Sharon suffers serious stroke

[Scurrilous]

Prime minister rushed to Jerusalem hospital after feeling unwell; hospital official says Sharon suffered 'significant stroke' and is being ventilated and anesthetized. Olmert designated as temporary Sharon replacement

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3195215,00.html

<snip>

"Sharon suffers serious stroke: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon suffered a "significant stroke" Wednesday evening and is currently being ventilated and anesthetized, Jerusalem Ein Kerem hospital director announced.

Shortly thereafter, the hospital director added Sharon was suffering from a brain hemorrhage and has been rushed to surgery. Senior medical officials estimated Sharon is in very serious condition.

The prime minister was rushed to the hospital earlier on his personal doctor's orders after feeling unwell."

<snip>

"Sharon first complained of feeling unwell around 9:20 p.m. Wednesday. His personal doctor, Professor Shlomo Segev was called in from his central Israel residence. At that point, the prime minister was conscious. Segev told Sharon's aides he decided to rush the PM to hospital for fear he suffered another stroke.

Sharon was taken to hospital in an intensive care ambulance stationed at his ranch on a permanent basis following his stroke. The prime minister was reportedly sitting down during most of the ride to Jerusalem."

[Tom Joad]

1. I mourn the fact that he will never be held accountable for his crimes

[tatertop]

2. I guess I can't argue with that

[Violet_Crumble]

4. Neither can I...

...but on a personal level, I feel bad for him and especially his family...

Violet...

[tatertop]

8. I can't honestly say I feel bad for him, even on a personal level

Let us never forget (at very least) Sabra and Chatila and Sharon's response to it.

Ariel Sharon said recently he regretted the tragedy of Sabra and Shatila, but asked if he would apologise he replied "To apologise for what?"
-- F. Keane, in "The Accused", BBC-Panorama, 17/6/2001 ---

[AndreiX]

48. Death of a war criminal

I hate to say it, but I have no pity for the man either. What a monstrous war criminal...

[Behind the Aegis]

43. .

:eyes:

[Violet_Crumble]

3. This doesn't sound good at all...

..though it's not surprising that a more serious stroke happens after a minor one. He's in that age group where it's much more likely to happen...

Violet...

[wtbymark]

5. and when a hemorage occurs

well lets just say the odds are not in his favor for survival. depending on where the hemorage occurred he may never regain consciousness

[bemildred]

11. Like I said after the first one, he's toast.

These things do not usually occur in a man of his age and condition fortuitously.

[sabbat hunter]

18. cerebral hemmorage

the problem sharon suffered, a cerebral hemmorage probably was made worse by the anticoagulant drugs given to him after his minor stroke in dec.

[Violet_Crumble]

20. I didn't know that...

My doctor put me on anticoagulants after my stroke, and he told me they'd help prevent any future strokes. Obviously in Sharon's case, they didn't....

[sabbat hunter]

27. in sharons case

he was given anticoagulants after the first stroke. but this one was a result of bleeding in his brain, possibly worstened by the anticoagulants.

if for some reason they misdiagnosed his first one and it was a small hemorage stroke the anticoagulants could have made things worse.

[Violet_Crumble]

36. Small cerebral hemorrages are pretty uncommon, aren't they?

They're usually the kind of catastrophic strokes like the one he's had now. Which would possibly explain why it was thought to be the other more minor sort. And I guess it's not unusual that after a minor stroke, they didn't pinpoint where it had started or why. With mine it took them days to come up with a vague theory that an artery in my neck had gotten temporarily blocked by turning my head too sharply earlier that day, and there was no diagnosis about why it happened or why it couldn't happen again...

Anyway, things aren't sounding good at all for him. He's been in surgery for hours and hours now, and when I see those little headlines at Ha'aretz with other politicians wishing him a speedy recovery, I'm thinking they're being very optomistic....

Violet...

[mattclearing]

6. There's something at Drudge about intra-cranial bleeding.

The linked AP/Breitbart article says he was "bleeding heavily."

Sounds bad. As much as Sharon's policies suck ass, if this means Netanyahu gets elected, that's even worse.

[elfin]

7. this is THE important news of the day

Abramoff will simmer and pop new items, the miners' families will need some peace until they decide who to go after - but I bet the MSM will lead with the miners and not Sharon - we shall see in a short while.

