It’s official - repeal of the 1994 ban did not turn our streets into killing fields

[derby378]

The FBI has made public its account of violent crime statistics in the United States in a report detailing crime rates from 1987-2006...According to the FBI report, 17,034 acts of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter were committed in 2006, or a rate of 5.7 per 100,000 inhabitants. This with the 1994 ban on semi-automatic firearms having been allowed to expire in September 2004.

Now check out the murder/nonnegligent manslaughter rates while that ban was still in effect, with corresponding rates per 100,000 inhabitants:

1995: 21,606 Rate: 8.2
1996: 19,645 Rate: 7.4
1997: 18,208 Rate: 6.8
1998: 16,974 Rate: 6.3
1999: 15,522 Rate: 5.7
2000: 15,586 Rate: 5.5
2001: 16,037 Rate: 5.6
2002: 16,229 Rate: 5.6
2003: 16,528 Rate: 5.7
2004: 16,148 Rate: 5.5

http://blog.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=blog.view&friendID=161038273&blogID=413927049

[iverglas]

1. odd; what I'm seeing

is a rather precipitous decline in the homicide rate over that period (or at least, as was recently pointed out, ovr the first half-decade of it).

Not that I'd care to attribute that decline to anything in particular. I'm just wondering what you're seeing that I'm not.

[derby378]

3. Repeal of the ban did not reverse the overall trend

I'm not saying we don't have a long way to go in curbing violent crime in America. I'm only suggesting that one of the proposed tools for fighting violent crime here has just been invalidated.

[Brotherjohn]

4. Slackmaster is right. Violent crime is influenced by MANY things, and the economy is among...

... the most obvious. Poor people are more desperate, desperate people commit more crime, more crime equates to more murders.

That's not to say availability of guns doesn't affect the murder rate. It's just that if it did, it would be one of many factors; and the factors add together to produce a net result.

I will also point out that there was a precipitous decline in the years after the ban (which again, could be due to economy improving as much as lower avail. of semis). But there is no a priori reason to expect that, if this decline WERE due to the gun law, that it would immediately rise again to the old level within two years of the repeal. Different mechanisms are at work as far as guns getting back into people's hands.

Maybe the availability of guns only leads to increased murder when the economy is bad and people are desperate? And only in the last 2-3 years has the economy turned sour; maybe the 2007-2008 numbers would show a rise? An admittedly oversimplified argument, but one to make the point that it's a lot more complicated than looking at one number.

[slackmaster]

7. I would also add that the ban did not materially affect availability of a real class of firearms

Manufacturers and importers of rifles, handguns, and shotguns that were affected by the law quickly adapted by reconfiguring MOST of their products in ways that made them compliant.

Even the limit on magazine capacity was not really effective, because for most firearms that use them, abundant supplies of magazines that hold more than 10 rounds were already in the market.

I've never seen any hard evidence that other in a very few isolated cases, limiting magazines to 10 rounds as opposed to 12, 15, 17, 20, 30, etc. would really make any difference. As for flash suppressors, bayonet lugs, and folding stocks, once again these features rarely if ever have played any real role in the occurrence or severity of any kind of crime.

The AW ban was passed for almost entirely political reasons.

[krispos42]

5. We're all seeing it

In fact, it's shown graphically in my US/UK homicide rate chart.


The problem was that there are seven things that I can think of that might account for the decline in homicide rates:

1. The assault-weapons "ban" provisions
   
   
2. The national background check system
   
   
3. The waiting periods introduced with the Brady Bill
   
   
4. Liberalization of concealed-carry laws nationwide
   
   
5. Implementation of 3-strike-and-you're-out laws in some states, including the biggest, California
   
   
6. Clinton's COPS program that ultimately put 50,000 federally-funded local police officers on the streets
   
   
7. The good economy and the internet boom of the 90's.

My gut tells me most of it was due to 5,6, and 7, with maybe a little from 2 and/or 3.

[kudzu22]

22. Don't forget the aging

Don't forget the aging of the population. Old people don't join gangs (except AARP) and rob liquor stores. In 1995 the average baby boomer was 45 years old. Now they're 58.

[slackmaster]

2. The data suggest what I have suspected for many years

US murder rates are more closely (negatively) correlated to the general state of the economy than any other single factor.

[spin]

6. If you are correct murder rates will rise dramitically in the next...

year. The economy appears to be about to tank.

I would definitely expect the suicide rate to climb.

[iverglas]

8. yes, I was just thinking how conveeeenient that would be

The assault weapon ban repeal has time to have effects, the economy tanks, the homicide rate rises ...

