http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1057562596578&p=1057562248943Despite the declaration of a unilateral Palestinian ceasefire with Israel, and the frequent meetings between Israeli and Palestinian leaders, the "road map" for peace is in serious trouble. This is because the Bush administration, the plan's chief sponsor, has allowed Israel to reinterpret it so that it is gutted of the elements that offered hope of progress.
Because Israel depends on the US for the military and diplomatic backing that allows it to continue its occupation of Arab land indefinitely, the success or failure of the plan lies in Washington's willingness to confront an Israel that remains committed to the settlements and opposed to a genuinely independent Palestinian state.
Mr Bush welcomed Mr Sharon's "pledge to improve the humanitarian situation in the Palestinian areas and to begin removing unauthorised outposts immediately". In this way, Mr Bush conceded to Mr Sharon the right to decide what constitutes an "unauthorised" settlement - a distinction that does not exist in international law, which is clear that all the settlements are illegal. Israel has made a great display of removing a few outposts, mostly empty trailers and water tanks. In one case, The New York Times reported a scuffle between supposedly angry settlers and Israeli soldiers removing an outpost, which was interrupted so that the antagonists could share refreshments. As these sham efforts went on, Mr Sharon told his cabinet that the settlers could continue to build but should do so quietly. The result, according to Israel's Peace Now, a pressure group, is an increase in the number of outposts by at least two since Mr Bush made his statement.
Perhaps the only hope of saving the process lies with strong intervention by the European Union, which nominally co-authored the road map. Hitherto, the EU has acquiesced in US leadership, even when it has disagreed with US positions. And the US has been willing to ignore Europe on those rare occasions when it has asserted itself, as the Iraq crisis demonstrated. But, ironically, US difficulties in Iraq may give Europe the leverage to demand real action towards Palestinian freedom and Middle East peace as a prerequisite for help in extricating the Americans from their own unravelling occupation of Iraq.
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