any stats guru out there? who will get the undecided votes

[private_ryan]

how do the undecideds or leaning break usually? Any stats out here? Let's assume that we're even (I know we lead but..) or (worst case) 2 points down, is that historically good for the challenger?

[ScreamingMeemie]

1. Zogby has said that, based on the undecideds, the race is Kerry's

to lose. :hi:

Those were some great words to hear last week.

[tedoll78]

2. Undecideds usually break for the challenger.

the usual break is with a margin of about 2-to-1, but we've seen 3-to-1 in some recent elections.

Even if Kerry were to only get a 3-to-2 break (60% of the undecideds), he'd still be in really nice shape. If I had to guess, I'd say that the break margin, the real number of undecideds (still unknown), and the number of new voters turning-out are the three big wildcards right now.

[TruthIsAll]

3. Undecideds break to the challenger by at least 2-1.

Undecideds break to the challenger by at least 2-1. This is a historical fact. It makes sense, because if someone is till undecided about Bush, they must not like the job he has done.

Check out the first screen of the Election Model to see how Kerry's win probability, expected electoral vote and popular vote change as the undecided allocation to Kerry changes assuming he gets 50%, 55%, 60%, 67%, 75%:

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/