Juan Cole on Najaf Peace Deal

[Larkspur]

Thousands Stream into Shrine of Ali
Muqtada orders Followers to Disarm
http://www.juancole.com/2004_08_01_juancole_archive.html#109359005659851262

<SNIP>
Winners and losers:

I think the big losers from the Najaf episode (part deux) are the Americans. They have become, if it is possible, even more unpopular in Iraq than they were last spring after Abu Ghuraib, Fallujah and Najaf Part 1. The US is perceived as culturally insensitive for its actions in the holy city of Najaf.

The Allawi government is also a big loser. Instead of looking decisive, as they had hoped, they ended up looking like the lackeys of neo-imperialists.

The big winner is Sistani, whose religious charisma has now been enhanced by solid nationalist credentials. He is a national hero for saving Najaf.

For Muqtada, it is a wash. He did not have Najaf until April, anyway, and cn easily survive not having it. His movement in the slums of the southern cities is intact, even if its paramilitary has been weakened.
<snip>

[Kagemusha]

1. I'll say it once - Sistani's clout rising is not bad for Sadr!

Sistani's clout rises at the expense of the US and Allawi, NOT SADR. Sadr didn't have more clout to Sistani to begin with and loses nothing by appearing to be subject to his will. Sistani, in fact, owes his now truly colossal clout to Sadr, and Sistani is piggybacking on the Sadr movement to "save" the shrine.

These people are two sides of the same coin. The upstart 'speaking' faction of Shiite Islam and the reserved 'quiet' faction of Shiite Islam. This is the 'speaking' faction prodding the 'quiet' faction into not being so quiet. Militarily, Sadr lost. Religiously and politically, he has gained tremendously.

And remember, his militia wasn't exactly Special Forces to begin with. They probably have more value to Sadr's movement, in the long term, as martyrs than as warm bodies.

[Gloria]

2. Last night on CNN, Nick Robertson said that they've still got their

weapons and you can never tell what Sadr might do in the future if he becomes "unhappy."
********
My thoughts:
Sistani had to shift more to the "non-cooperative" side of the spectrum in terms of the Americans and Iraqi gov. leaders...and Sadr is intact.

This is a real psychological victory for the anti-American Shiite groups.

Asia Times online has a great article up now about what it all means....in terms of Iran, too.....

This is an earlier article I posted to the Aug. 18 World Media Watch which discussed several other clerics of note that are in the mix as well. Notice this line.............and how it did pan out this way!!

"Sistani may be forced by the whole crisis to be more emphatic - something that is totally against his instincts and education."

The title refers to Sadr.........

A unifying factor across Iraq
By Pepe Escobar

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/FH18Ak04.html

[Kagemusha]

3. Sistani snatched defeat from the jaws of victory for Allawi.

IMHO that is. He came in and totally stole whatever respectability Allawi had left. Which is not much.

[Jack Rabbit]

4. That's it in a nutshell

Sistani emerged as the real leader of Iraq this week. Allawi and his quislings are totally discreditied.