Hezbollah stockpiles 40,000 rockets near Israel border

[henank]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6739175.ece

According to Israeli, United Nations and Hezbollah officials, the Shia Muslim militia is stronger than it was in 2006 when it took on the Israeli army in a war that killed 1,191 Lebanese and 43 Israeli civilians.

Hezbollah has up to 40,000 rockets and is training its forces to use ground-to-ground missiles capable of hitting Tel Aviv, and anti-aircraft missiles that could challenge Israel’s dominance of the skies over Lebanon.

Brigadier-General Alon Friedman, the deputy head of the Israeli Northern Command, told The Times from his headquarters overlooking the Israeli-Lebanese border that the peace of the past three years could “explode at any minute”.

His concerns were due partly to threats from Hezbollah’s leadership. Last month Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, warned that if the southern suburbs of Beirut were bombed as they were in the last war, he would strike back against Tel Aviv, the largest Israeli city.

[JonQ]

1. Presumably for peaceful means only

[ProgressiveProfessor]

8. That and religious proselytizing

[floridablue]

2. I wonder how big of a bang they could get

By lobbing a few "Willie Pete" shells into the warehouses ? That could be some serious shock and awe moments. And think of all the good employment opportunities for the Syrian bombmakers to replace the inventory.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

5. Hezbollah learned lessons from Gaza.

In Gaza the Hamas organization was heavily penetrated by Israeli intelligence. Its why the initial strikes were so successful and killed many of Hamas cadre and destroyed much of their weapons storage.

Since then Hezbollah has been on internal witch hunts, publicly killing those they labeled as spies and rebuilding its internal security. To go along with it they have dispersed weapons, including rockets. For example there have been stories about how they are being stored on a onesy twoesy basis in home.

[bemildred]

3. General Friedman is just annoyed because there is nothing much he can do about it.

At least not at an acceptable expense. And that limits his freedom of action in other areas. You could summarize this by saying that Hezbollah has achieved a significant level of deterrence. A renewal of the 2006 conflict will be much more expensive.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

6. Actually there is and it may be announced soon.

The IDF has been working on a mini version of SDI to protect places like Siderot. Its nearing release.

Also if it comes to that, the IAF will mount a heavy CAP over the area. If a rocket is fired, it would be the last one from that location, and preemptive strikes would be used. They have clearly done that before and no reason that they would not do it again.

[bemildred]

10. The reason you have 40,000 is so that you can overwhelm any defense.

IIRC this is two or three times what was claimed before the 2nd Lebanon War. You cannot take out 40,000 at a go unless they enemy puts them in a convenient pile for you. They would fail as an offensive weapon, but Hezbollah is not in a position to invade anyone, to use them without provocation would just invite getting themselves clobbered. As a deterrent, they work fine, they can extract a price.

[shira]

13. 40,000 defensive rockets?

since when has Hezbollah, Hamas, Fatah, etc.. fought defensively?

[shaayecanaan]

15. Since when it was founded...

the precipitating event behind the foundation of Hezbollah was the Ashura celebrations of October 1983. An Israeli tank convoy found the streets full of people and decided to try and get through by lobbing a few tank shells around, which killed 6 people.

The Shia until that time were supportive of the Israelis. Ehud Barack stated that up until that incident they were welcomed in Shia villages with flowers and jasmine rice. However, when the Israelis failed to withdraw from Lebanon after the PLO retreated to Tunis, the Shia became increasingly concerned that the Israelis were intent on maintaining long-term control in Lebanon. The first Shia attacks on Israeli garrisons were so successful that Israel insisted they were due to accidents for days afterward.

Israel itself recognised that Hezbollah was entitled to attack its troops on Lebanese soil in the wake of the first Qana massacre in 1996, when US Secretary of State Warren Christopher formulated an agreement between Israel and Hezbollah which has since become known as the "Rules of the Game". The essential principles of the Rules are:-

1) Hezbollah is entitled to attack Israeli troops on Lebanese soil.

2) Hezbollah shall refrain from killing Israeli civilians.

3) Israel shall refrain from killing Lebanese civilians.

4) If Hezbollah breaks these rules, Israel may launch limited air strikes on Lebanon.

5) If Israel breaks these rules, Hezbollah may launch limited rocket strikes on Israel.

From 1996 to 2000, the Rules were in fact moderately successful in regulating the scope of the conflict.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

19. Have to love their defensive kidnappings and rocket attacks

[bemildred]

16. That's not what I said.

Sort of, but not quite exactly, the opposite of what I said.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

18. The rockets require equipment to launch...there are not 40,000 sets of that or surveyed sites

An example would be having a brick of .22LR ammunition and a single breaktop rifle. Sure you have 500 rounds, put you can only put one round at a time down range and slowly at that.

[bemildred]

23. So you think they have a shortage of launchers or something?

You think the General is just complaining as a matter of principle?

