Iran Invites Israeli Bombers to Visit its Nuclear Facilities

[oberliner]

Signals from Tehran and the recent IAEA report on the country's nuclear activities provide unmistaken clues that the Iranian government may welcome a limited bombing of its nuclear facilities. This in order to unleash a patriotic swell bound to bolster the Ahmadinejad regime. The IAEA report issued on 18 February 2010 reveals out of the ordinary details of the Iranian program.

The Natanz enrichment site first. The basic well advertised provocation is of course the decision to re-enrich the low-enriched fuel available on site (at less than 5%) to the upper limit of what may be defined as low-enriched uranium (20%). Allowed by the Non Proliferation Treaty, but not by the Security Council. The second provocation is to do so - not in the bomber-proof underground tunnels of the Natanz Production Facility - but in a vulnerable surface building , the Pilot Facility. The third provocation was to transfer in one go on February 14 the complete stock of low-enriched uranium, some 2000 kilograms, from the same deep underground tunnels to the above-ground Pilot Facility. Therefore, today, one precision-guided air-to-ground missile could disperse the whole strategic stock of Iranian enriched uranium! Why are these moves deemed to be sheer provocations? Because, there were alternatives aplenty: re-enrich uranium with the 3000 unused centrifuges in the cellars of Natanz, or bring up to the surface gradually only the daily low-enrich feed required by the Pilot Facility.

Similar situation in Esfahan. The IAEA reports that Iran has announced the construction of several R&D lines for the production of natural, depleted, and enriched uranium metal in an underground laboratory at the Esfahan Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF). Without obvious civilian applications, metallic uranium has been a traditional indicator of an interest in metal components for weapons. The interest is not new, since Iran had fiddled with uranium metal hemispheres already in the eighties and nineties. This is a serious matter by itself. But why the provocation of setting up that chemical laboratory in a cellar of the UCF building, in a shallow-underground location, vulnerable to surgical bombing, instead of one of the tunnel dug out around the Esfahan site or, again, deep underground at Natanz?

Will Israel take the bait? Technically, a single strike in Natanz or a double strike in Esfahan as well, would make some sense since key facilities and materials would in truth be destroyed. Never-theless, the overall Iranian nuclear potential would remain intact, since Iran has widely distributed its nuclear assets across the country. Within less than one year, Iran would have rebuilt its stock of low-enriched uranium and would have accelerated re-enrichment to higher levels, may be beyond 20%. Israel could well avoid the potential political consequences of a very limited military operation at Natanz or Esfahan - as was the case in Syria in October 2007 where a nuclear facility under construction, undeclared and illegal, was bombed out by Israeli planes without much protest on the part of the Syrian government and the international community.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bruno-pellaud/iran-invites-israeli-bomb_b_471174.html

[shergald]

1. Think tanks reran the scenario of an attack on Iran.

Sorry I lost the link. But they all concurred that for the US or Israel to attack Iran is suicidal, because both the US and Israel will pay dearly.

Take this advice:

Don't underestimate the Persians. And Iran is now a nuclear power. Get used to it.

[shergald]

4. War game shows how attacking Iran could backfire

By Warren P. Strobel | McClatchy Newspapers

"WASHINGTON — Here's a war game involving Iran, Israel and the U.S. that shows how unintended consequences can spin out of control:

With diplomacy failing and precious intelligence just received about two new secret Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel launches a pre-emptive strike against Tehran's nuclear complex. The strike is successful, wiping out six of Iran's key sites and setting back its suspected quest for a bomb by years.

But what happens next isn't pretty.

The U.S. president and his National Security Council try to keep the crisis from escalating. That sours U.S.-Israeli relations, already stressed by the fact that Israel didn't inform Washington in advance of the strike. The White House tries to open a channel for talks with Iran, but is rejected."

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/02/21/87061/war-game-shows-how-attacking-iran.html

And now we're told that Israel has drones that can reach Iran. Wonder where they came from? Well, for Americans, to avoid the gas lines, stock up now.

[no_hypocrisy]

2. Part of me sees this as Sadam Redux; Another part sees it as "Please don't throw me in the

briarpatch!"; and another part of me sees this as another Mad Hatter's Tea Party.

[shergald]

3. Glad to notice that Huffington Post is now acceptable as a major newspaper.

Huffington is probably the largest online newspaper, one which many use instead of the NYT or WashPo. I certainly do. On matters IP, bias in the latter news sources certainly makes places like HuffPo essential.

[grassfed]

5. not surprising, they invented Chess n/t