Abbas aide: Palestinian elections will be in April whether Hamas agrees or not

[oberliner]

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas plans to hold presidential and
parliamentary elections in April despite opposition from Hamas rivals who run the Gaza Strip, a senior aide said on Tuesday.

"The call for elections will be early January," said Yasser Abed Rabbo. "The elections will be held three months after."

Hamas, which seized the Gaza Strip last year after routing Fatah forces loyal to Abbas, opposes holding a parliamentary election in 2009. It could lose support owing to worsening economic conditions in Gaza.

Speaking to reporters in the West Bank city of Ramallah on Tuesday, Abbas said: "They (Hamas) have to understand that at the end of the day there will be elections."

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1040913.html

[bemildred]

1. I thought the PA was going to collapse?

You just don't know who to believe. It's like Russia and Georgia during their little spat.

[azurnoir]

3. Was that collapse or be collapsed I" m unclear n/t

[bemildred]

5. I was refering to this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=124x225050
:hi:

[azurnoir]

6. So was I

referring to that thread that is:hi:

[bemildred]

7. I reckon the puppet will work as long as the hand stays inside.

I do find that Maan news, while sometimes interesting, is not reliable. But then I don't think the PA itself is reliable either, or much of anyone else on either "side", and I doubt that Abbas can force elections, or that if he does manage it they will have any useful effect for him. Bush forced elections and has been trying to undo the result ever since. Unless you genuinely believe in rule of the popular will, elections are a risky business.

[Kurska]

2. How in the world do they plan to collect votes in gaza?

With a openly hostile local government? Short of some sort of massive public pressure on hamas I just don't see these elections happening. Abbass is playing his trump card though, if hamas rejects elections he has a defendable mandate to stay on for as long as he wants, or atleast untill hamas starts calling for elections.

[azurnoir]

4. That would be IMO

the "wet dream" of the Israeli rightwing and its supporters come true, the so called three state solution with a forever dived and immeasurably weakened Palestinian people.

[Kurska]

8. Whats wrong with a three state solution?

Gaza can be a international pariah for as long as it wants. At this point the west bank has no control over that. If the west bank and the PA is willing to play ball why shouldn't israel start the game? Peace talks between The PA and Israel can continue and maybe if broken from the gaza issue, make real progress.

Gaza can drag it's feet all it wants, why hold up the talks for their sake?

[bemildred]

9. What's wrong with eternal war?

Israel is a small country, surrounded by Arabs, many of whom hate it, and with a sugar-daddy that is broke and has his own problems. This is not a recipe for a stable future. Whatever hopes Israel has depend on some sort of acceptance from their neighbors, which depends on some sort of acceptance from the Palestinians littered about the landscape, which depends on them having some sort of useful and attractive options in life. Delusional propaganda is not a plan for a successful future.

[Kurska]

10. What are you talking about?

All I'm saying is if the PA will talk and hamas won't it's almost inevitable that the state of the west bank will come to be and the gaza one won't. If we keep down this path the west bank becomes a palestinian state, israel is still the jewish state and gaza continues to be the failed pseudo that it is.

If gaza won't talk there is going to be 3 states, 2 prosperous and one failed.

Israel needs to make peace, I bet even bibi would agree with that. It can't, however, make peace with a gaza that won't talk to it.

[bemildred]

11. Well, Gaza will talk to it.

But if that is not in your repertoire of ideas, than I don't know where to go with it. Hamas has always been willing to talk, it is the Israeli government that is not willing to talk, lest it give legitimacy to Hamas, which does not really need the Israeli government to give it legitimacy, but whatever. Hamas is also willing to talk to the PA, but not on condition of giving up the electoral victory they won fair and square, so not on terms of admitting their own political illegitimacy. But what the fuck do you think "Gaza" wants but the services that it depends on Israel to provide? Gaza's dependency on Israel is not something that Gazans democratically choose, it was forced on them during the period when Israel was trying to colonize it (i.e. before the Gaza "withdrawal".)

[Kurska]

12. I think you've proven my point

Israel doesn't want to talk to hamas until they are recognized and the hamas of today will never do this. Hamas is willing to talk seriously to The PA, but only on the grounds they are eventually or partially restored to power circa the previous election ( Something that the PA has no interest in doing, even from the most diplomatic standpoint, why give up power to a rival whose previous mandate has clearly run it's course, even for a moment?).

Hamas's willingness to talk is entirely based on demands that neither the PA or Israel sees benefits in accepting. Nor their future foreseeable leaders, Abbas just wants a mandate that he will get (even if he has to force the election) and not even labor would make the first move toward hamas.

Essentially, if Israel and the PA are the only ones talking, they are the only ones who are going to work out some sort of peace deal, one that in any close time line couldn't contain hamas nor gaza. So any peace deal possible at this point would infact create 3 states, one israeli, one palestinian and one Gazan-Hamas enclave.

[bemildred]

14. And what source of legitimacy is there, if not the "previous election"?

But you think what you like, I know you will anyway.

[Kurska]

15. legitimacy isn't the issue

The PA isn't going to give up power to hamas on the virtue of the legitimacy of elections held in a vastly different political climate then the current one. Nor do I think the PA would hand over the west bank to hamas even if the hamas mandate was still undeniable.

So hamas's demands are going to go unanswered with anything but a new election and if they don't change they will indeed be left out of any future peace talks.

Simply put, hamas is either going to blink or be excluded, it won't get what it wants either way.

[bemildred]

16. Well I started out with realpolitick, and you gave me legitimacy and elections

and all that rot, "Hamas won't talk to Israel", "what are you talking about", now you want to go back to realpolitick. Bah. Realpolitick is the war will continue while "legitimacy isn't the issue", and Israel is ever so slowly losing the war. Compare the situation now with that existing before Sharon put an end to Oslo. If you think this now is better, enjoy the show.

[Kurska]

17. Where did I stray from Realpolitik?

The Realpolitik of the situation is israel needs to make peace eventually, probably soon. The ground, atleast in the west bank, Is fertile for it and Abbass may just be the man livni and maybe by some miracle Netanyahu could work with. If hamas wants in on that negotiation ( and the future state of palestine) they need to bury their hatchet quickly, because I just don't see the process waiting for them.

Especially with elections that might shut them out of the government coming up.

[bemildred]

18. Have a nice day.

Reality does not need me to defend it, and if I'm wrong, arguing with you will not fix it. It's all there in this sub-thread, read it or not.

[Kurska]

19. Agreed, the reality of the situation will be made clear

No need to discuss this further

[azurnoir]

20. Ah but there is a problem

as part of the so called peace negotiations Israel added the caveat that Hamas had to removed from power prior to any settlement, making any settlement or solution of any sort near impossible, just more status quo with expanding settlement activity, making a solution of any kind even more difficult.

[ProgressiveMuslim]

13. Zahhar: Abbas cannot call elections without PLC approval

Date: 24 / 11 / 2008 Time: 12:48
Gaza – Ma’an – Senior Hamas leader, Mahmoud Zahhar on Monday said that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas cannot call early parliamentary elections without the approval of the Hamas-controlled Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC).

At a press conference in his private home in Gaza, Zahhar responded to Abbas’ announcement on Sunday that he would call parliamentary and presidential elections in early 2009 if reconciliation talks between Hamas and Fatah fail.

“This indicates that president Abbas is facing a serious political crisis and is trying to find a way out,” Zahhar said.

Zahhar added that early elections could not be called except by a majority of the PLC. “This will not take place as long as our leaders are in Israel’s custody and in the West Bank,” he said.

http://maannews.net/en/index.php?opr=ShowDetails&ID=33476