But don't let me interfere with your cheerful thoughts.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

25. Ground Support Equipment (GSE) is not issued 1 for 1

The launch rails are bulky, especially for the large rockets purported to be in inventory. However, they can be locally manufactured. Site surveys are also important. There has to be clear markings that fit with the launchers to make sure the rocket goes where its intended. This could be done in real time, but takes additional time, more equipment and skill. Then again, Hamas and Hezbollah tend not to worry about accuracy as long as it heads toward Israel. The launch electronics are really more the key. Its not like you light a fuse to launch the larger rockets.

As for the General, he does have a serious problem. While a concerted attack could be stopped over time, the first few salvos would get through before any kind of CAP could do effective suppression. That is why the IDF is building a mini SDI. However, regardless of its effectiveness, some will get through, which would be unacceptable to the Israelis if they landed deep in Israel. Also the counter battery fire would make opening air strikes of OCL look friendly (less precise, more intense, area munitions, and cluster bombs). The good news is, Lebanon, like Gaza is pretty well penetrated by Israeli intelligence and a mass action would probably be detected ahead of time.

[bemildred]

27. That was not the question.

"However, regardless of its effectiveness, some will get through, which would be unacceptable to the Israelis if they landed deep in Israel." That was my point.

It has been long understood that the correct response to superior firepower is dispersal. If this is understood, then the launchers and rockets will be dispersed, if possible they will be mobile, and the result will be that suppressing rocket fire will be a long and painful job. One has to assume some thought has been put into the matching of launchers with appropriate numbers of rockets, and that the lessons of the 2006 war have been studied on both sides and such improvements as suggest themselves implimented. There is no reason to assume it will be quick and painless, or that the outcome is largely assured. It is contrary to simple observation; that sort of thinking is what lead to the mess last time.

Nevertheless, there is also little reason to think that Hezbollah will initiate escalated combat operations, for them winning is little more than survival, and they are unlikely to put their existence at risk unless already under attack.

This whole situation reminds me of the way N. Korea uses artillery to impose a credible deterrent on S. Korea, another ugly situation.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

28. There have already been stories that they are dispusred in the homes of civilians

I think any large scale attacked would be shutdown within an hour or so. Once a CAP and UAVs are up, any site that launches would be hit in minutes. Given the backfire radars, previously identified coordinates would be stuck hard in the ensuing 4-8 hours. Again, if there were long range or deep strikes, I would expect the use of sub munitions and other area denial munitions, which means extensive civilian casualties.

Hezbollah is like Hamas, given to fits of pique and islamic machismo. I could see them lobbing a few over now and then. As long as they only use Grads and Kassams, that might not garner a larger response, though the IAF would then patrol the airspace to identify sites and try and kill the crews.

[bemildred]

29. Whatever you say, Sir, clearly it will just be a piece of cake like the last time. nt

[ProgressiveProfessor]

37. Piece of cake? Not at all. More like a blood bath greater in some respects than Gaza

Assuming that Hezbollah has the larger rockets as they have claimed, strikes will hit deep into Israel and get the populace which has a sizable anti war contingent seriously pissed. They may be willing to make Hezbollah pay a serious price and any hope that Syria has of getting the Golan back will be dead for another decade. Without a planning window, area munitions will be used with a massive increase in civilian casualties. A serious bloodbath indeed

[bemildred]

38. "a blood bath greater in some respects than Gaza"

That is what I think it would be too, why are you arguing with me? Do you think that's a good thing for Israel?

[ProgressiveProfessor]

42. No, but the continued existence of Hezbollah leads me to believe that something will happen

[bemildred]

44. Good guess. nt

[bemildred]

33. IDF reportedly training for pointed attack on Hezbollah

The Pentagon has learned of intensive Israel Defense Forces preparations for a pointed attack against Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon, the Saudi newspaper Al-Anba reported on Thursday.

A top American analyst told the Arabic-language press that the IDF has been training elite units to be ready in case an immediate attack was needed against Hezbollah missile-launching centers along the Litani River.

The Times of London reported this week that the Lebanon-based militant group has stockpiled 40,000 rockets near the border with Israel and is training its guerillas to use missiles capable of striking Tel Aviv. According to the report, militants are being trained in the use of both long-range, ground-to-ground missiles and anti-aircraft missiles against Israel. Israel, the United Nations and Hezbollah itself have all said that the milita is stronger today than it was during the Second Lebanon War.

While the northern front has been relatively quiet since the 2006 conflict, Israel Defense Forces Deputy GOC Northern Command Alon Friedman told The Times that the peace could "explode at any minute."

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1105745.html

[ProgressiveProfessor]

39. Under the circumstances, who would blame them, moreover it helps

with the head games being done to Hezbollah. From http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1103108.html

Senior IDF officers believe that Hezbollah has completely rebuilt its network of bunkers and arms stockpiles in south Lebanon, but has located them almost entirely inside Shi'ite villages rather than in open areas, as it did sometimes in the past. The warehouse explosion revealed this fact, and has prompted Hezbollah to worry that Israeli intelligence may know where its new bases are located.

[bemildred]

41. What do you want from me? I didn't blame anyone.

You can argue with me all you want, but I'm not going to defend anything I did not say.