[Scurrilous]

9. PM suffers significant stroke, undergoing surgery

Full title: PM suffers significant stroke, undergoing surgery for intra-cranial bleeding.

<snip>

"Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was rushed into surgery at Hadassah University Hospital, Ein Karem late Wednesday night, after intra-cranial bleeding was detected, following what doctors described as a "significant stroke."

There was no immediate assessment of the damage he may have suffered, but doctors assessed that Sharon's chances of recovery may not be high."

more

[Wordie]

10. MSNBC reporting that analysts have said his life may be in danger... n/t

[occuserpens]

12. Most likely, it is the end (n/t)

Does this mean that Netanyahu wins?

[IndianaGreen]

13. This will be a major setback to peace!

Sharon's party, Kadima, will collapse. The lunatics that remain in Likud will win and put the corrupt Bibi Netanyahu as PM.

An analogy to American politics in terms of political consequences, rather than personalities, would be to say that Sharon is Reagan while Bibi is George W. Bush.

[occuserpens]

14. hmmmmm... n/t

[Violet_Crumble]

15. Why? Did the Labor party just vanish?

Because they are the ONLY major party in Israel that are interested in peace. The Kadima vision of peace was a fake one where Israel takes unilateral steps and territory and leaves the Palestinians in misery. That's not a real peace...

From what I've read, if the PM is incapacitated for 100 days, on the 101st day it's ruled that they're permanently out of action, and then the President selects an MK to form a new govt. So why are you so sure that Netanyahu would become PM? Wouldn't Olmert be a more likely choice?

Violet...

[IndianaGreen]

16. Labour Party has as much a chance of winning as Socialist Party USA

does in the US.

Get real!

[Violet_Crumble]

17. I saw a poll yesterday that says otherwise...

Yr making out that the Labor Party is some tiny party, which is totally wrong. I dunno, is the Socialist Party USA tipped to win a bunch of seats in the next US election? Because the Labor Party was tipped in a poll I saw yesterday to win around 15 seats, coming in 2nd after Kadima, (the warmongers 'peace' party), while Likud trailed miles behind both Kadima and Labor...

I'd say that Labor has a much higher chance of winning an election than Likud, which is why I'm not understanding why you seem certain that Nuttynahu will become the next PM...

Violet...

[IndianaGreen]

19. You must have been reading the Walt Disney poll

Labour had 21 seats in the current Knesset before Shimon Peres defected to Kadima, so if Labour is "going to win" 15 seats, that's a net loss!

http://www.knesset.gov.il/mk/eng/mkindex_current_eng.asp?view=1

[regnaD kciN]

22. Which is irrelevant, because...

...as I stated before, such polling was based on the assumption of a three-way race. Both established major parties were seen as losing seats to Kadima, but Labor was doing less so than Likud.

My prediction is that, should Sharon not survive or Kadima dissolve, the election is going to turn into a contest to pick up the centrist votes that would have gone to Kadima. (Yes, I know, this is sounding a bit like everything the DLC says about U.S. politics, but in this case it's accurate.) And I tend to think that Peretz, who was already under criticism from some Laborites for being insufficiently combative, would be better suited temperamentally to make that move than Netanyahu, who, over the past five years, has come across as far more the inflexible ideologue.

[Violet_Crumble]

23. No, Indy. It was published in the Age...

Yr claim that Labor has as much chance of winning an election as the US Socialist Party was wrong, and you were told why. Note, I didn't say Labor would win, just that claims that they stood as much chance as a minor political US party was wrong...

And you still haven't explained why yr so certain Nuttynahu would become PM.

just thought I'd add that while it would be devastating for Israel and the Palestinians for Nutty to become PM, it would be amusing to watch the posts calling Sharon a man of peace doing all he can to make the world a better place, smoothly change to Netanyahu doing all he can to make the world a better place :)

[regnaD kciN]

21. Not necessarily...

Every poll run so far has been on the basis of "center" (Kadima), "left" (Labor), and "right" (Likud). Even so, Labor has run ahead of Likud.

What happens when/if it's only a two-party race? No one knows.

The question would be: were Sharon and his Kadima party favored by voters because it appeared he was moving toward a two-state solution (albeit one heavily skewed in Israel's favor) rather than drawing a line in the sand against it? Or was he favored because Israelis believed that his newfound desire for a peaceful solution was merely a P.R. act designed to tell Washington what it wanted to hear? The upcoming vote, should Kadima collapse or not be headed by an ailing Sharon, will tell the tale. It will also tell what Israelis prefer as the "second option"...a move toward a peaceful, two-state solution, or a backing away from it.

