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Poll: 58% of Israeli Jews back two-state solution

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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-14-09 01:56 PM
Original message
Poll: 58% of Israeli Jews back two-state solution
Survey conducted ahead of Netanyahu's visit to Washington shows secular, religious Israeli Jews split over US-backed plan to establish an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3715759,00.html

<snip>

"Some 58% of Israel's Jewish public backs the "two states for two peoples" solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a Smith Institute poll commissioned by Ynet revealed.

The results are based on a representative sample of 500 respondents from the adult Israeli population.

According to the poll, which was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's scheduled trip to Washington, 37% of Israeli Jews are opposed to the two-state solution, while five percent of those surveyed had no opinion on the matter.

US President Barack Obama has expressed his support for the two-state plan on a number of occasions since entering office in January.

The poll further revealed that 70% of Israel's religious population, including the ultra-Orthodox, is opposed to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, while 73% of the country's secular Jews support it."




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mikelgb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-14-09 01:57 PM
Response to Original message
1. yay for fundies
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LeftishBrit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-14-09 02:01 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Fortunately they're a minority in Israel
Glad to know that a comfortable - though not overwhelming - majority are for two states. Maybe they'll get there yet!
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Nicholas D Wolfwood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-14-09 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Now, if only they would elect politicians that reflect this.
There has always seemed to be a very, very wide gap between public opinion polls of Israelis and the results of their elections. I really couldn't tell you if that's an artifact of their political system or something else.
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LeftishBrit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-14-09 04:04 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. I think a lot of it is indeed due to the electoral system there
An extreme first-past-the-post system (UK) and an extreme pure-PR system (Israel) can achieve remarkably similar results in producing unrepresentative governments. In Israel, small RW parties often have disproportionate influence on the structure and policies of the government.
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RaleighNCDUer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-14-09 02:15 PM
Response to Original message
3. It's too bad they can't manage to elect a government that
reflects their views.
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azurnoir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-14-09 02:58 PM
Response to Original message
5. I found this interesting
Edited on Thu May-14-09 02:58 PM by azurnoir
Additionally, some 53% of Israeli Jews up to the age of 30 are against the two-state solution, while 46% of them are in favor of it; 63% of Israeli Jews over the age of 50 also support the establishment of a Palestinian state, while only 32% oppose the US-backed solution.

The population of Israel is considered relatively “young”: In Israel, the proportion of
children aged 0-14 is 28%, compared with an average of 17% in other Western countries. In
the older age groups (aged 65+), the gaps are smaller (about 10% of the Israeli population,
compared with an average of about 15% in other Western countries).


http://www.cbs.gov.il/hodaot2006n/01_06_252e.pdf

I must wonder what the age distribution of the respondents was

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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-14-09 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #5
7.  the trend among young Israelis that is what is most disturbing
Edited on Thu May-14-09 06:26 PM by Douglas Carpenter
this was from an April poll of high school students across Israel:

"Yisrael Beiteinu came in first with 19.76 percent of the vote, followed closely by Likud with 19.5 percent, Labor with 15.85 percent, Kadima with 14.11 percent and Yisrael Hazaka (Strong Israel) with 9.12 percent. Meretz got the lowest percentage of votes, just 2.9 percent, and not a single vote was cast for an Arab party."
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1061910.html
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azurnoir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-15-09 01:09 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. yes it is disturbing to say the least
Edited on Fri May-15-09 01:11 AM by azurnoir
and again I find myself wondering if that is the result at least in part in part of what is described here I have posted this before but it seems so fitting

When I grew up near Tel Aviv in the 1970s, Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza were an indispensable part of the environment. Many of them worked in construction sites, laboring to turn my hometown's strawberry fields into a modern suburb. Others stood every morning in line at the town's highway intersection -- a common sight in Israeli cities then -- waiting for their chance to get a day job. Luckier Palestinians got jobs filling gas at service stations, washing dishes in restaurants and bars, or fixing cars. They served Israeli customers, and were even given Hebrew aliases by their employers. Thus, Ghazi became "Roni" and Mustafa turned into "Moti." Despite a class system problematic in its own right, many of these workers experienced at least a measure of integration.

