Colombia's New Border Brigade and the Venezuelan Referendum

[bemildred]

A few months ago, the commander of the Venezuelan Army, Raul Baduel,
described something that worried him (1). Colombia had just purchased 46
AMX-30 battle tanks from Spain. The media claimed the tanks were to
fight drug trafficking, but that hardly seemed plausible. Baduel suspected
that the tanks were going to end up on the Venezuelan border.

This deployment was blandly reported in El Tiempo, Colombia's national
newspaper, yesterday (2). The 46 tanks will be part of a new Brigade,
especially created, to 'patrol the border'. Four battalions and a Special
Forces group form this new Brigade. The tanks are supposed to arrive in
(and watch the timing carefully, for we will revisit it) August.

The El Tiempo article refers to the need for the tanks in order to "defend
Colombia" from an "eventual incursion from Venezuela". The Brigade is
also charged with the defense of the Wayuu indigenous people, who have
been victims of massacres by "illegal armed groups". Thus, the indigenous
can rest secure under the protection of the very army that is killing them
directly or working with the paramilitaries ("illegal armed groups" who
happen to work with the army) who are killing them.

As for the tanks themselves, their location is unknown. The deal was signed
between the current Colombian government and the Spanish government
of Jose Maria Aznar, who made sure he sold the tanks before he lost the
elections in March. But, an El Tiempo editorial in the same issue
speculates, the Venezuelan government is pressuring Zapatero's new
Spanish government to call off the deal. "The final answer will be given by
the tanks," writes the Madrid correspondent for El Tiempo, Victor Manuel
Vargas. "That is, if they are delivered or not."

more

[The Magistrate]

1. An Interesting Development, My Friend

The characterization of the purpose for the purchase by El Tiempo is indeed troubling, for it would seem an evident fact there is no intention of any Venezuelan attack on Columbia. There has been a recent increase in guerrilla activity in the wilderness of that border, which seems to be related to the oil pipeline there on the Columbian side, and rivalry for protection monies between the armed bands of the right and the left in the area. It probably is true that these, particularly on the left, pay little heed to the border demarcation in their operations, and so an ill-disposed person probably could characterize some of their activities as incursions from Venezuela.

It seems open to question how much value these vehicles would have in an invasion across that border. The region is hardly good "tank country", after all, and even if an armored spear-head managed a decent advance, it would be very hard to bring up supply to sustain it further. The AMX is well armed, but not well armored, and would be a poor implement to rely on for a breakthrough. What they would seem best suited for, it seems to me, is patrol, escort, and ready reaction along the pipeline, where there are certainly service and access roads, or it could not be kept in working order, whether the repairs were necessitated by ordinary malfunction or hostile action.

Still, it would certainly be best if the new Spanish government cancelled the contract: an attack on Venezuela by the right can hardly be a desire of its foreign policy.

[bemildred]

2. A few comments:

1.) I read yesterday, I think, that the Spanish Chamber of
Deputies has voted to cancel the delivery of the tanks.

2.) I would think that an investment in an adequate supply of
modern anti-tank weapons would take care of that "threat". While
I share your general ambivalence about the terrain, it did seem
that a route through Cucuta(Colombia) might work; to what end
is another question. They will not, in any case, be unopposed.

3.) Still, it's a credible way to get a war started, and the fact
that it is a stupid war with little chance of a win for Colombia or
Uncle Sugar cannot be relied on to prevent the current crop of
"leaders" from taking a shot at it. In Colombia in particular, I
would expect FARC and the ELN to exploit the situation. The US
is going to amazing lengths to find more troops, and to fill in the
empty patches created in the process. Did you read we are sending
some Stealth Fighters to Korea for "exercises"?

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I am most interested at this point in what the opposition strategy
will be in dealing with the referendum. I have seen little on this,
and it appears as we though we were right that the recall will
lose as things stand.