Palestine-Jordan Confederation?

[liberalpragmatist]

Once the Israelis and Palestinians have negotiated a final status agreement and the Israeli Occupation is declared over, would it make sense for a sovereign Palestinian state to form some sort of confederation with Jordan?

The reason I ask is because of the many ties between Jordanians and Palestinians. Many of the towns on the immediate East Bank of the Jordan River were historically part of the same cultural/social sphere as Palestinian towns and villages in the West Bank. Jordan is also the only Arab state to integrate its Palestinian refugees, giving them citizenship. As a result, Jordan is over 60% Palestinian, and Palestinians dominate the country's urban centers and the capital, Amman. The current Jordanian Queen is Palestinian and the heir to the Jordanian crown is thus half-Palestinian.

Given that even if the entire West Bank and the Gaza (or an equivalent amount of territory) is given to the Palestinians, that gives them one of the most densely-populated areas in the world and there are questions over whether it would be viable on its own.

For these reasons, it would seem to me that a Palestinian-Jordanian confederation would make a great deal of sense. The extent of this confederation would be up for debate. It could simply be an intra-state economic and political alliance in which both countries retain their own independent identities and international representation. Or it could be a more formal, political confederation with single diplomatic representation abroad. Perhaps the Jordanian King could serve as the constitutional monarch of both states in a dual monarchy. There could be a shared two-state parliament or just some kind of shared council of ministers at the confederation level. Each unit - Palestine and Jordan - would be largely self-governing except for agreed-upon shared institutions.

There could be a currency union. That would give Palestinians a larger common market and links with Jordan's more developed business sector. Moreover, if Jordan permits this (and this is no sure thing), the Palestinian right-of-return could apply to Jordan as well, or parts of Jordan.

The Israelis could be happy because they have generally, relatively good relations with King Abdullah and the Jordanians. King Abdullah is a popular figure with Palestinians as well and it seems to me that such a framework would offer the best possibility for stability and prosperity for Israel, Palestine, and Jordan.

Of course, none of this should happen without the consent of both the Palestinians and the Jordanians. This must be the choice of a sovereign, democratically-elected Palestinian government, not a solution imposed by Israel. The Israeli-Right should not see this as a validation of the lies that "Jordan is Palestine" and "there are no 'Palestinians'."

Any thoughts?

[Behind the Aegis]

1. I have to think about this.

liberalpragmatist, PM the mods for this room (Lithos and undergroundrailroad) and ask for an exception that this stay open (it is not a recent article and will locked under IP rules), but I think it could provoke interesting discussion. If not locked, I will post some thoughts later.

A very interesting proposal you have placed before us!

[madrchsod]

2. maybe -

but i really think the isreali government would do it`s best to undermind any thing like a federation. this would be a bigger threat to the state than what they are dealing with now. the israeli`s have to much to lose and the palestinians may have more to win.

[Behind the Aegis]

3. Thoughts.

Once the occupation is over, why would a confederation be in the best interest of Palestine? Perhaps very close ties, but confederation almost sounds like Palestine would be a subsidiary of Jordan. While it is true that over half (54.4%) of the Jordanian population consider themselves Palestinian, I do not see Jordan acquiescing land for an increased Palestinian homeland. They had that opportunity when they controlled the West Bank prior to '67.

Of course, many see Jordan as Palestine already and the WB would be an extension. They even have the same flag, except Jordan has a white star in the field of red. The real benefit would be a stable Jordan helping a new Palestine. Also, Jordan has a peace agreement with Israel and this would be an added bonus to have Palestine agree as well.

I think one of the biggest problems is Hamas. If they win a majority or even a large amount of votes in the PA, Jordan may "ice" over. The have no love for Hamas whatsoever.

The first step is to negotiate "land for peace." Then, we can look at other issues.