Early Results in Egypt Show a Mandate for Islamists

[pelsar]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/01/world/middleeast/voting-in-egypt-shows-mandate-for-islamists.html?pagewanted=all

Egypt’s mainstream Islamist group, appeared to have taken about 40 percent of the vote, as expected. But a big surprise was the strong showing of ultraconservative Islamists, called Salafis, many of whom see most popular entertainment as sinful and reject women’s participation in voting or public life.

Analysts in the state-run news media said early returns indicated that Salafi groups could take as much as a quarter of the vote, giving the two groups of Islamists combined control of nearly 65 percent of the parliamentary seats.

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Egypt election results put Muslim Brotherhood ahead
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/30/egypt-election-results-muslim-brotherhood?newsfeed=true

With preliminary results trickling through from Cairo, Alexandria and seven other regions, the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party seems set to emerge as the biggest winner, with some analysts estimating it will capture about 40% of seats in the new legislature. Al-Nour, a more conservative Salafist party, looks likely to secure second place.

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oops.....its not like it wasn't a clear and obvious possibility. However i doubt there was much any western country could do about that. So we've seen gaza go to hamas, tunisia has their "moderates' egypt is going to the MB ...and the Palestenians in the west bank?

at least with them, they're maybe something that can be done to prevent hamas from taking over.....but that will take people who believe in primarily in human and civil rights, freedom of speech as a primary right over nationalistic goals

[MineralMan]

1. This result is far from surprising.

Democracy can lead to governments that don't match the ideals of other countries. Islam is a pervasive influence in Egypt, and it's not at all surprising that conservative Islamic points of view will dominate the new elected government. I'm sure that will come as a huge surprise to some, though, who know little about Egypt and its culture. We here in the US don't often comprehend the cultures of the Middle East, and it gets us in trouble over and over again.

[pelsar]

3. yea i noticed that about US politics...

something about seeing things through "rose colored glasses"

[limpyhobbler]

2. Could it be that

Just wondering here...
Could it be that the institutional left/center-left/democratic forces are weak in Egypt after decades of repression, and this partially accounts for the election results?

The religious parties, everyone is familiar with. Centrist parties need to yet develop. Also, it's OK if people in Egypt "have a religion" and vote for parties that also have that religion in the name. I think the more important question is 'will the major parties all respect the election process into the future?' If so, things will get better for the Egyptian people. I have a hard time believing that a majority of Egyptians would favor a repressive religous-based government, such as what we see in Saudi Arabia or Iran.

Not an expert though, just thinking about it and asking, if anyone has any thoughts.

[pelsar]

4. no....

the way to power in the middle east is through the poor...you don't feed them politics or ideology, you literally feed them. You give their kids free nursery where they get fed and clothed and their parents can feel good that their kids are being taken care of....and so what if there is a bit of religion thrown in, isn't it more important that your children are being fed?

and that is how the religious build their army, through generation after generation, filling in the cracks where the govt fails....they poor accept the religion and the kids grow up with it and when the time is ripe, they make their move and take over:

and since they are the party of god and god has given them the right to govern, they will not be giving it up to the infidels, that power....

two examples are hizballa in lebanon, hamas in gaza

[MineralMan]

5. Unlike the US, Egypt has an overpoweringly dominant religion.

That seems to be hard for us here to understand. It's not really a question of whether Islam will play an important role in the outcome of elections. That's a given, in Egypt and in most Muslim countries. Islam is pervasive and is the religion of almost every person in Egypt. It's very unlike the US in that way. So, religion will always play a role in any election held in Egypt. Unlike Christianity, Islam is not split into thousands of factions or denominations. It is far more unified than Christianity. Further, tolerance for non-Islamic religions is very low there, and in most Muslim countries.

What that means is that strong Islamic parties will dominate almost any election in Egypt. There's not really any way that won't happen, which is why I've been cautioning people that the uprising in Egypt would probably not lead to an open secular government. That is simply not going to happen anytime soon. Sharia law is a given - a starting point for any government in that country, no matter how it is formed. Expecting anything else will lead to disappointment. Egypt is what Egypt is, and wishful thinking will not change that.

[sabbat hunter]

6. According to news reports I have seen from

MSNBC, the FJP was passing out literature, food, etc on the polling lines, which is in clear violation of the election laws.

Not a good start by a democratically elected parliament in Egypt. This parliament will get to write the new constitution, and with Islamist parties controlling 65% of the seats you can be sure it will not be good for equal rights for women, civil liberties and rights for religious minorities in Egypt.

[Scurrilous]

7. U.S. congratulates Egypt on 'successful' start to election

Secretary of State Clinton issues statement calling for Egypt's transition to democracy to continue in a 'just, transparent and inclusive manner'; says U.S. will continue to stand by Egypt.

