With all votes counted, Barak wins Labor primary round 1

[oberliner]

With 87 percent of votes counted, it became clear on Tuesday that former Prime Minister Ehud Barak had won the first round of the Labor primaries, and would face rival Ami Ayalon in a second round of polls to decide the party's new leader.

As the final votes were counted, the margin between Ayalon and Barak widened slightly, with Barak emerging as the leader.

Small margins separated the two candidates as during counting throughout the night, with the final result unclear until 87 percent had been processed. Barak finished with 34.2 percent of votes to Ayalon's 31.7 percent.

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/864052.html

Anyone have thoughts on who will win round two and what this will mean for Israelis and Palestinians?

[Fredda Weinberg]

1. You can't recognize a healthy political system?

No one died ... the tricks were dirty but the results were clean.

A retired general and a labor leader - from my long observation of Israeli politics, it's the most stable configuration.

So Kadima didn't ... sorry, it's a Hebrew joke. "Advancement" ... get it? Never mind.

Israelis are ready for the ongoing struggle ahead. Palestinians will eventually realize they're only keeping their opposition strong and surrender their tactics. May we see it in our lifetime.

[oberliner]

2. Would either Barak or Ayalon have a chance in a general election?

Could either of them defeat Netanyahu?

It's hard to tell from the USA whether the Israeli government is going to make a turn to the right or the left.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

3. I find it depressing that Barak is back.

That the Israeli labour party - arguably the one chance for peace in the Middle East - is considering re-electing the man who threw away the last realistic chance to end the conflict is not, in my view, a good sign at all.

Possibly he'd be more willing to make concessions this time round, but I don't know of any claims to that effect (although admittedly I probably wouldn't even if such existed, so that's not really evidence).

[oberliner]

4. I think the Peretz supporters may throw the run-off to Ayalon

Do you have any opinions about him?

It does seem like new blood is the way to go.

Have you read about the "People's Voice" initiative he helped craft with Sari Nusseibeh?

You can check it out here:

http://www.mifkad.org.il/en/

The main points of the Statement of Principles advanced by the People's Voice:

1. Two states for two nations.
2. Permanent borders based on the June 4, 1967 lines (with the possibility of equitable exchanges of territory for reasons of security, demography or territorial integrity).
3. Jerusalem is to be an open city and the capital of both states. Arab neighbourhoods will be under Palestinian sovereignty, Jewish neighbourhoods under Israel. There will be no political sovereignty over the Temple Mount / Haram al Sherif.
4. Palestinian refugees will be allowed to return to the territories of the Palestinian state only, Jews to the territories of Israel. An international fund will be established for the compensation and rehabilitation of Palestinian refugees.
5. The Palestinian state will be demilitarised.
6. Upon implementation of the Statement of Principles, when a peace accord is signed, the claims of both sides shall terminate and conflict end.

[Douglas Carpenter]

5. I have to admit, Mr. Ayalon sounds shockingly reasonable

Especially considering that he is a former Admiral and former Director of Shin Bet. But sometimes military types are pragmatist. And he does seem to actually at least somewhat understand the dynamics working in Palestinian society>

I was just reading his own words in an article by him "My Vision of Peace
By Admiral (ret.) Ami Ayalon"

link: http://ameinu.net/perspectives/current_issues.php?articleid=28

snip:"Let me tell you why terror levels fell. It did not happen because of the Israeli Shin-Bet, I was the director most of the time and I can tell you that Avi Dichter who replaced me is a very good Director. From an operational point of view the Israeli Shin-Bet is doing a great job.

There are reasons other than the Shin Bet that terror levels fell. We analyzed these and found a very interesting correlation between three factors. The first was Palestinian public opinion, as it was measured by Doctor Khalil Shikaki. The second factor was the terror policy made by Hamas, and the third factor was the prevention and security policy of the Palestinian Authority. "

snip:"As we understood it then, when support for the peace process was high amongst the Palestinian street the Palestinian Authority made greater efforts to prevent terror and Hamas used terror less often.

Allow me to explain. We Israelis see Hamas as a terror organization and we are right. But we must understand that Hamas is not only a terrorist organization. It is also a way of life and a religious movement. Hamas has charities, they have municipal organizations, and they have financial organizations. Hamas will not fight against the will of the Palestinian street. They will not use terror when Palestinians do not approve of terrorism as a legitimate tool.

When Palestinians see progress in the political process (the peace process) they do not approve terror as a legitimate tool. This is why when the Palestinians felt like they were achieving freedom, less humiliation, and an improved economy they did not approve of Hamas or terror. For this reason the PA could fight against terror and Hamas without being perceived as Israeli collaborators. "

[Donald Ian Rankin]

7. He sounds eminently sane, and thus sadly unelectable. I hope he wins, though.

It would mean that Israeli voters had at least a party to vote for who would and possibly could start making peace, if they so chose. Sadly, I don't think they would so choose for the forseeable future, but it would mean that the possibility was there, and I would love to be proven wrong.

What are his domestic policies like?

[LeftishBrit]

6. Insofar as I can judge from the UK...

I definitely prefer Ayalon to Barak. However, any Labour government would have to be better than any Likud government!