|
Edited on Sun Apr-29-07 06:18 PM by bemildred
What is one thing that Syria, Iran, and Turkey all agree on? They all agree that the idea of a sovereign Kurdish state in what is now northern Iraq is a bad idea. Why is that? Because they all have substantial Kurdish minorities living in areas adjacent to the prospective Kurdish state. They all fear, with good reason, that their Kurdish minorities will want to join the new Kurdish state to form the new rich nation of "Greater Kurdistan". There appears to be an excellent chance that there will be a regional war in the near future to decide on the question of the existence and extent of Greater Kurdistan, and it is rather unclear who else might be dragged into that conflict, given the alliances of the different parties, and of course there is all that oil.
Now shift your eyes over to the region between the Jordan and the sea, and consider the similar situation arising with the creation of a new sovereign Palestinian state. What do you have? You have large Palestinian minority populations living in both Israel and all of the surrounding states. What is going to happen to those populations? They can repatriate or they can stay where they are. If they repatriate you have a sudden large increase in the Palestinian population between the Jordan and the sea, leaving the Jewish Israeli population even more outnumbered than it stands to be already, and, because the new Palestinian state is sovereign, persons who remain disgruntled will be much better placed to arm themselves and pursue their own interests. If they stay where they are, they become a permanent headache to the nations they remain in, and a continuing threat to Israel while their grievances are not resolved. What happens if they decide they want to join the new Palestinian state too?
Of course, if the new Palestinian state is not sovereign, then the conflict will continue, too. Installing a stooge government will not buy you much unless it is seen as legitimate, and legitimacy is not something Israel can give to a Palestinian government, and legitimacy will not be maintained unless the new Palestinian government acts in a sovereign fashion.
Now, my point is not that I favor a one-state solution, or a two-state solution, but rather it is that it is wrong to think that any change in political structures is likely to produce some dramatic improvement. Simply because you have a new government does not imply that it has the means, the will, or the public legitimacy to do anything useful. It is equally likely that change, any change, will make the situation worse, that the present situation, to borrow the title of an academy award movie, is "as good as it gets".
|