<snip>

"U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Wednesday congratulated Egypt on its first parliamentary election since former president Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in February.

"I congratulate the Egyptian people for a peaceful, successful start to their election process," Clinton said in a statement.

She called for the transition to democracy to continue in a "just, transparent and inclusive manner.”

"The American people will continue to stand by the people of Egypt as they move toward a democratically elected civilian government that respects universal human rights and will meet their aspirations for dignity, freedom, and a better life," she said."

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/u-s-congratulates-egypt-on-successful-start-to-election-1.398773

[vminfla]

8. Enjoy your last election Egypt

One man, one vote, one time.

[LeftishBrit]

9. Ugh

Was it Churchill who said that 'democracy is the worst possible system - except for all the others.'

And sometimes it's only slightly better than the others.

I hope that Egypt won't end up as a case of 'out of the frying pan, into the fire'.

[shira]

10. Shocker....not! How's that Arab Spring looking now? n/t

[aranthus]

11. Democracy is not enough to support a civilized state.

Without a tolerant society, a belief in Liberty, and a respect for individual rights, what you get is mob rule. You get the tyranny of the majority.

[shira]

12. Dark days - actually decades - coming for Egypt. Very sad. Very scary. n/t

[aranthus]

13. I hesitate to analogize to a prior historical period.

And please take this with a huge grain of salt, and a recognition that there are huge differences between the two time periods. However, to the extent that one can generalize, we appear to be going through roughly the same process as occurred in the 1930's with the rise of Fascism. That is the noxious political ideology of Islamism is gaining a growing foothold in a particular part of the world, just as Fascism rose in Germany, Japan, and Italy. Dark days for Egypt? Absolutely. Dark days for a lot of places. Iran, Egypt, Gaza, Lebanon, Tunisia, Morocco, Libya are, or will soon be, Islamist societies. Algeria and Pakistan long ago would be were it not for the Army. Syria is probably next. Then the Gulf States and Jordan. Now add this. The superpower patron the Arabs lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union, they are likely to get back as China. Add the recent presumed failure of Israeli arms in Lebanon and Gaza, and the resulting loss of fear of the IDF. What does that mean? This. There were three factors which led to a relatively tranquil Middle East in the 80's and 90's: A presumption of Israeli military superiority; moderate Arab dictators who had better things to do than lose wars to Israel; and the Arabs' lack of a superpower patron. To a greater or lesser extent, all of those things are going away. We are going to be living through interesting times.

[pelsar]

14. rather a scary scenario....yet

i cannot deny that it may very well be.....politiicans hook up with one another and aid one another, support one another...if the islamists take egypt, they've got gaza, they've got iran....this doesn't look good

hey but this is the DU, as i understand it, we are suppose to recognize that "the people have spoken" and we should rejoice in their making their own choices....(consequences are not usually considered relevant)

[shira]

15. It's not just DU'ers. What other major Western media outside Israel questioned the Arab Spring...

...months ago, bracing for radical Islamists taking over instead of the "Facebook youth"? That very possibility wasn't even brought up. You'd have to search very hard to find something other than from the rightwing.

Instead they reported that either the Facebook youth and seculars would win out, or the "moderate" Islamists who love Hamas would win the elections. Nothing about one cycle of elections and decades of even worse authoritarian and theocratic rule.

So the Egypt election is now a "shocker".

It'll still be downplayed, however. Hope for the best! And if the worst happens.......?

======

The problem is fear and bigotry IMO.

[Mosby]

16. Barry Rubin: Egyptian Election Outcome is Worse Than I Expected

Since last February I have predicted that the Muslim Brotherhood would win elections in Egypt. People have thought me very pessimistic. Now the votes are starting to come in and…it’s much worse than I thought. But my prediction that the Brotherhood and the other Islamists would gain a slight majority seems to have been fulfilled and then some. According to most reports the Brotherhood is scoring at just below 40 percent all by itself.

Why worse? For two reasons:

First, the votes we now have come from the most urban areas of the country. If there are Facebook sophisticates they’re going to be in Cairo and Alexandria. If the moderates do that bad in the big cities, what’s going to happen in the villages up the Nile? If the fascist party came in first in some European countries Social Democratic districts you know you are in trouble.

The Brotherhood came in first in Cairo and Alexandria. Think about that. Of course there are millions of migrants from rural areas in those places but that’s also where the middle class, such as it is, lives.

Second, the moderate parties didn’t even come in second they came in third or close to it. The Salafists—that is people who are even more radical than the Muslim Brotherhood—came in second. That they did that well is a surprise. That they did that well without bumping the Brotherhood down a notch is really shocking.

more at:
http://pjmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/11/30/flash-what-me-...