Olmert explores, via third party, resumption of talks with Syria

[bemildred]

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is exploring, via a third party, the possibility of resuming peace talks with Syria.

A government source said there was no direct contact between Israeli and Syrian officials, "but a very serious assessment is underway."

What is being assessed is what Israel would get in return for pulling out of the Golan Heights, the nature of future bilateral relations and whether Syria would consider cutting its ties with Iran, Hezbollah and Palestinian terror organizations, Israel's main enemies in the region.

Olmert has recently referred to the possible resumption of talks with Syria in closed meetings. "The price is clear. There may be a debate on the payment terms, discounts etc. but the main question is what Israel would receive in return. Will it receive peace like with Egypt, peace like Britain and France have, or a deception: Give us the Golan, and all you'll get is an alliance between Syria and Iran and Hamas headquarters in Damascus," he said.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/865421.html

[mystikiel]

1. interesting to see how this goes...

The Israelis offered Syria the 1948 borders in 2000 and Assad knocked them back. The Syrians have made it abundantly clear they won't take anything less than the 1967 borders. There is only about 100 metres distance between them for the most part anyway so hopefully they can get somewhere this time.

I suppose the benefits for Israel are that it would no longer have to lord over 70,000 Syrian druze, and that it would normalise relations between Israel and the last of its neighbours not to have concluded a peace treaty with it, excluding Lebanon which is obviously only good for a punching bag anyway whenever Israel or Syria feel in the mood for it.

Syria has kept a quiet border with Israel for twenty years and there is really no reason why normalisation couldnt work in the sense that it already exists between Israel and Jordan and Egypt.

[bemildred]

2. I am skeptical.

At best current policy is contradictory. On the one hand strenuous efforts are being made to beat Assad over the head with the Hariri killing, on the other hand Olmert is making these conciliatory noises. The IDF meanwhile is sending out regular bulletins about the likelihood of a war with Syria this summer. I will be pleasantly surprised if this goes anywhere at all, let alone leads to an agreement with Syria. Pending something substantive, I think it is just hot air.

[bemildred]

3. Here is an example of that sort of thing:

IDF: No Gaza ground operation due to fear of war with Syria

The main reason the Israel Defense Forces is not currently recommending a major ground operation in the Gaza Strip is fear that war might break out with Syria this summer, IDF sources say.

This argument is rarely mentioned publicly, in part because intelligence analysts are still uncertain about whether Syrian President Bashar Assad intends to start a war or is merely trying to pressure Israel to resume peace talks. But Syria has clearly been preparing for the possibility of war, both through troop training and major arms deals.

As a result, the IDF believes it must also be ready for this possibility, and excessive activity on the southern front would undermine its capabilities in the north. From the army's perspective, Syria is the biggest threat; the Palestinian front is secondary.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/865763.html

[Douglas Carpenter]

4. there are approximately 20,000 Israeli settlers in the Golan Heights

With plans to double the number to 40,000. It would take a fair amount of political will to change that a agenda and even more to move the settlers. It's not impossible, but it would be very difficult.



From Washington Post:

Golan Heights Land, Lifestyle Lure Settlers
Lebanon War Revives Dispute Over Territory

By Scott Wilson
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, October 30, 2006; Page A01

link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/29/AR2006102900926.html

snip:"The pace has picked up in recent years. Now, for the first time, the number of Jewish settlers in Golan may soon exceed the nearly 20,000 Arab residents whose families remained here after the war. The milestone may have already been passed, Arab leaders concede, with 400 Jewish families moving into Golan each year.

Since the Lebanon war ended on Aug. 14, settler leaders have launched a $250,000 advertising campaign to attract young Israelis with the lure of free land and a lifestyle ethic that blends Marlboro Country, Napa Valley and the X Games. Their goal is to double the Jewish population in Golan to 40,000 within a decade through an appeal that emphasizes cowboy hats over skullcaps"

link to full article:

link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/29/AR2006102900926.html

.

[bemildred]

5. A good point.

I expect that was part of the idea in planting them there in the first place.

And that is another reason to think this is just blather.

[Douglas Carpenter]

6. actually the late Professor Tanya Reinhart of Tel Aviv University

documented in her books "Israel/Palestine" and "The RoadMap to Nowhere" that during the entire time the Barak government and earlier Israeli governments were talking publicly about returing the Golan and making a full peace treaty with Israel they were also making plans to expand the settlements in the Golan and quitely assuring the settlers that they were there to stay.

This is most unfortunate. I really do agree with former President Clinton that would take about 25 minutes to negotiate a full and permanent peace treaty between Syria and Israel. Such an event could defuse tension in the region quite dramatically. It could solve many of the troubles in Lebanon and decrease the Iranian threat significantly. Above all, and I am no apologist for Syria's Baathist regime, but they are Machiavellians and would welcome integration into the world economy. They need it desperately. But they cannot politically and they will not agree to giving up the Golan.

Israel/Palestine: How To End The War Of 1948 by Tanya Reinhart

Amazon link:

http://www.amazon.com/Israel-Palestine-1948-Open-Media/dp/1583226516/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2/102-8701952-4352901?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1180710276&sr=1-2

The Road Map to Nowhere by Tanya Reinhart

Amazon link:

http://www.amazon.com/Road-Map-Nowhere-Israel-Palestine/dp/1844670767/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/102-8701952-4352901?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1180710393&sr=1-1

.

[DemFromMem]

7. Don't get excited...

Reports are coming out that the Bush Administration wants to put the kabosh on Syrian-Israeli peace talks. That's about par for the course. The good part is that some of Olmert's advisors are telling him to ignore our peacemaker-in-chief.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/867020.html

The obvious conclusion is that the biggest obstacle to peace in the region is not Israeli, Palestinian or Syrian obstinance - it's us!