"The Arabs," as they were called then, manned our country's service sector for two decades after Israel occupied the West Bank and Gaza in June 1967. But lacking civil or political rights, this underclass rebelled in December 1987. Termed the first intifada, the Palestinian uprising abruptly changed Israel's reality. Palestinian workers disappeared from sight, first the young ones, then the elders.

Born a few months after the outbreak of the first intifada, my daughter grew up in a very different environment than I did. She has never met a Palestinian from the West Bank or Gaza. Now 19, she has seen our Palestinian neighbors only on TV, and views them as aliens. She is much more familiar with American brand names and sitcom characters than with the people who live 15 miles east of her Tel Aviv home.

My daughter is far from alone in her experience. Today's mainstream Israelis living comfortably in the Tel Aviv area hardly ever cross the "Green Line" separating Israel from the West Bank. In pre-intifada times, many Israelis traveled the short distance up the hills to buy cheap furniture at Bidyah or get their cars fixed in low-cost workshops in Jenin. Not anymore. Since the much bloodier second intifada erupted in September 2000, all Palestinian towns and villages are legally off-limits to Israelis. Moreover, few Israelis would even visit the controversial Israeli settlements on the hilltops. (Conversely, their religious, highly ideological inhabitants would feel out of place in Tel Aviv, just like Palestinians would.) Now, the only reason to go to Nablus or Ramallah, or to one of the Israeli settlements around them, would be for military duty. Otherwise, entering these towns is a life-threatening prospect for Israelis.


http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/11/26/two_state/index.html

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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-15-09 03:35 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. for sure that is a major part of it - perhaps the single leading cause
Edited on Fri May-15-09 03:48 AM by Douglas Carpenter
I would also guess that many older generation Israelis were motivated by a certain amount of Labour-Zionist socialist idealism - a value that has, from what I gather, completely dissipated among the younger generation of Israelis.

Some other major factors were laid out very convincingly in an article by John Mearsheimer in his December 12, 2008 article, The Changing Face of Israel. This article is actually a book review which contains a demographic analysis done of Israel by former Knesset Speaker, Avraham Burg, The Holocaust Is Over; We Must Rise From its Ashes
Amazon link: http://www.amazon.com/Holocaust-Over-Must-Rise-Ashes/dp/0230607527/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1242374251&sr=1-1

I cannot recommend this article by Dr. Mearsheimer strong enough for anyone interested in the conflict - regardless their point of view. I think Mr. Burg's book would be quite worthwhile also, I'll have to order it.

From Dr. Mearsheimer's article:



The Changing Face of Israel


By John Mearsheimer - December 12, 2008

link:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/12/12/the_changing_face_of_israel

snip: There were only a tiny number of ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel when the state was founded in 1948. In fact, the Haredi were deeply opposed to Zionism, which they saw as an affront to Jewish tradition. However, their numbers have been growing by leaps and bounds in recent years, as has their share of the Israeli population. The reason is simple: on average, each Haredi woman has 7.6 children, which is roughly triple the rate for the overall Israeli Jewish population. Thus, the Forward reported in August 2007 that : "In the 15 years from 1992 to 2007, the proportion of Jewish children attending state-secular elementary schools dropped to 55% of the total from 67%; in 2012 it is projected to fall to 51%. The percentage attending Haredi schools, meanwhile, went from 12.4% in 1992 to 26.7% in 2007 and a projected 31% in 2012."

The rapid growth of the ultra-Orthodox community has significant consequences for Israel, because only 30 percent of Haredi men work and very few of them serve in the military. More generally, it means that they are likely to play a major role in running Israel in the decades ahead. It is worth noting that in the recent mayoral race in Jerusalem, the ultra-Orthodox candidate, Meir Porush, said that, "In another fifteen years there will not be a secular mayor in any city in Israel, except for perhaps in some far-flung village." He was exaggerating for sure, but his comment captures where Israel is headed, and why Burg worries about rabbis running the state.

