Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Talks Deadlocked

[tekisui]

Source: Deutsche Welle

Israeli officials meeting in Cairo to discuss a French-Egyptian ceasefire proposal have ended the talks without reaching any results. The plan, proposed by Egyptian President Hosny Mubarak and French President Nicolas Sarkozy calls for a cessation of violence and allowing aid to reach civilians. It also proposed a discussion on ending Israel's blockade on Gaza. Meanwhile France and Germany have said they will work together to obtain security guarantees for Israel. Speaking at a joint news conference in Paris, Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Sarkozy said they were ready to undertake a joint initiative to help peace in the Middle East.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/function/0,,12215_cid_3931628,00.html?maca=en-en_nr-1893-xml-atom

[bemildred]

1. This story doesn't seem to say why the talks are deadlocked.

That seems like an important matter to me.

[tekisui]

2. I know. I haven't found anything else on it, yet.

[The Magistrate]

7. Earlier Reports, Sir

Suggested the proposal for opening the border crossings envisioned joint Israeli/Palestinain contingents, with the Palestinian contingent consisting of Fatah men. That could be one stumbling block.

[bemildred]

9. I have seen several variations on that, depending on the source.

Some with Hamas present, some not. It is entirely possible that the real reasons are hidden, as far as that goes. I was just annoyed that the story had nothing to say about it. They might as well say "negotiations continue" as "talks deadlocked" if no reasons are given. Deadlock always implies there is something blocking the way.

There are also mentions of weapons interdiction, monitors for weapons interdiction, and so on, and it is clear that Egypt wants to remain in splendid isolation from Gaza and it's problems.

[The Magistrate]

11. Viewed Coldly, Sir

One of the few promising elements of this ghastly business is the apparent isolation of Hamas in it. The keystone of Arab Palestinian strategy (though 'hopes' might be a better word) has always been the rallying of the entirety of the Arab Nation behind its cause. The religiousity of Hamas leadership may, of course, blind it to rational calculation of odds and balances, but if the idea that all Arabs may eventually be moved to effective support were discarded, matters might clear up sooner, and a bit more cleanly.

[bemildred]

12. Probably ought to unite the Palestinians before we worry about uniting the Arabs again Sir.

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Hamas officials said that as of Friday they would not recognize Abbas's status as president of the PA.

But they also made it clear that they would not demand his resignation for now "because of the war" in the Gaza Strip.

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Mustapha Barghouti, a former presidential candidate, said it was "irrational that Hamas and Fatah were continuing to fight each other while our people are being massacred."

"This is not the right time and place to talk about Abbas's presidency. It doesn't really matter who leads the Palestinians. It's much more important that we are reunited," Barghouti said.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1231424896056&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[The Magistrate]

14. True Enough, Sir

But there has always been a 'try to run before learning to walk' air about political developments on that side of the equation here. Possession of a 'glorious past' can be a tremendous handicap....

[bemildred]

13. There is this:

Serious differences of opinion between Syria and Egypt are making the process of reaching a Gaza cease-fire agreement difficult. Syria has advised Hamas not to accept Egypt's cease-fire proposal, arguing it is too vague, particularly regarding the issue of Israel's withdrawal from the Strip.

In Syria's opinion, which is coordinated with Iran, the Egyptian proposal may undermine Hamas' position in the Gaza Strip and present Israel with an advantage.

Hamas is demanding a return to the terms of the cease-fire that were reached last June, which bar Israel from attacking the Gaza Strip and demand that the calm be applied in the West Bank after six months. By this, Hamas would show that Israel had not achieved any political gains through its Gaza operation.

The Egyptian initiative, on the other hand, calls for a cease-fire that would take effect within 48-72 hours and would open border crossings to allow humanitarian aid into the Strip.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1054128.html

[Lithos]

15. This relates to the split in Hamas leadership

With the militants behind Mashaal who is controlled by Syria/Iran while the civilian group is talking to Egypt.

I hope the civilian group success to the matter, but I believe the militants are in full control now.

L-

[The Magistrate]

17. My Rule Of Thumb, Sir, Is That The Men With Guns Rule

What men without guns say is not worth hearing in this sort of situation.

[Lithos]

19. That is very true

And their blood is up and they've got something to "prove".

[The Magistrate]

16. This Part Is Especially Interesting, Sir

"Syria has urged Hamas to demand that the first stage of a deal include the opening of the Rafah border crossing, a demand that Egypt rejects.

"The Egyptians are only willing to open the crossing on the basis of the terms of a 2005 agreement, which requires the presence of Palestinian Authority officials, European Union observers and Israeli cameras.

"Egypt believes that the crossings should be opened at this stage to usher in humanitarian aid.

"Syria maintains that the opening of the crossings should not be conditioned on the return of PA officials, and has gone so far as to criticize Egypt for failing to open the Rafah crossing at the Egyptian border."

