guys up among ourselves, but the bias around here is disheartening.

This is so distressing to me. I work at a nursing home. My administration staff (of which I am a member--Activities Director) is gung-ho *, as are some in Therapy. What is really disturbing is the influencing of voting residents by some of these folks. I've even had a resident I didn't consider competent registered by someone in the front office! He wasn't even sure of the cadidates (Keery and that other guy I'm voting for). He actually told the women who brought the ballots that he wanted to vote for Bush and Keery! Another resident voted for Bush because he received a birthday note from the White House! When residents are not officially incompetent and express a desire to vote, they are fair game to outside influences (as are we all). Unfortunately, they don't always have an informed view of the candidates or the world situation. Many don't read newspapers and the only news they see is FOX.

[sandnsea]

13. Note, constituency

Which means core voters, not Republican voters which is what you're describing. The Dem voters, and many independents, are voting straight Dem tickets; I'm hearing it more and more in my phone calls. Which is totally different than what Republicans may be doing.

It's sad about the nursing home. My daughter is working at a retirement home that is known to lean Republican, so she is on the lookout to try to make sure the voting there is fair. The other one has our Dem club leader in it, so that's already handled. But they stop at nothing, it's true.

[snippy]

14. Is it democrats or republicans expressing support for Bush?

If it is democrats, that is very bad news. But if it is republicans, that is nothing to worry about.

[incapsulated]

8. Please, I don't want to hear that Zogby is shit now....

After reading about how he was the ONLY pollster that was credible, reliable, worthy of any attention for months on end.

It doesn't work that way.

You should be like me and ignore the polls until the week before election day. All I knew was it was going to be tight, and that has stayed the consistent truth throughout this campaign.

[Teaser]

15. Learn about moving averages please....

the fact that Bush didn't Budge mean his numbers were due to a one day oversample of Republicans. when that number rolls off the moving average, it will be tied again.

How many times do I have to tell you people this?

[incapsulated]

17. What are you telling me for?

Was I bitching about this poll? I don't even take them that seriously. My only point is that those who do, shouldn't dismiss Zogby now, just because the numbers have moved a bit. For whatever reason.

"How many times do I have to tell you people this?"

Tell someone who cares.

[Teaser]

18. Wasn't a direct reply to you.

"You people" was a generic response to the bitchers. I apologize if you thought I meant you. We all know who the bitchers are. They show up, suspiciously, whenever a poll bounces around in a direction that is "Bad" for Kerry.

[Zynx]

9. This will automatically tighten up due to normal poll variance.

[unfrigginreal]

11. I agree

It's a real good sign that Zogby says the undecideds haven't budged, since yesterday he saw a slight improvement for Bush there. The longer they hold out the better for Kerry, I think.

[0rganism]

16. If bush still leads on Monday, after last M-T massacre bounce, it's scary

For Rove to be pimping polls which show incumbent bush under 50% is pretty weak.