Don't laugh- Okla. might go Kerry!

[goodwalt]

Alright, maybe a chuckle or two is appropriate, but I saw something this morning that blew me away. Our local right-wing, Repug rag published a poll showing that since last week, Kerry has narrowed the gap DRAMATICALLY. The poll is by some jerkwater outfit called Wilson Research Strategies. Last weeks numbers were Kerry 27.8%, * 58.4%, Undecided 13.8%. Today, they read Kerry 38%, * 49.6, and Undecided 12.4%.

Yes, I know that polling numbers have been ridiculously inconsistent this year. Yes, I know that one poll report from an outfit I have never heard is a pretty thin limb to crawl out on- and yes, I know that a 12 point lead still looks like a big hurdle to get over. Stop trying to bring me down for a second, and take a peek through my rose colored glasses.

For some time now I have been lamenting the wildly divergent numbers we see between Gallup, Zogby(good guys), Survey USA, Rasmussen,Mason-Dixon, etc. My paranoid Dem explanation (no, screw paranoid, I'm pretty sure I'm right) is that Repugs have been putting their thumbs on some of these scales. If the Daily Joklahoman commissioned these clowns to do a poll- it's a pretty safe bet that they fall among some of the heavy thumbed pollsters listed above. If that is so, then it is entirely possible that a legitimate outfit (like Zogby) would be reporting even better numbers.

From there, consider the historical trend of undecideds breaking 2 to 1 AGAINST the incumbent. Then factor in all of the new registrants almost certainly not being counted (Like everywhere else- Oklahoma is reporting a surge in registration). Throw in cell-phone only, younger voters not counted, a greatly expanded Latino population from 2000, and the aftermath of *'s impending public ass-whipping on domestic issues- and it strikes me as POSSIBLE that Oklahoma could shock the civilized world, pull it's collective head out of it's ass- and become a blue state on Nov. 3rd.

Even if you profoundly disagree with my assessment- be gentle. A red state Dem can dream, can't he?

[cheezus]

1. can we blame bartcop if it does?

his ego would love it

[disgruntled_goat]

4. heh thats what i thought

From Bartcop to the World.

[Eurobabe]

2. no we could blame it on WES CLARK!!

they loved him out there...

[henslee]

3. Come on, those Oklahoma online post debate polls were so Bush.

[Rageneau]

5. hee hee hee, ho ho ho, ha ha ha

Oklahoma going Dem?

Like Bartcop says, "Make them stop."

[kaitykaity]

6. If JK would have Wes Clark campaign in

Henryietta, Okemah, McAlester, Ada, Ardmore,
Holdenville.....

Then yeah, I'd believe it.

[dolstein]

7. Sure, if all the Republicans suddenly dropped dead

we'd have a race on our hands in Oklahoma. But even if only registered Democrats were allowed to vote in Oklahoma, I think a Kerry win would hardly be a sure thing.

[spotbird]

8. There is a lot to be hopeful about here.

We will elect a Democrat to the senate, and elect at least two Democrats to the house. The senate and one of the house seats are currently held by Republicans.

Could Kerry do it? The signs won't stay in stock, the Republicans must be genuinely petrified since they have their brown shirts taking them down as fast as we distribute them. If the signs stayed up and people could see the support, you'd be amazed.

They can silence dissent but we still have fair elections in Oklahoma, at least up until now.

[cyr330]

34. Really?

Do you really think you'll send a Democrat to the Senate? That would be great if you do!

[OKNancy]

9. Oklahoma is not going Kerry

Gore got 38% btw

However, I've never seen so many Democratic yard signs as this year, and I sure know people are more energized. But it is a pipedream.

[Cleopatra2a]

15. I saw the same thing

I saw lots of K-E signs in Lawton and in my small town. They even opened up a Demo office here in our downtown. And for the "bigwigs" to allow this to happen means something! They control all the businesses in this town. The local theater is outside the city limits, because they were giving him a hard time. The city council was told never to step foot in his establishment.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

10. This may make you smile

Recently I went to a sweatlodge ceremony. There were folks there from OK, and NONE, I repeat NONE were voting Bush. I didn't see a one of them look negatively at my numerous Kerry stickers on my car.

[Iris]

12. do you usually run into a lot of Republicans at sweatlodge ceremonies?

Not everyone in a red state is red.

Take me. I live in GA and I'm ultra-liberal.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

26. the folks who run the lodge

are conservatives with a libertarian streak, so yeah.

[Iris]

35. actually, I thought of that possiblity after I posted!

Guess I shouldn't go around making generalizations!