The close relations of Iran and Syria are a genuinely odd feature of the situation at present. A shared minority status may be part of it, Hassad's family being Alawite, a very tiny group, and the Iranians being Shia, but then there is the resolute sceularism of the Ba'athist yoked to the hyper religiousity of the Islamic Republic, which cannot really be too comfortable.

[bemildred]

18. Well then, consider this:

Shi'ites and Sunnis find common cause

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New alliance?

The Gaza conflict, in which Israel is fighting Iranian-backed Hamas, a Sunni Palestinian Islamist group, highlights this new alliance, the seeds of which were sown by Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, analysts say. That revolt's ecumenical vision for Islamism was heard in Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's famous slogan, "Neither East nor West, But Islam!" That call to arms is now led by Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

While Tehran's hopes of leading all Islamic radicals regardless of sect dimmed during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, Shi'ite-dominated Iran has enjoyed a new lease on life in the post-Saddam Hussein Middle East. Shi'ites control the government in Iraq. And Ahmadinejad has used that favorable hand of cards to up the ante across the region, helping to empower Shi'ite Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as Sunni Hamas.

In 2005, Ahmadinejad shocked the West when he said Israel should be "wiped off the map". But in the Muslim world, such populism worked from the Iranian leader's perspective. "If the Palestinian cause is the beating heart of the Middle East and of Muslim Arabs," says Saudi author Yamani, "then the Iranians Saudi Arabia and Egypt and other Arab regimes as its champion."

As Sunni Hamas takes on the Israeli army, its Shi'ite Iranian backers invariably soak up praise from Muslims everywhere - even as Tehran's clerical regime remains deeply unpopular in many quarters. Syrians protested Israel's Gaza ground offensive in Damascus on January 5.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KA09Ak02.html

That could explain a certain testiness between Damascus and Cairo.

Edit: but you are correct that it is Syria's role here that is interesting. They seem to be asserting themselves in a way that I don't remember seeing before.

[bemildred]

3. ANALYSIS / Hamas seeks Gaza war of attrition ending in IDF pullout

Ignore the headline.

---

Five days into the ground component of the operation, it is becoming apparent that Hamas has not been defeated. Its men, most of whom had disappeared from sight when the IDF troops entered, are beginning to emerge from their hideouts to plague the forces' rear flanks.

The IDF is entering one of the offensive's most dangerous phases. Staying on the ground without progressing creates targets for the enemy to hit. Hamas' intransigence seems to stem at least in part from the hope that if they draw enough Israeli blood over the following days through a series of consecutive clashes, Israeli public opinion will turn and force the government to order the military to pull out without reaching an agreement.

---

As for the various mediators, they are having some difficulty understanding what Israel wants to achieve. The Israeli leadership is split on this issue. As things stood Thursday, Olmert was in support of broadening the operation and reaching a cease-fire at a later stage. Barak is seeking to reach bring about a quick resolution by reaching an agreement.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, in turn, is inclined to support an immediate pullout from Gaza without consolidating an agreement with Hamas, relying on the vivid threat of an Israeli reentry in case of renewed rocket fire for security stability.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1054144.html

[bemildred]

4. Three IDF soldiers killed in fighting in Gaza Strip

Three Israeli soldiers were killed in the Gaza Strip yesterday as rockets continued to fall on Israel, and for the first time since the fighting began 13 days ago also fell in northern Israel.

Meanwhile, as fighting raged in the south, Israeli, Egyptian and other foreign diplomats sought to negotiate a formula for bringing the fighting to an end.

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Palestinians in the Gaza Strip fired at least 25 rockets and mortar shells at the western Negev on Thursday afternoon, injuring four people.

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The IDF ceased offensive fire again yesterday afternoon, enabling humanitarian aid to be brought into the Strip. Hamas did not stop firing during the three-hour hiatus in Israeli attacks.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1053805.html

[Arrowhead2k1]

5. Israel only wants to appear like their working towards a ceasefire under pressure from the IC.

However, they've been planning and have been committed to taking this war all the way for quite some time.

[Alamuti Lotus]

6. What really is there to talk about?

The invaders are shooting at the UN and Red Cross aid workers, medics and ambulances, herding large families into houses and then demolishing them, preventing wounded from receiving treatment, all the while blaming the dead for not rolling over quickly enough -- is this really an entity that can or should be negotiated with? There should be talk of executions and sanctions against the leaders of this crime, not "guarantees" in reward for their continued election campaign activities. Legitimizing this unfolding crime with concessions would be obscene! (which is why I fully expect it)

[Barack_America]

8. The resolution passed the UN Security Council

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=124x242354

[bemildred]

10. Yes, but that is empty gum-flapping.

These are presumably actual negotiations about an agreement to end hostilities, however tortured the mechanism used because neither party wants to give "credibility" to the other.