If there is a point here that I want to make, it is that the 2006 war failed, at great cost, and there seems little reason to think another try will do better, or that the US will be as accommodating as it was last time in supporting a new effort.

[bemildred]

34. New IDF tanks to come equipped with missile defense system

The Armored Corps this week announced the first active tank defense system, "Windbreaker," is now operational.

Israel Defense Forces ground troops conducted a successful pilot of the system last week in conjunction with the defense contractors who developed it, in front of international military observers.

The Windbreaker tracks incoming anti-tank missiles and launches a small rocket to destroy them a few dozen meters from the tank itself. The rocket system was purchased after the Second Lebanon War, when dozens of IDF tanks were damaged by Hezbollah anti-tank missiles. All new Merkava tanks are expected to be equipped with the system by the end of 2010.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1106005.html

[ProgressiveProfessor]

40. The IDF is not the only nation going that way

ERA is now standard as are laser warning devices. This is a natural evolution. Note that these are for AT missiles, not artillery rockets.

The role of international military observers is so the Israel can sell them abroad. 80%+ of military products built in Israel are for export. Its how they fund their own defense forces.

[bemildred]

43. While I understand the motive, I think it is a fruitless enterprise.

The "defense" is very expensive, and vulnerable to obvious countermeasures.

[parkia00]

4. Ah yeah?

Enemies tend to keep stockpiles of weapons on the border which might flare up. It's logical no? I bet you the IDF stockpile weapons too! Not sure, don't have proof but I think they do. Worried that Hezbollah might fire rockets into Tel Aviv if Israel bombs southern suburbs again? Then don't start bombing the southern suburds.

[henank]

7. One "small" difference

Hezbollah are in violation of Security Council resolution 1701 by keeping weapons along the border. Israel is not violating the resolution.

[parkia00]

9. Yes, BUT...

Hezbollah isn't the only one ignoring UN resolutions when it's suits them to do so isn't it? How many has Israel ignored? All of a sudden one UN resolution becomes so important and Hezbollah must follow them while others are... not so important? You demand one group to follow UN resolutions while the other can ignore it until the cows come home? Fair? Or cherry picking?

[ShadesOfGrey]

11. Well said!

Israel started ignoring the UN the day after the UN created it. Ingrates!!!

[henank]

12. Hyperbole

and nonsense.

[parkia00]

22. It is not true?

Israel ignoring UN resolutions when it fits them is not true? Which is hyperbole and which is nonsense? And which is an attempt to end the topic when faced with question you cannot bring yourself to answer by simply pushing it away with a swipe of your hand and making an off hand comment that has no substance?

[sabbat hunter]

35. Hizbollah

is an illegally armed milita/terror group. One that was supposed to have been stopped from re-arming by the Lebanese army So not only is Hizbollah in violation of UN resolutions, so is the government of Lebanon.


All the while the UN is there in Lebanon, and just watches Hizbollah re-arm.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

21. ...wow. Just wow.

Does your enthusiasm for 1701 extend to other UN resolutions?

[Alamuti Lotus]

31. Israel violates this resolution DAILY

...

[proteus_lives]

14. Sounds like the Israeli commando forces have a job to do.

Hopefully there will be an "accidental" explosion in the near future.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

20. As I said in post #5, it will be harder to do since they have dramatically increased their paranoia

after what the IDF did to Hamas in Gaza.

I am surprised that so many of the top Hezbollah leadership especially Nasrallah have not been killed.

[IndianaGreen]

17. Obviously they are intended for an upcoming Fourth of July celebration

O! say can you see by the dawn's early light
What so proudly we hailed at the twilight's last gleaming?
Whose broad stripes and bright stars through the perilous fight,
O'er the ramparts we watched were so gallantly streaming?

And the rockets' red glare, the bombs bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there.
O! say does that star-spangled banner yet wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave?

[sabbat hunter]

24. Isn't the UN

and Lebanon's army supposed to stop such things?

[ProgressiveProfessor]

26. UNIFIL is a bad joke at best, collaborators at worst

[Alamuti Lotus]

32. The Lebanese army specializes in serving tea to invading armies

and further, UNIFIL has done little to protect Lebanon from Israeli aggressions; on that note, I will agree on their general ineffectiveness. Perhaps a demilitarized corridor should be established on the other side of the border, with programs in place to prevent the near-daily illegal air force aggressions and maneuvers taking place.

[Alamuti Lotus]

30. Fantastic, deterrence can have a powerful effect

It is true that the Resistance has become even stronger than before, however I was not aware that it was to this extent. On the political front, their position with the government is also stronger; even seemingly-natural sectarian enemies are clamboring for their alliances.

The Israeli government and military has never shown squeemishness about bombing any inch of Lebanese territory, whether it was a civilian location or not (more of the former than the latter, in fact). Let them fear the knowledge that such actions may carry consequences along with them.

[Taitertots]

36. More reason for Israel to invade now

Instead of waiting while they rearm themselves for the next attack against Israel.