Analysis: Sharon's Condition Causes Turmoil (yahoo news)

[Beam Me Up]

By STEVEN GUTKIN, Associated Press Writer 1 minute ago

JERUSALEM - Ariel Sharon's massive stroke threw Israeli
politics and Mideast peacemaking efforts into turmoil,
threatening momentum for a deal with the Palestinians and
enhancing the position of hard-liners.

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The Israeli prime minister broke away from the Likud Party of
Benjamin Netanyahu in November, and the new centrist party he
formed had been the favorite to win March 28 elections. But
Kadima was largely a one-man show which would have an
uncertain future without the 77-year-old Sharon.

Medical experts said the chances are slim for Sharon to make a
full recovery from the sort of massive stroke he suffered
Wednesday.

In recent months, many Israelis have placed high hopes on
Sharon as the politician best positioned to draw Israel's
final borders in a settlement with the Palestinians.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/sharon_mideast;_ylt=Anh8pZXuqDyEVnEot7bzr0hhr7sF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

Edit to plain text because link breaks in BBcode

[bpilgrim]

1. as bad as sharon was bibi - likely successor - is even worse

this makes me very nervous :scared:

peace

[bemildred]

2. Doesn't bother me any.

If anything, this may allow an opening for negotiations. No
guarantee, but maybe.  You know that with Jabba there it was
not going to happen.

[bpilgrim]

3. bibi doesn't bother you?

well i think israel will turn even further to the right and
that always makes me nervous.

peace

[bemildred]

5. No, he's an asshole, but he's a self-serving asshole.

I'm not convinced he will get elected, but even if he does,
he'll be thinking about what's good for Bibi.  I don't see how
he could be worse than Sharon.  Consider, he was PM before,
was it worse than the last 5 years?

[Darranar]

8. What about Iran?

Ahmadinejad and Netanyahu is not a good combination.

Netanyahu cannot possibly hope to maintain
"disengagement" while retaining political
credibility; he will erode the progress of the past two years
if elected.

But I agree with you that it is far from certain that he will
be.

[bemildred]

9. What progress?

I suppose you mean Gaza, which I view in the same way as the
withdrawal from Lebanon, and while a good thing, I don't
consider that any progress has been made at all on the larger
issues of attaining peace and stability, rather the opposite.
Sharon has consistently done everything he could to avoid
negotiation or accomodation, and he was way better at it than
Bibi would ever be.  Bibi is not very bright, from what I can
see. 

[Darranar]

10. Gaza and the decrease in casualties.

While in the long term what has been going on is not likely to
be very productive, in the short term it has brought a period
of relative calm, one considerably preferable to the situation
a few years ago.

[bemildred]

11. Well, the last year has been better, that way.

But I think that is over anyway, for various reasons.  It's
not that I want to be in the position of defending NuttyYahoo,
I just don't think he's capable of doing much to affect the
situation.

[IndianaGreen]

4. Bibi will not negotiate with Palestinians, he will reoccupy Gaza

and he will probably move Sharon's wall all the way to the
Jordanian border.

If you compare Sharon to Jabba the Hutt, then Bibi is Senator
Palpatine.

[bemildred]

6. I must say, Bibi re-occupying Gaza would be something to watch. nt

[Wordie]

7. Are you sure Netanyahu would really stop at the Jordanian border?

There might be security reasons for using Jordan as a
"buffer state."

::sarcasm::

(And that sarcasm was on general principles, not aimed at you,
Indiana.)

[Englander]

12. Haaretz analysts: Political scenarios in a post-Sharon era

By Haaretz Staff

Yossi Verter: Nothing is certain anymore. Everything that
seemed to be true until yesterday has taken a major hit. If,
before Wednesday, Ariel Sharon and his Kadima party had been
seen as the great victors of the elections, Thursday marked
the return of the election race. 

  >snip

  Aluf Benn: The big winners in the political arena after the
deterioration in Sharon's health are the Likud top two,
Benjamin Netanyahu and Silvan Shalom. Netanyahu returns to the
starting line of the elections race as a candidate with a good
chance of becoming prime minister once again, despite the fact
that he had been dismissed as the leader of a marginal
right-wing party. 

  >snip

  Daniel Ben Simon: I am hopeful and fearful that if Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon does not show signs of recovery within
the next two weeks, he will be forgotten and his new party
will turn over a new page.

   >snip

  Akiva Eldar
The Kadima party will face its big test when it chooses
Sharon's heir. If it unites around a single leader quickly -
probably Olmert - and creates the mechanisms for choosing its
Knesset candidates that Sharon did not manage to establish, it
will enjoy the support of a large proportion of the public. 

   http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/666777.html