Okay, I trust Zogby... and it's showing Bush 48, Kerry 44

[liberalpragmatist]

Why? What could have happened? Is this just statistical noise? Just 2 or 3 days Zogby's tracking poll found that the number of undecideds who felt * deserved reelection was only 11%. Yesterday it was 18% and today it's 25%. What's going on?

Could the Mary-Cheney non-story really be doing this much damage? I'm quite baffled. I'm not panicking or anything, I think Kerry got a lot of momentum out of the debates and I think he's still in a pretty strong position. But why is Bush gaining?

[pmbryant]

1. One measly poll's statistical fluctuations

See this thread for another poll's statistical fluctuations: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x907313

--Peter

[bacchant]

2. Why do you trust Zogby?

Also, the fact that KKKarl recently told everybody to watch Zogby makes me a bit suspicious.

[KittyWampus]

8. Why Do You Trust Zogby?... Take Two

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. See Post Five Please

nt

[Gyre]

43. Zogby called the last race

much better than any other polling outfit. it's given Kerry better numbers than any of the other polling outfits in this election consistantly. http://www.zogby.com/news/index.cfm

Not sure what the latest info represents.

Gyre

[Jasper 91]

55. Why did Karl Rove say to watch out for Zogby ?

How could he know about it before hand unless he had something to do with it ?

I too have previously trusted Zogby and so do not understand this latest poll which turns all current opinion on its head .

[Claire Beth]

3. i don't trust any of the polls....

I read where the freepers had signed up in large numbers to vote in Zogby polls. Can't remember exactly where I saw that. Don't get discouraged....Kerry is doing just fine.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. It's A Phone Poll But Beware Of Zogby... (nt)

[LynneSin]

14. Phone poll, where there is another poll I'll never be able to take

I don't answer my home phone, haven't answered it since 2001. If you are calling me with my home number obviously I don't think very much of you because I do everything through my cell phone.

OK, I'm from Delaware so it's a mute point anyways!

[cheshire]

4. I dopn't mean to be rude but so what that you trust them? Who are you.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Zogby Is A Hack...

He had Lazio beating Hillary Clinton...


He had Dean gaining on Kerry in the waning days of the New Hampshire primary...

He called Al Gore Al Bore on The Beltway Boys during Campaign 00...

His poll was frequently cited by Rush during the Lewinsky brouhaha to demonstrate Clinton wasn't as popular as other polls suggest...

He had Bush only one point behind Gore in Cali the weekend before Election 00...

Karl Rove said the other day "to watch the Zogby poll"


I smell a skunk...

[59millionmorons]

16. Oh please stop

I am not going to stand up for Zogby's other polls, but when it comes to Presidential polls he is the best hands down you have no arguement because he has the results to back him up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Which One Of My Statements Is Untrue...

If Old Man Gallup called Al Gore Al Bore I'd call him into account too.


Zogby isn't the only pollster who knows how to poll....

go to www.ncpp.org


He's not infallable...

[Awsi Dooger]

47. Not a hack, but his state polls are much less reliable than national

That is not worthy of dispute.

You could have listed many more, including Strickland burying Allard in the Colorado senate race in 2002. The result was exactly reversed.

[CottonBear]

6. remember these words from Dem_Strategist:

"Polls: Ignore Them"

[59millionmorons]

9. No

You have to understand tracking polls. They are vulnerbal to show odd results. For example Kerry had a big day on Sunday that dropped off last night because you drop the last poll each day. Bush had a big day on Monday so that day is still there. So you drop Kerry's big day and keep Bushes big day, then you get a 48-44 result. Now today or tomorrow Bush's big day will drop off and it will tighten again, likely tomorrow or Sunday.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. How Can You Have A Big Day?

those polls are meant to represent the entire electorate....

if you take his poll as it meant to be taken Bush would win if the election was today......

that's a fact not my opinion...

[shraby]

20. The most telling stat of a poll in my estimation

is the "time for a change" and the confidence questions. The main percentages don't match up with the other stats in the same poll. Since most people only see the who's ahead stat, that's the one they jigger.

If you add all the NAACP, the pro-choice people, the gays, the elderly (prescription drugs), the young worried about the draft, the Cubans (can't visit Cuba only once every 3 years), the Muslims, the Gore votes from last election and other groups who are not happy with Bush, I'll be surprised if his percentage is about 35%.

[snippy]

11. Bush did appear to be much less mentally unbalanced in the last debate.

Many republicans who were frightened and disgusted by Bush in the first debate probably are more comfortable following their greed and voting for the lying sack of shit after his latest performance.

[childslibrarian]

34. He was foaming at the mouth!

He was less unbalanced?

[snippy]

42. True. But he still wasn't as bizarre as he was in the first debate. n/t

[Lizz612]

12. Whats the margin of error?

Its usually +/- 3 points, move three over and you have 45% Bush and 47% Kerry. I don't get worried till my candidate is 8 points behind the other guy in polls. Besides the only poll that counts for anything is the election.

