In Sri Lanka, no war, no peace

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A desperate government, caught in a catch-22 situation, cannot accede to the LTTE's demands without risking its narrow parliamentary majority. On Wednesday, February 23, the government's Information Department issued a statement declaring that the Colombo was prepared to resume talks to set up, first, an interim arrangement to handle the urgent humanitarian needs of the people, and then to proceed to discuss the final solution to the prolonged ethnic crisis. The remarks drew an angry response from the coalition partner, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which threatened to walk out of the government if the talks on the interim authority took place before a final solution to the ethnic conflict was found. The main opposition United National Party (UNP) welcomed the government's statement and offered its unstinted support.

But just as President Chandrika Kumaratunga defied the JVP threat and agreed to go the extra mile for the sake of peace, the LTTE appears to have toughened its stance and escalated demands. The LTTE's position was that the talks should focus only on its proposals for an interim self-governing authority for the north and east. But in the aftermath of the killing of the LTTE's eastern leader, E Kaushalyan, on February 7, the rebels are now demanding that the government dismantle all paramilitary groups - an obvious reference to the breakaway Karuna faction. The LTTE accuses the government of complicity in the Kaushalyan killing and strongly believes that the military is providing shelter to renegade LTTE cadres loyal to Karuna.

On February 14, Tiger ideologue Balasingham told Solheim at a meeting in London that the Sri Lankan government had to take steps to restore confidence in the peace process, in particular by disarming paramilitaries working alongside its armed forces, and to establish a joint mechanism with the LTTE for post-tsunami aid. The two new demands have not only made the Tiger's stance tougher but also made the government's search for peace difficult.
The president's response to Tiger allegations came in a statement on Friday, February 25 which quoted Chandrika Kumaratunga as having told Solheim that there were no paramilitaries working with the armed forces and unreservedly condemned the killing of Kaushalyan. She also expressed her government's commitment to discuss "a working arrangement with the LTTE for the equitable allocation and implementation of post-tsunami aid".

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The Tigers will certainly be keeping close tabs on these political developments, since southern politics is one of the factors that shape the peace process. The Tigers may also cling on to the cease fire till the current political crisis has produced an outcome. The Tigers are also aware that they can get foreign aid for development only if they keep away from violence. They are, however, also aware that if the current situation of "no war, no peace", continues it will make them politically and administratively impotent and lead to the erosion of their support base. In the words of one pro-Tiger analyst, a politically and administratively impotent LTTE that cannot deliver anything socially or economically concrete to the Tamils should, in theory, crumble inevitably if it is held for a sufficiently long time in a no-peace-no-war situation.

Asia Times