We live in interesting times.

[IndianaGreen]

24. It has never been a "two party" race

Israel uses proportional representation and has always been a multi-party democracy. When Labour and Likud were the dominant parties, they still needed the minor parties in coalition to get legislation through the Knesset.

[Violet_Crumble]

26. They didn't say it ever had been...

What they asked was what happens if/when it becomes a two party race, which it may well become. And living in a country that uses proportional representation and isn't a two-party system, anyone who told me that because of our system, there isn't and never can be a 'two party' race is showing their ignorance of that political system. Of course proportional representation and multi-party systems doesn't mean that two dominant parties end up in a 'two party' race - it happens here all the time...

Violet...

[regnaD kciN]

28. I think you understand my point...

The fact is that there are many parties (Green, Taxpayers, Socialist Workers, etc.) in the U.S. as well, but it is de facto a two-way race between Democrats and Republicans.

Up until now, similarly, the Israeli election was a three-way race between Labor, Kadima, and Likud. Now it may become a two-way race. While it's possible that the "loser" of that race might be able to build a coalition while the "winner" cannot, it's not all that likely. And the winning party would get the first shot at it.

[Violet_Crumble]

25. Yes, that was my point exactly...

That Labor has run way ahead of Likud in the polls, yet she's claiming that there will be a Likud PM...

Me, I think Kadima is favoured by voters who thought Kadima would move towards a two-state solution. Which is why I doubt that if Kadima ends us vanishing now, that people who would have voted for it would go rushing to vote Likud. It'd surprise me if any great number of Israelis who aren't hardliners would want to vote for a party that stands for what Likud stands for now...

Violet...

[Wordie]

31. Here are some other poll results, from Haaretz, out just today.

It shows this:
Kadima: 42 seats (gain of 3)
Labor: 19 seats (loss of 3)
Likud: 15 seats (no change)
Meretz: 3 (loss of 2)

In response to the question "What are the chances of you changing your decision before the election?", potential Labor and Kadima voters appear to be most set on their current preference, with just 22 percent to 23 percent of these voters saying that they could change their minds ahead of March 28. On the other hand, 31 percent of potential Likud voters expressed a degree of uncertainty regarding their current choice.

All in all, some 25 percent of the total number of respondents (622) said they may change their decision prior to the election.

When asked if they had changed their minds in the past month, 11 percent of the respondents replied in the affirmative.

The Haaretz-Channel 10 survey also asked, "From which of the three would you purchase a used car?"

Based on the responses, none of the three - Sharon, Amir Peretz or Benjamin Netanyahu - evoke much enthusiasm or faith as vendors in the used-car market. Some 20.5 percent said they would buy a used car from Sharon; 17 percent would purchase one from Peretz; and 16.5 percent would buy from Netanyahu. But 32 percent of the respondents said they wouldn't trust any of the three when it comes to a subject as sensitive as one's private vehicle.

Regarding the economy, 27.5 percent attributed the improving condition to the policies of former finance minister Netanyahu; 18 percent said Sharon's disengagement had done the trick; the same number attributed it to the fall-off in terror; and 15.5 percent said the global economic situation had led to the improvement in the Israeli economy.

http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArtVty.jhtml?sw=poll+seats+Knesset&itemNo=666170

At the point the survey was taken, Sharon had not yet had the second stroke, nor had the new corruption revelations come to light.

And this is from a earlier survey, taken on December 16 by Yedioth Ahronoth (Israel's leading newspaper) and Mina Tzemach...

Knesset seats, if the election were held today:
Kadima: 38 (down from 41 seats in an earlier survey)
Labor: 23 (a gain of two)
Likud: 11 (unchanged)
Shas: 10

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3185313,00.html

So it appears, at that point at least, that Labor was picking up seats from Kadima. And they still were predicted to have more than twice as many seats as Likud. YEAH!

It's interesting to note that the same survey said that 49% of Israeli voters would support the division of Jerusalem. It appears that the Israelis are not as far to the right as many seem to think. It will all boil down to what those Kadima supporters will do, it seems to me, if, as it appears at this point, Sharon is unable to resume his political career.

Some additional questions I have: how many seats are there altogether, and what is the alignment of the other parties who are likely to pick up Knesset seats?