[DuctapeFatwa]

13. Massacre Bounce. Compare the polls to the massacres. Consistent

Gotta give the voters what they want.

[agingdem]

15. Do you realize that...

very few people care about Dick, Lynne, and Mary? No one cares what the pundits are saying expect maybe the pundits themselves. The polls are a joke, and have rendered themselves useless. At this particular point in time, there are no undecideds (no matter what the talking heads want us to believe). If a reference to Mary's sexuality is enough to dissuade someone from voting for Kerry than Kerry was never going to get that vote anyway..

[Green Mountain Dem]

19. I don't trust any media poll and I say....

it's Kerry 75% and Bushfuck 24% and Nader 1%....now who you gonna believe...took my own poll and just randomly called over 500 people across the country. All I asked was if you're gonna vote this year who you gonna vote for. Not very scientific you say....neither is their's.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. But They Have More Or Less Nailed Every Presidential Election Since 52

www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm

[Green Mountain Dem]

23. That was before....

this administration!!! Many have defied..many have died..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Bush Sucks But Even He Can't Change The Laws Of Science(nt)

[delete_bush]

25. I don't see their name listed

from 1992 back. Did they go under a different name?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. No....Zogby Is A Relative Newcomer...

Gallup and Harris are among the oldest...

[delete_bush]

27. Gotcha. I took "they" to mean Zogby

vs. "polls"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Everybody Picked The Right Winner In 92 But Nobody Picked

Up The Perot phenomenon...

In retrospect it was amazing...


It would be interesting to see where those voters went...

[DaveinMD]

22. how many times to I need to say this

This is part of a tracking poll. Each day, 300 people are in the sample. With such a small daily sample, outlying results can occur and distort the data. This is what happened. In two days when this day is dropped, the poll will be back to normal. I've explained this on the other 5 threads on this topic.

[DancingBear]

30. Frustratin', ain't it??

Just wait until the 3-days start to get affected by the last debate - everyone here will be looking to rent formal wear for the Inagural Ball.

(my tuxedo IS clean, however) :) :)

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

28. You need to know

that any poll in which bush is not polling 50% or above means he is toast. And I haven't seen him poll 50% or above much, have you?

Why do I say this? The 50% Incumbent Rule. Historically, if an incumbent cannot even pull in 50% or more in polls leading up to the election (especially right near the election), he loses. The reason is because an incumbent's votes are less likely to move around. 48% is most likely bush's ceiling. 44% is Kerry's FLOOR. Think about that. Challengers pick up more of the undecideds than incumbents (adn that makes sense: if the incumbent had done a really good job, there wouldn't BE many undecideds....by definition the incumbent has already lost the undecided if they haven't gotten them by now, since reelections are primarily a mandate on the incumbent).

There is an article in the American Prospect about this, very good one.

It's not the comparison between bush and Kerry that says something right now, it's how low bush is polling compared to where he needs to be. I think the White House internals are showing this in a big way. Thus they are very nervous, as they should be.

[DancingBear]

40. I'll argue that 48% is Kerry's floor

I posted on this topic earlier today. The 48% is the Gore 2000 number - that, I feel, is Kerry's floor.

That's why anything showing Kerry under 48% is viewed (by me, anyway) with great skepticism.

[Awsi Dooger]

50. That's a good analysis

But I would argue the margin is also important. If Bush leads a final poll 48 -43, for example, we are severely unlikely to overcome that deficit, if the poll is legit.

Undecided voters do not break for the challenger in presidential races in as high a percentage as state or local. The challenger assumes such a high level of name recognition and visibility he becomes much more of a known quantity than challengers who receive 75% of the undecideds by default.

[Misunderestimator]

31. Oh please... "what's going on?" "why is Bush gaining?"

"why do I repeat all the talking points of the right wing?" :eyes:

[goodwalt]

32. CALM DOWN!

ONE poll report. MARGIN OF ERROR. NATIONAL poll numbers don't mean JACK, only the swing state electoral count means anything at this point (Texas swinging from 65% Bush to 75% Bush could account for these numbers- not that they did, I'm just sayin). Put a smile on your face, and put your faith in new voter registration numbers and pissed off Democratic turn out. Half assed close national numbers mean that Kerry WINS!

[DaveinMD]

35. its one bad day

in a rolling track. Its meaningless.

[w4rma]

33. Ignore all polls. Spend the time wisely, instead. (nt)

[kostya]

36. One lousy TRACKING poll, it's all noise at this point

What does your gut say? Kerry's gonna win this!!!

[doc03]

37. NBC Nightly News had Bush* practically back for 4 more years this

evening. According to them Kerry was pulling ads in 4 battleground states and Bush* is pulling ahead in 4 states that Gore carried in 2000.

