Pollster John Zogby: "A close race got closer"

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

The poll of 1,223 likely voters was taken Saturday through Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. This was the first poll conducted entirely after Friday's debate, when Bush and Kerry sniped at each other over Iraq (news - web sites), jobs and taxes.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&u=/nm/20041012/pl_nm/campaign_poll_tuesday_dc_2

1). 35 percent of undecided voters give Bush a positive job rating, 50 percent give him a negative rating.
2). Bush holds solid leads among married voters, military families, investors and those living in states he won in the 2000 race against Democrat Al Gore.
3). Kerry holds leads over Bush among single voters, moderate voters, union voters and those living in states won by Gore.
4). Newly registered voters lean toward Kerry by 49-42 percent.
5). Those who have already voted give a slight edge to Bush by 48-43 percent.
6). Kerry continues to lead Bush among voters who view the economy, education and the war in Iraq as the top issue.
7). Bush holds a huge 71-25 percent lead among those who cite the war on terror as their top issue.
8). 49 percent of voters thought the United States was headed in the wrong direction.
9). 45 percent thought it was headed in the right direction.

[SCDem]

1. #5 is a bit mysterious to me

5). Those who have already voted give a slight edge to Bush by 48-43 percent.

In 2000 those that voted the majority voted for Gore so this would mean that there is a large percentage, meaning 2-3% (which is statistically signifcant)that voted for Gore in 2000 and are now going to vote Bush in 2004. I just don't buy that.

[DaveinMD]

2. How do I say this with tact

Some older Democratic voters may have moved on to a more peaceful place.

[WI_DEM]

3. already voted Bush has 48% which is exactly what he got

in 2000. It means that much of the rest are either voting for a third party candidate or undecided.

[papau]

17. Gallup seems to agree

[MallRat]

7. Maybe they mean early voters in 2004, not previous voters in 2000?

Repubs have been pushing hard to get their voters locked-in by absentee ballot as early as possible. I don't think Gore supporters suddenly started voting for Bush- I just think Bush supporters are slightly more likely to have already sent in their ballots.

Is this what they mean by "already voted?"

-MR

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. You Nailed It...

Zogby's referring to early voter or absentee voters...


Don't get so excited over one day's results from a tracking poll...

The other day Kerry had a lead with early voters...

All we now is the race is going to be close....


Peace

Brian

[KansDem]

4. No. 7

Bush holds a huge 71-25 percent lead among those who cite the war on terror as their top issue.

Osama is the best thing to ever happen to Bush. No wonder he hasn't been found, captured or killed. As long as he's on the loose, Bush will continue to enjoy high marks with this issue.

[RobertDevereaux]

6. That's why Kerry really needs to...

...hammer at this myth every day from now on, quote Chuck Hagel and the other GOPers who have seen the light, bring up the ignored and retired military advisers.

We are *less* safe, thanks to the Chimp.

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

10. Comments from OBL's son after "we will smoke him out of his cave"

After Bush made the first few "He can run, but he can't hide" comments (about OBL, before he started making them about John Kerry), one of his sons was quoted as saying "They will never catch my father. He is like Superman."

No, he's not like Superman. He has the good fortune to gave been "hunted down" by a U.S. president who is easily distracted, who takes the path of least resistance and biggest media bounce, and...after completely dropping the ball on OBL...can STILL get "high marks" for "fighting the war on terror" while making comments like "Osama bin Laden is no longer our top priority."

[Stephanie]

5. 35% Bush job approval among undecided - that clinches it

Bush is toast.

[merh]

8. Do you wonder that the results on #7 may be telling us

something other than * is popular?

7). Bush holds a huge 71-25 percent lead among those who cite the war on terror as their top issue.

Maybe * holds that lead because a large marjority of folks don't believe the terra threats are legit - admin has cried wolf too many times. The percentages may be high because only folks that drank the kool aide responded that the war on terror is a top issue and the number of those that responded terra was a top issue is a relatively low number.

Most folks realize the economy and the war are much more important issues. They just don't give you the break down percentage wise.
6). Kerry continues to lead Bush among voters who view the economy, education and the war in Iraq as the top issue.


The boy that cried wolf will cry when he leaves the WH!

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

11. Comments on the economy and debate #2 from Air America Radio

On yesterday's blow-by-blow rundown of debate #2 on Air America Radio (and I apologize in advance, I do not remember if this was on "Unfiltered" or The O'Franken Factor), this comment was made (not a quote, this is my recap):

The second debate was slightly skewed by the fact that Charlie Gibson, as moderator, was locked into selecting 50% questions on international issues and 50% domestic. Given the audience that showed up for the debate and the questions submitted, the people in that room would not have chosen "the war on terror" as their first choice of discussion. They REALLY wanted to spend the entire time going after the candidates on domestic issues such as jobs and healthcare, but the format of the debate did not support it."

So "those who cite the war on terror as their top issue" could be a smaller percent of those who have been looking 1, 2, 3 years for a job...those who are working TWO jobs and struggling to make ends meet...those with no health care...and so on.

[Fed Up]

12. As soon as Gallup says K is ahead, Zogby the old standby says no.

I can't wait till this thing is over.

All the polls I see from now on will go in one eye, and out the other.


I'm confident of a Kerry landslide.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I Bleed Democratic But I Don't See A Landlide...

If you define landslide as anything greater than a six percent win you will be disappointed...

Bush seems to be stuck around 48% which is where he ended up last year...


My fearless prediction


Kerry 49.5

Bush 48.5

Nad(i)r .5

Scattered 1.5%

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

15. I believe it will be so close that...

...it will take a while to get rid of those "do you realize what COULD have happened" feelings and move forward. But I do believe, whether it's by "the skin of our teeth" or not, we WILL win.

This election will NOT be determined by "traditional" voters...the ones who show up and vote regularly because that is what they do, regardless of good years or bad years.

It will be determined by:

1). Young, "first time" and / or politically re-energized voters who MIGHT HAVE kicked back and been apathetic during good, "smooth sailing" Clinton-style years. They WANT jobs, they DON'T want to get drafted, they DON'T want to get handed a bill for Junior's mistakes when they hit retirement age (and they don't want to pass it on to their kids, either).

2). "Fence Sitters" who get off the fence as the result of things like DU, last night's concert, Michael Moore, etc. etc. etc.

3). People who voted for Bush the first time and didn't get what they wanted or expected. Remember, not all of the people with Bush bumper stickers on their card from 2000 are members of the "upper one percent club"...or as our beloved leader puts it, "the "haves" and the "have mores."

:toast:

[mvd]

14. Thanks for posting

I want to see every Zogby poll regardless of the news it has. I hope Kerry puts Bush away tomorrow. I thought Bush was terrible in the second debate, but the format made a putaway unlikely.

[Snivi Yllom]

16. I saw a rumor that new polls coming out in WI, IA and OH

have * up, Kerry tied in PA and up in NJ by 6

OHIO
Bush 51%
Kerry 45%

IOWA
Bush 49%
Kerry 47%

PENNSYLVANIA
Bush 46%
Kerry 46%

WISCONSIN
Bush 49%
Kerry 45%

NEW JERSEY
Kerry 47%
Bush 41%