For pity's sake, who ever said the homicide rate would rise if the assault weapon ban were repealed?

[spin]

9. If the crime and murder rate does increase...

The politicians will have the opportunity to attempt to enact legislation that would reinstate the assault weapon ban and some new legislation such as:

1) Regulate bullets and eliminate the sale of hollow point rounds.

2) Ban semi-auto handguns and limit gun ownership to only revolvers (similar to Washington D.C.)

3) Astronomically increase taxes on ammunition making it basically unfordable for the average citizen.

4) Require all new firearms to micro stamp fired cases.

Of course, these ideas if passed will have little or no effect on the crime rate, but they will allow the people we elect to look like they're doing something. Meanwhile they can avoid addressing the root causes of the problem, the main one which would be the economic collapse. The underlying causes of crime are very very hard to solve. I sometimes wonder if our elected officials are capable to addressing them.

But you will have the opportunity to engage in many more entertaining discussions with pro-gun posters on DU.

[benEzra]

10. Why would one expect the expiration to have *any* effects?

The expiration didn't change the price, availability, or popularity of "assault weapons" in any way.

[AtheistCrusader]

11. Carl Levin - D, Mich

"If the law is not reauthorized, the production of assault weapons can legally resume. Restarting production of these weapons will increase their number and availability and inevitably lead to a rise in gun crimes committed with assault weapons. The Congress should act this year to reauthorize the ban."

Just one example. Not 'homicide rate' specifically, but seems to say essentially the same thing, yes?

[iverglas]

13. "Not 'homicide rate' specifically"

Got that right, dincha?


but seems to say essentially the same thing, yes?

Nope.

[tburnsten]

16. How could you take it any other way?

How could his statement mean anything else? What is a "gun crime" that is committed with large heavy rifles OTHER than homicide? the occasional armed robbery? Unlikely or uncommon at best. Just because someone doesn't specifically draw a picture of a murder, doesn't mean murder isn't what he is talking about.

[AtheistCrusader]

17. I tend to agree.

Dead is dead. Doesn't matter if the assailant chose a rubber band and a toothpick, or an 'assault weapon'. The only way the weapon could make any difference that I can see is if we have more death, as a result of more rounds being expended during the commission of a crime, etc.

If the weapon doesn't enable MORE crime, then it's 'danger' to society is null.

In order for Levin's letter to the President to make any sense, I have to assume more crime, and or death, being enabled by these weapons. Which of course would raise the homicide rate.

[Tejas]

12. clue:

For pity's sake, who ever said the homicide rate would rise if the assault weapon ban were repealed?


Um, the same ones that claim a new AWB would curb the current homicide rate?


:rofl:

[iverglas]

14. not even

a clue. How about some names?

No investment in this myself, other than my heavy investment in honest discourse.

I certainly think access to the kinds of things covered by the "ban" (which of course it never was) should be restricted. I also think focusing on this and ignoring the handgun problem is just silly.

[Tejas]

15. then feel free

I also think focusing on this and ignoring the handgun problem is just silly.


to start a thread about handgun bans.

;)

[JMackT]

18. What problem would that be?

Regarding handguns? A Problem?

[tburnsten]

19. Apparently the problem is that they exist N?T

[benEzra]

20. That's apparently the perceived problem with "assault weapons"...

They exist, and they look icky. Or sinful. Or something.

[tburnsten]

21. I knew they were doing SOMETHING wrong!

I just couldn't put my finger on it! Thanks BenEzra!

[kudzu22]

23. Not surprising

It's not surprising that neither the ban nor its repeal had any effect on murder rates, considering that semi-automatic rifles are used in less than 1% of homicides.

[old mark]

24. The old "ban" on "assault weapons" did nearly nothing.

It forced importers to change the design of some imported guns to meet the criteria of the law - some gund had to have the bayonet attatchment lugs ground off, some had to have their pistol grip handgrips re-shaped, some had to have a few parts stamped "made in USA" to qualify.
Importers also knew these changes were coming, and imported many thousands of "pre-ban" semi-auto and military surplus guns to be sold at very inflated prices.

What the "ban" did was create some political points for the anti-gun crowd and the politicians who supported them.It raised prices on the weapons to be "banned" and increased the demand for them, and caused several different models of imported autoloading guns to be made up, creating yet more "collectable" guns at still higher prices.The importers and dealers actually supported the "ban" because their profits increased because of it.

Please note that "pre-ban" AK, FAL and SKS rifles still sell for high prices because they have become "collectables".

The "ban" was nothing but political bullshit.

mark