As Islamists Dominate Egypt's Election, the Power Struggle with the Military Begins

[oberliner]

The Muslim Brotherhood is Egypt's political mainstream, and its most significant challengers are the more extreme Islamists of the Salafi movement rather than the secular liberal forces that dominate the Tahrir Square protest movement. That appears to be the not-exactly-surprising verdict of the electorate, according to reports from the first two days of voting in Egypt's protracted parliamentary election.

The official announcement of results from the nine (out of a total of 27) provinces has been delayed until Friday or Saturday, but the New York Times reports that the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party looks to have garnered some 40% of the vote, while a further 25% could go to the even more conservative Salafist al-Nour party. Despite the apparent Islamist majority, Brotherhood leaders hastened to reassure Egyptians Thursday that they have no intention of seeking a coalition with the Salafists, seeing secular parties as the more natural ally for their vision of a democratic Egypt. If anything, the Islamists' share of the vote is more likely to grow than shrink, considering that the electoral districts that voted this week were the most urban, middle class and liberal.

So, despite the fury and drama of recent events on Tahrir Square, the election looks set to demonstrate that the liberal and socialist activists who have driven the protest movement remain a minority element on the wider Egyptian political landscape. And the results of that democratic test of the relative strength of Egypt's various political currents could significantly alter the terms of the post-Mubarak power struggle in the months ahead.

The three-way standoff between the ruling military junta, the Islamists and the secular-liberal revolutionaries that has dominated Egyptian politics since the ouster of the strongman President Hosni Mubarak last February is reminiscent of a Hong Kong gangster-movie cliche: Three men, each armed with two guns, points one at each of the other two. The generals and the Brotherhood made common cause last March in the referendum that decided to hold the current election as the basis for writing a new constitution. (The liberals, fearful of a drubbing at the polls by the Islamists, wanted elections delayed, and a constitution written first by a committee of experts acceptable to the opposition movements.)

http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/12/01/as-islamists-dominate-egypts-election-the-power-struggle-with-the-military-begins/