[karlrschneider]

11. I'm not buying any dancing shoes, BUT here is something VERY interesting

I live in a very RW lakeside community (Ft. Gibson)and day before yesterday I drove down every single street in the part of it where I live (there's another section, sort of, back the other way, haven't checked over there yet) and saw ZERO yard signs for W. Not one. However I only saw 2 Kerry signs, mine and the one I got for my friend a couple blocks away. I have no idea if it means anything, but in 2000 there were a LOT of W signs. :eyes:

[Nightjock]

13. There is something in the wind

You can throw away every poll. As has been discussed ad naseum, turnout is going to be tremendous for Kerry. Ignorant bush supporters are not motivated, ect.
I would only be slightly surprised if bush only won Texas.

[Z_I_Peevey]

14. This Okie has been waiting since childhood

to see this state vote Democratic in a Presidential race and I'm a grandma now. Doesn't mean I don't do everything I can to wake people up to the horror that is W.

I'd be thrilled if Kerry could get over 40%.

But hey, miracles DO happen. Kerry in a landslide!

[okTracer]

22. Miracles

I'm all for Oklahoma to go Kerry!!!

[quaoar]

16. I'm not laughing

People laughed months ago at the idea of winning the Senate seat in Oklahoma. They were laughing at the idea of beating Jim Bunning and taking the Senate seat in Kentucky. They laughed at the thought of winning the seat in South Carolina.

They laughed at the idea that Tom DeLay could be beaten.

But all those things are possible -- if we don't make assumptions and write off races as unwinnable.

All things are possible this year.

This is the year of The Perfect Storm.

[Nightjock]

17. Can I borrow that line?

"This is the year of The Perfect Storm."

That's brilliant!

[quaoar]

25. Feel free

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Betting who wins Oklahoma: not just an out price, no price at all

The offshore wagering outfits I deal with have not listed Oklahoma all year. Nor will they.

It would be in the area of a 1/1,000,000,000 in favor of Bush. That is no exaggeration. And that would be low.

[Indykatie]

20. You have my sympathy.

I too live in one of the very red states, Indiana. Even so, dems are energized and new voter registration is up significantly over past years. There are a a lot fewer BC signs around the city this year. I guess the Repubs are embarrassed to admit their continuing support. I am helping the campaign by doing outreach calls to Ohio this weekend.

[IIgnoreNobody]

19. The whole notion of unalterably red or blue states is poison to democracy.

And it is based on the obviously false proposition that the future will always be like the past.

[funkybutt]

21. Don't Laugh: Louisiana might go Kerry!

no shit! no...seriously! I've had a lot of people laugh at me when I say we have a chance here, so I know how you feel. Louisiana Loves Kerry

[Awsi Dooger]

27. Louisiana would have been much more realistic

I think the Kerry camp overreacted to early state polls and disregarded Louisiana too early. IMO, it's one of the most serious blunders of this cycle. I guarantee Louisiana was a better chance for Kerry than Virginia ever was, for example.

[strategery blunder]

31. Well, Louisiana went for Clinton, didn't it?

I consider it somewhere between a red and a swing state--it doesn't fit well into either category.

[elperromagico]

38. Twice; the second time with 52% of the vote. n/t

[bobbieinok]

23. talked to 2 young women cashiers in Tulsa 2 weeks ago

One at Borders, one at KFC.

I asked if they were registered; answer yes. Quietly said I hope you're voting for Kerry.

Each said very firmly, I sure am; I can't stand Bush.

Each said several in the family were also.


I would be very surprised to see Kerry win Ok, but his vote may be significantly higher than Gore's in 2000.

Don't forget, there's an anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot being pushed hard by the local RW talk shows.

[Zynx]

24. It might have gone for someone like Carter(he came close), but not Kerry.

However, Oklahoma can be turned Democrat again by taking a pro-gun stance and focusing on populist economic messages.

[napi21]

29. I don't know about that. There are lot of pubs really pissed about

shrub's 3 1/2 years. They don't like that he's never vetoed a spending bill, passed the high medicare spending plan, and is loosing the war. I don't think they'll vote for Kerry, but I think there's a big chance they might vote for the Constitution, or Libertarian Party candidate.

[StevenD]

28. OK Dems left in the 30's

I believe many OK Dems left in the dust bowl of the great depression, which would explain the heavy Repug advantage. My grandparents along with my dad left for California and a better life. There were many other poor and working class people (Dems) that left during the great depression.

If Kerry wins OK, he will win 45+ states.

