US-Iranian tug and pull over Iraq --Asia Times Online

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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/FH28Ak01.html

8/28/04
US-Iranian tug and pull over Iraq
By Ehsan Ahrari

The deal struck between the old guard, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, and the young guard, Muqtada al-Sadr, on Thursday over the custodianship of the Imam Ali Shrine is also a continuation of the struggle for the future of Iraq.

The old guard is unwittingly giving the US occupation a little space to maneuver, with an understanding that the young guard will not be harmed. Muqtada has apparently agreed to hand over the custodianship of the shrine with a more than tacit understanding that he will be allowed to participate in the Iraqi elections down the road. A five-point plan calls for foreign troops to leave the city and for the Iraqi government to compensate victims of the unrest. What the US may not have realized is that the real struggle about the future of Iraq has just entered another phase.

Through Muqtada, Iran is emerging as a potent power in the political maneuvering with the US over whether Iraq will become some sort of a secular or semi-secular democracy, or an Islamic democracy. Through this, the chances of Iran's preference for the emergence of an Islam-based Iraqi government seem to have perceptibly improved.

The shock and awe aspects of the Bush doctrine in Iraq suffered a serious setback because of the deteriorating security situation, but US aspirations to transform the shape of the political map of Iraq and the larger Middle East remain undeterred. That is one reason why Washington made a very crucial tactical shift from an overall preference for unilateralism to selective application of multilateralism in Iraq, and allowed the United Nations to play a limited role in the formation of the interim government. However, a potent competition between the US and Iran is currently taking place, not only to maintain control over the shape of events in Iraq, but also to determine whether the future elected government there will have a heavy presence and influence of the Islamic or secular elements.

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