And I'm seeing a couple of problems with the report.
The first is that when it speaks of "crime guns," the actual data is ATF raw trace data (footnote 6, page 6). The problem with that is that not all crime guns are traced, and not all traced guns have been used in crimes, and it's dishonest to conflate the two without explanation, as this report does. It was precisely this kind of behavior that led to the Tiahrt Amendment, which prohibited the ATF from releasing trace data to anyone other than registered law enforcement agencies, and even then only in connection with an ongoing criminal investigation.
The second is that in pp.8-9, where it asserts that gun shows are a "major crime gun source," it makes no distinction between firearms sold by FFLs at gun shows (where they still have to run NICS checks) and firearms sold by private sellers at gun shows. Since the reports already acknowledges on p.3 that "between 50% and 75% of firearms vendors at gun shows are licensed dealers who already must perform background checks under the law" and on p.4 that the National Association of Arms Shows "readily admits that its estimate <of firearms sold> significantly undercounts the number of guns sold by licensed dealers," it cannot be assumed that all these crime guns--or even a significant portion--were necessarily sold at the gun shows in question by private sellers.
One of the report's sources is an ATF report titled
Following the Gun (which can be found in .pdf form here:
http://www.endgunviolence.com/vertical/Sites/%7BAAEC109F-616F-49FC-8E4C-EDEA9EDD71E9%7D/uploads/%7B1EBD35CD-CF32-475A-AEB4-E6B83049F790%7D.PDF). In contrast to what is implied in AGS report, however, the ATF report states (p.10):
The most frequent type of trafficking channel identified in ATF investigations is straw purchasing from federally licensed firearms dealers. Nearly 50 percent of the ATF investigations involved firearms being trafficked by straw purchasers either directly or indirectly. The investigations also involve trafficking by unlicensed sellers (more than 20 percent); by federally licensed dealers (just under 9 percent); and diversion from gun shows and flea markets by FFLs or unlicensed sellers (about 14 percent).
Emphases in bold mine. So there we have a problem: based on available data (admittedly now over ten years old), some 14% of recovered crime guns entered the criminal circuit via gun shows,
but the source at those gun shows includes FFLs, who form 50-75% of firearm vendors at these shows. This, the AGS report conveniently fails to mention.
I suggest that those posters who say criminals dont get their guns at gun shows read this 15 page report.
The two findings are not mutually exclusive. The DoJ report
Firearms Use by Offenders (
http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/fuo.pdf) states that 1.7% of respondents in 1997 said they'd acquired the gun used in the crime for which they were convicted at a flea market or gun show. But that concerns acquisition by the "end user"
directly. The ATF report, by contrast, speaks of "diversion from gun shows and flea markets," which allows for situations such a trafficker (or a straw purchaser for the trafficker) acquiring guns at a gun show, then transporting them to another state, and there sells them to the "end user," possibly via a local intermediary. That way, the "end user" would not personally have acquired the firearm at a gun show, even though the gun did enter the criminal circuit that way. Another possible scenario is that the "end user" has a friend or family member go to the gun show for him.
As I say, the DoJ and ATF reports' respective findings don't rule each other out. I will acknowledge that some of my confederates are perhaps a little too eager to interpret the DoJ report's findings as meaning that gun shows are an almost negligible source of firearms to the black market (ignoring the possibility that the gun may travel via an intermediary), but again, the ATF report states that 14% of its investigations into trafficking involved guns that were diverted at gun shows, at least some of which (and possibly many or even most) were bought from FFLs, not from private sellers.
It's quite plausible that the so-called "gun show loophole" (i.e.
private sellers at gun shows, as opposed to FFLs at gun shows) is responsible for less than 10% of guns diverted to criminal use, and very possibly less than 5%.