By Danny Rubinstein
In the coming days, the Egyptians will continue their efforts to invite the heads of the Palestinian armed factions to Cairo to discuss an extension of the cease-fire agreement (the "lull"), which is about to expire at the end of the year - that is, in less than two months. The original agreement was achieved by Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), with the help of the Egyptians last March, and although it has been violated frequently, it can be said that it has held. Witness the relatively low number of attacks and victims this year, on both sides. The Egyptians have scheduled the start of discussions in Cairo for the middle of this month, but there may be a postponement of several days.
Those who clearly support a continuation of the lull are Abu Mazen's coalition partners, whom he inherited from Yasser Arafat. But these are small factions without public backing, headed by the communists (the People's Party) and Fada (those who broke away from the Democratic Front). The problem, of course, is Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the leftist fronts and Fatah groups such as the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and others. These groups, taken together, have very broad popular support, and a great deal of effort will be necessary to convince their leadership to continue with the current relative calm.
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The chances of continuing the current calm are good, mainly because most of the Palestinian public - which has become very tired and greatly weakened during the five years of the intifada - is interested in it. All the public opinion polls in the territories prove that. Moreover, Abu Mazen is putting all his weight behind the lull, and is receiving a great deal of Arab and international support, the likes of which no Palestinian leader has received in the past.
In spite of all that, we should make no mistake, not about Abu Mazen and not about Palestinian public opinion. The willingness for a lull - i.e., for a halt to the violence - does not reflect a Palestinian willingness to accept even minimal Israeli demands. Neither the separation fence that is being built on their land, nor the effort to "Judaize" Jerusalem, nor the reinforcement of the settlement blocs. From their point of view, the Israeli demand of them is: You Palestinians will sit quietly, and we Israelis will build settlements and outposts, remove Arabs from Jerusalem and bring Jews instead of them. That's how it has been all these years, even during the Oslo period, and that's how it will continue.
In light of this situation, every time the PA is asked "to dismantle the terror infrastructure" - in the West Bank and Gaza, this is understood as a demand for surrender, as a demand not to do anything in the face of Israeli activity. Therefore, the lull that continues will be very temporary and fragile. A kind of time-out during an intifada whose end is not in sight.
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