[goodwalt]

33. No- they are still here-

Believe it or not, Oklahoma is predominantly Democratic. We have a Democratically controlled legislature and a Democrat as Governor. A majority of registered voters (not an overwhelming majority, but a significant one) are registered as Democrats. WHY we haven't gone for a Dem as president since LBJ is a mystery. Something else I didn't mention is that we a state lottery on the ballot this year to further induce long hibernating Dems out of their caves and to the polls. Still have my glasses on.

[TruthIsAll]

30. Beautifully stated. If Kerry takes OK, he will redefine "landslide"

He would carry at least 45 states with over 500 EV.

[RobertDevereaux]

32. May it be so!

[WI_DEM]

36. OK will likely go to Bush but if Kerry makes a better showing

than Gore getting 40% or more--it will help the overall popular vote.

[October]

37. Does Bartcop know?!

[kath]

39. yeah, when pigs fly.

I hate living in Okie hell... There are just SOOOOO many frickin' right-wing morans here.

[elperromagico]

40. Even if it doesn't, let's hope Bush thinks it might.

Blow some money in OK to solidify your base, G. Dub! While you're at it, pour some money into VA, NC, and SC. Blow loads of money!

[cheshire]

41. Strange things have happened. Pray or whatever you do people.

[NoodleBoy]

42. just looked up OK on CU...

good sign: the house and senate are majority Democratic

bad sign: Inhofe is from there

[kath]

43. The problem is that what they call a "Democrat" here would be a Repug

'most anywhere else. And a pretty right-wing pug at that. The "Democratic" Senate candidate is a Zell Miller type :-(

[NoodleBoy]

45. er, to your knowledge,

has any democratic elected official endorsed bush?

if anything, conservative democrats would stop conservatives from voting for bush-- unless they're Zell-- and that could be a deciding factor in something.

[Mortos]

46. That is not true

Brad Carson is running as a conservative Democrat. He is not a Zell Miller type. I have campaigned door to door for this man and though he is more conservative than I am, he is still a far better candidate than his opponent who advocates the killing of abortion providers.

Please do not compare him to Zell Miller. He is running the way he is because it is what he has to do to win. Control of the US senate is within our reach. Don't form that infamous circular firing squad on democratic candidates with a chance to win.

[kath]

50. I'll vote for Carson, and if he gets in and tips the majority in the

Senate the committee chairs will go to Dems, which would be a *great* thing. But he sure seems like a DINO, and from what I've read I wonder if he'll be voting with the Dem caucus at all. How long will it take him to pull a Ben Turncoat Campbell? Few if any of his stands on the issues sound Democratic. A friend who saw the debate with Coburn on Beat the Press said you really could barely tell who the Democrat was!

Yeah, I'll vote for him, and yeah, you're right, he's way better than that incredible asshole Coburn.

<on edit -- yeah, maybe rather than saying a "Zell Miller type", I should have said "like Zell Miller WAS, before he *totally* went off the deep end and decided to endorse W at the convention" or just said "a major-league DINO">

[Mortos]

44. There are alot more Democrats in OK

and disenfranchised republicans than people know. I would love to see OK go Kerry (that would be a kick in the teeth for team Bush). If it does, it is because of people like GoodWalt and others who are working together to change one mind at a time. I know that he has converted several as have I and it only takes a couple of thousand people to do that and we have a tectonic shift. Kerry signs and bumper stickers outnumber bush (not by much). There does not seem to be the passion for Bush that there is for Kerry.

Another poster put it best; the answer to any question about the election is: Kerry in a landslide.

Let's keep repeating this mantra until it comes true.

Good for you GoodWalt.

[fujiyama]

47. Very unlikely to happen

but Kerry may break 40%. THat'd be something of an accomplishment in itself.

Also, Carson could have reverse coattails...He's way too conservative for my taste, but I'd still hold my nose and vote for him if I lived in that state.

[DURHAM D]

48. I lived in Oklahoma for many years. Still talk to friends in

Oklahoma City several times a month. Because of the type of work my friends are engaged in they spend time with very wealthy Republicans (oil people)on a daily basis. None of the oil people are voting for Bush - they are embarassed at how stupid he is and want him off the stage. Also, the Bushes don't give good parties.

[TexasProgressive]

49. Nice Dream

It could happen!

I've known so many good traditional democrats from OK. I've always enjoyed my visits to OKC and Tulsa.

It could be worse for you. You could be due south, down in Texas. It is HELL down here for Democrats.

So here's my dream, and mine is TRULY a delusion. Tom DeLay loses. Go ahead, laugh.

Wouldn't it be nice?

[goodwalt]

51. I'd prefer to read

that he was hit by a bus, but I'd settle for Delay losing. I think my bus fantasy may be more probable.