[Darranar]

33. 120 total seats.

There will be a number of ultra-rightist Jewish fundamentalist parties that will be happy to form coalitions with Netanyahu. I would guess that Shinui is willing to form a coalition with either Likud or Labor. Meretz will likely go with Labor, if Labor does not form a coalition with Likud (with Peretz and Netanyahu, that's not going to happen) but its representation is miniscule.

[Wordie]

45. Aren't there a number of small leftist parties too?

Socialist parties and so on? Are most all the rest far right parties? It has sounded to me from some of what I've been reading that the Israeli electorate is pretty much split right down the middle, much as ours here in the US is, even despite the different electoral system and all the different parties in Israel.

(And I really appreciate the information, btw.)

[Darranar]

34. Most of the ones who would want to vote for Likud are already there.

The vast majority of Kadima supporters are supporters of the disengagement plan, and Netanyahu has essentially built Likud as the party opposed to it. Peretz, if he takes advantage of the vagueness of the difference between Labor's and Kadima's platforms and presents himself as the defender of the current progress, will be able to usurp a majority of that third of the Israeli electorate, and will win the election.

[eyl]

42. Problem is

that a lot of would-be Kadima voters don't especially trust Peretz either; if Kadima goes belly-up, my suspicion is that voter turnout will drastically drop.

[Darranar]

32. And the Likud about as much as the Constitution Party.

With Netanyahu in charge the Kadima voters - assuming the party falls apart, which it may not - are not about to go back to Likud, they will split. Peretz's peace plan is not so distinct from Sharon's that he can't make himself out to be Sharon's successor, and Netanyahu's belligerent stances have already isolated him. He's appealed strongly to his base already, and it will hurt him.

[Violet_Crumble]

35. Darranar, do you know much about Olmert?

I think with him being deputy PM, there's more chance that he'll become the next Israeli PM, rather than Netanyahu, and I kind of suspect that some are trotting out the Netanyahu boogeyman in an attempt to scare us all into thinking that as Bibi is really horrific, then Sharon was really a peaceloving sort of guy...

I've heard some good things about Olmert, but don't really know too much about him...

Violet...

[Darranar]

37. No, I do not.

He seems to be similar to Sharon policy-wise, but I have no idea how effective he is as a politician.

Here's the Wikipedia article about him: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehud_Olmert

[bpilgrim]

30. i would say it is only gonna get worse

:scared:

peace

[eyl]

44. I think the critical question

is how fast Kadima can organize itself as a real party.

Even if (hopefully) Sharon survives, and is mentally unimpaired, he's highly unlikely to be capable of resuming the PM's duties; at best, he's in for a long convalescence. And even if he were, his health - and the chance he'll survive a full term, or even a significant part of one - will be much more of an issue in the election. For Kadima to survive, it needs to transform itself from a one-man show, essentially a vehicle for Sharon, into a real party, with a clear platform and clear lines/means of succession and secondary leaders. I assume its members will make the attempt to do so, if only because of predator pressure (the other party lists are closed by now, and I doubt they'll be opened just to benefit those who jumped ship, so Kadima's members don't really have anywhere to go); the question is if they can do so fast enough to take the election.

[Wordie]

47. Thanks for that info, eyl. I was wondering if Kadima members could join

other parties, and so realign the political landscape. So, what I understand you to have said is that the party lines are drawn now, without possibility of change. So I'm sure I've got it clearly could you answer this: do those other parties still have the option to vote to re-open their lists, upon some definitive statement that Sharon will not return, or is there something within Israeli law that would prevent that?

It would really seem to me that it would be to the benefit of those other parties to re-open their lists, if, as it surely appears now Sharon will be unable to run. They would gain other members; I would think that they would want that.

Do you have any sense of who it will be at the head of Kadima now? Olmert?

[eyl]

52. According to Israeli law

(the Knesset Elections Law (combined version) section 57(9)), the list of candidates has to be handed to the Central Elections Committee no less than 47 days before the elections. So the parties still have until mid-February or so to reopen the lists (assuming their respective charters allow doing so) and insert new candidates. In my opinion, however, they are unlikely to do so for several reasons.

Firstly, the defection of large parts of their more centrist members has shifted their parties - away from the center*. If Kadima's members were to return to their original parties,their parties would shift back to the center; something the current members of those parties would likely object to.