The second trend is the large number of Israelis who have emigrated to North America and Europe, and are unlikely to return home. According to most estimates, there are roughly 5.3 million Israeli Jews and 5.2 million Palestinians living in Greater Israel. There are also about 300,000 individuals living in Israel who the Central Bureau of Statistics defines as "others." Most are family members of Jewish immigrants or individuals who have Jewish ancestors, but not a Jewish mother, and therefore are not categorized as Jews by the Israeli government. If one counts these "others" as Jews, then there are 5.6 million Israeli Jews, not 5.3 million. Let's do that, which means that there are 5.6 million Israeli Jews and 5.2 million Palestinians. However, not all of those Jews live in Israel anymore. It is difficult to get firm numbers on how many Israelis live abroad, because the government stopped publishing those numbers in the early 1970s. Based on various articles on the subject and conversations I had when I was in Israel this past June, it seems safe to assume that at least 750,000 Israelis live outside its borders. This means that there are now fewer Jews than Palestinians living in Greater Israel, even if you count the 300,000 "others" as Jews.

Furthermore, there is considerable evidence that a substantial number of Israeli Jews would like to leave Israel if they could. In an article that just appeared in the National Interest, John Mueller and Ian Lustick report that "a recent survey indicates that only 69 percent of Jewish Israelis say they want to stay in the country, and a 2007 poll finds that one-quarter of Israelis are considering leaving, including almost half of all young people. They go on to report that, "in another survey, 44 percent of Israelis say they would be ready to leave if they could find a better standard of living elsewhere. Over 100,000 Israelis have acquired European passports."* I would bet that most of those Israelis who have opted to live in the Diaspora are secular and politically moderate, at least in the Israeli context. It is also worth noting that there has been limited immigration into Israel since the early 1990s, and in some years, the emigrants outnumber the immigrants.

This data seems to confirm Burg's point that Israeli society is becoming more religious and less secular, and that the political center of gravity is much further to the right than it used to be. I can think of five possible implications of this evolving situation.

First, these trends will surely make it less likely that Israel will leave the West Bank and allow the Palestinians to have a viable state of their own. Greater Israel is going to be a fact of life, if it already isn't.

Second, it seems clear that the Jews are going to badly outnumbered by the Palestinians in Greater Israel. The one key demographic fact that I did not include above is that the average Palestinian woman has approximately 4.6 children, while the Israeli figure is about 2.6 children. Greater Israel will be an apartheid state.

Third, young Israelis who think like Burg are likely to become increasingly uncomfortable living in Israel, and find the idea of living in Europe or North America increasingly attractive. And Europe, which will be facing wicked demographic problems down the road, is likely to welcome - if not try to attract - those Israelis who want to immigrate there.

Fourth, it is likely to be increasingly difficult for pro-Israel forces in the United States to make the case that Washington should maintain its "special relationship" with Israel, because the two countries have "common values." There is not much similarity in terms of core values between the emerging Israel and contemporary America.

Fifth, it also seems apparent that it is going to be increasingly difficult for American Jews, especially younger ones, to identify with Israel and feel a deep attachment to it, which is essential for maintaining the special relationship.

In sum, Israel is in trouble, which is why Americans of all persuasions - especially those who purport to be Israel's friends - should read Burg's important book and start talking about it.

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/12/12/the_changing_face_of_israel/


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Donald Ian Rankin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-14-09 06:36 PM
Response to Original message
8. What two states, though?
Even among those Israelis who nominally support the establishment of a Palestinian "state", very few support making the territorial concessions necessary to make such a state viable.

And quite a lot view "Israel and Jordan" as a two-state solution...
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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-14-09 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. that is what I wonder too
Edited on Thu May-14-09 06:48 PM by Douglas Carpenter
What percent support a genuinely sovereign, independent contiguous and viable state based on the 1967 border with unimpeded movement and unimpeded access to a sovereign Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem?

Everyone who knows anything whatsoever about the conflict knows that is the absolute minimum requirement. What percentage of Israelis support that? Anything less is expo facto opposition to the two-state solution and everyone knows that.

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proteus_lives Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-14-09 08:24 PM
Response to Original message
10. Good.
The two-state solution is the way to peace. It's the details that's gonna get everyone killed....
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