[johnnyrocket]

38. MOE is what? 4, therefore think. Bush 44, Kerry 48

;)

[bigtree]

41. Bingo! Therefore: No change, even race with Bush on the run

We have the momentum.

[BUSHOUT]

39. Why? Why did you step on a nail? Why?

:argh:

[depakid]

44. Well, statisticians sure don't

The best that can be said for Zogby's unproven methodology is that it is controversial... no one who's even taken stats 101 will say anything more than that... so if you're interested in science, as opposed to blind faith,, you might want to reconsider trusting Zogby (or any other cheap media poll, for that matter).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. I Have Problems With Zogby Too...

What specifically is wrong with Zogby's methodology?

[depakid]

51. It depends on the poll

The interactive polls are done via the web, and while they at least acknowledge today's glaring problems with non-response bias and cell phone exclusion (unlike gallup, for instance) they're simply untested- so there's no way to determine their validity. Who cares if they'e "reliable" in the sense that they can be repeated if they don't reflect reality.

Moreover, his polls usually rely on predictive weighting and statistical "corrections" that are, in essense, educated guesswork.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. I Agree...

Polling is part art and science....


The science is the math in the polls and the art is the assumptions that go into the math....

[Awsi Dooger]

45. I'm positive Bush gained among women in debate #3, hopefully temporary

White women are the key to this election. They gave Bush his post-convention bounce then the soft top of Bush's convention support returned to Kerry after the first two debates. As an NBC reporter emphasized yesterday, women are a disproportionately high percentage of the remaining undecideds. You can see that in virtually every state poll.

I host debate watching parties among apolotical types for a reason, even though it costs me a hundred+ bucks each time. There were 19 this year, 11 men and 8 women. The average Americans in my living room provide an instant reality check, often completely different than post-debate spin or what the media focuses on.

As I reported here Wednesday night, the eight women in my home spoke much more highly of Bush after debate three than any time during the debates. They loved his answer to the "strong women in your life' question, particularly the anecdote about meeting Laura at a barbeque. Virtually everyone in my house was miffed and uncomfortable when Kerry brought up the lesbian daughter, especially women. Kerry's biggest supporter among the group immediately said, "I can't believe he said that."

I would say the women generally favor Kerry 6-2 among my group. They were 7-1 estimating Kerry won debate #1 and 6-2 in #2. In the final debate it was 5-3, in other words an edge to Bush from their default tendency. It's a ghastly possibility those two questions/responses could retain the presidency for Bush.

Based on conversation during our post-debate meal, I'm almost sure that final question and Bush's warm response is more responsible for his uptick among women than Kerry's lesbian reference. While I gobbled pizza, the women chatted admirably amout Bush's answer to the "strong women" question time and again. Including women who had never said anything positive about Bush in my presence. I mentioned that on DU Wednesday night. There were a couple of remarks about the lesbian comment, but at least a 3/1 chat time ratio in favor of the "strong women" response.

I expect other polls to swing to Bush this weekend. My debate watchers inevitably forecast the trend. The good news is its plenty early. But I suggest Kerry make further appearances on Oprah, etc. and have policy speeches and comercials designed to rescue the women's vote.

[fugop]

48. Interesting

I could have sworn that in the polls of undecideds on one of the channel's (CBS?) Kerry did gangbusters with the women, much better than Bush.

[Princess Turandot]

53. I was watching CNN Fn which had viewers reacting to answers simultaneously

with some gizmo that then produced blue and pink graphs that ran on top of the shot of the debators. On most questions, the women seemed to me to react more favorably to Kerry than Bush. I don't know for sure who their audience was, but I assumed it was undecided voters.

[Awsi Dooger]

54. I saw that also

Admittedly I'm dealing with a very small sample with my debate watching group. But they were appalled by Gore's sighs in debate #1. Three switched sides immediately and were literally embarrassed they were thinking of voting for Gore. After Bush's awful debate #1 this year, I posted that Kerry's poll surge would be more than the media expected, given the reactions of the women in my living room.

It's possible Bush gained among women who were not pure undecideds, but soft Kerry supporters who switched again. The balance of the debate definitely favored Kerry over Bush among any issue that women should prioritize. The damn "strong women" question gained unusual significance because of its placement, final question. Kind of like boxing judges who are influenced by the final 30 seconds of a round. It was the first time in the three debates Bush demonstrated the so-called "likeability" that supposedly won the debates in 2000.

Of course, perhaps the Zogby trend is pure bullshit and my debate watching group off base. The next 48 hours should tell.

[ramapo]

49. Mary Cheney

War, jobs, environmental degradation, constitutional issues, secrecy,
homeland security, tax fairness, corporate power, and on and on. Anybody who changes their vote because Kerry mentioned Cheney's daughter is dumb enough to deserve Bush as their leader.