Second, with the possible exception of a few of the most prominent Kadima members, who can be viewed as electoral assets (e.g. Peres or Mofaz) the parties (including the rank and file) are unlikely to want to "reward" jumping ship by giving the returnees viable places on the lists.

Third, giving any returnees viable places on the lists would mean moving the current members down, something they're likely to object to.

Even if any returnees were accepted, I suspect it would be only on acceptance of their parties' new political stance, and probably with only marginally viable positions on the list at best.

In any event, I think it's too early to eulogize Kadima. A recent poll showed that Kadima could still retain its strength even with different leadership - though the article projects a drop in recent months, the projection is that Kadima will still stabilize in a leading position. If I had to guess, I would say Olmert is most likely to become the new party head. Peres (assuming he doesn't return to Labor, as rumors are suggesting) is unlikely a candidate - he's far less trusted in Israel than his international stature would suggest, his history of losing elections would make the members leery of selecting him, and currently the public can be expected to house concerns regarding any PM candidate of his age. While there are various drawbacks to Olmert (notably corruption issues), these are issues the Israeli public is willing to overlook (as with Sharon) while there are more pressing matters at hand. Personally, I'd like to see Livny at the head, but I think she's too junior to have the necessary support.

*This is especially true for Likud, because Labor had already shifted somewhat to the left in the earlier elections, because Likud (despite its image abroad) occupied a broader section of Israel's political spectrum, and because a greater number of Likud members switched to Kadima.

[Wordie]

53. Thank you very much. That analysis was very thourough and clear. eom

[Scurrilous]

29. Hadassah hospital: PM`s surgery has lasted five and a half hours so far.

From haaretz, no link.

[Wordie]

38. Sharon back into surgery for bleeding in other areas of his brain: Haaretz

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was rushed into surgery at Hadassah University Hospital, Ein Karem shortly after midnight Wednesday, after suffering a "significant" stroke with "massive bleeding" in his brain, a hospital official said.

Early Thursday morning, the Hadassah director, Professor Shlomo Mor-Yosef, told reporters that Sharon had been given a CT scan after more than six hours in the operating theater, and had then been taken back for further surgery to treat bleeding in other areas of his brain.

Mor-Yosef said that in addition to the surgery, Sharon was receiving medication to counter the bleeding, and the drugs would take several hours to have an effect.

"We expect the surgery will take several more hours. The prime minister is sedated and on a respirator. One could say his condition is grave," Mor-Yosef said.

It doesn't look good...

[barb162]

40. I heard organ failure was beginning a few hours ago

A reporter mentioned it from "sources" at the hospital

[barb162]

39. I hope he gets well

[Wordie]

41. I wish him the best recovery as well.

I disagree vehemently with his policies, but I wouldn't wish a stroke on any person.

[Scurrilous]

46. Sharon on life-support after 9-hour surgery

<snip>

"Ariel Sharon emerged from hours of surgery Thursday morning with vital signs showing "functional and stable" levels, but the prime minister's condition remained grave, said Professor Shlomo Mor-Yosef, director of Hadassah University Hospital, Ein Karem.

Neurosurgeons had fought to stabilize Sharon's condition and stop new bleeding detected in his brain Thursday morning, more than eight hours after the prime minister was rushed into emergency surgery having suffered a "far-reaching" stroke and a massive brain hemorrhage.

"The prime minister had a CT scan that showed that the bleeding has stopped," Mor-Yosef told reporters at the entrance to the Jerusalem hospital. "He was then put in the neurological emergency unit for observation."

According to Mor-Yosef, "All vital signs are functional and stable. The prime minister is in critical condition." There was no word as to the damage Sharon may have suffered."


more

[occuserpens]

49. CONFIRMED: PM ARIEL SHARON IS (AT LEAST CLINICALLY) DEAD

http://web.israelinsider.com/Articles/Politics/7461.htm

[Behind the Aegis]

50. from the link...

"Director of Hadassah Hospital Shlomo Mor-Yosef officially denies "rumors" of death and says Sharon's condition is "serious but stable.""

This is similar to what happened with Arafat's passing.

[Wordie]

51. CNN: Sharon is in a medically-induced coma; vital signs are good.

The coma is to prevent any further pressure in the brain, giving it time to heal. He will gradually be brought out of the coma by medical personnel, after the first 24-hour period. At that time, doctors will be better able to assess his prognosis.

(All this is paraphrased somewhat, but that's the gist of it.)