445 (ppm) a Hotly Debated Number at Conference (more from latest IPCC conference)

[jpak]

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/w-asia/2007/may/04/050405146.html

445 was the hot number at this week's climate change conference in Bangkok.

For the United States, China and India, that number - which represents parts per million of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere - came to symbolize a cap on emissions that would hurt their economies.

European countries, by contrast, used the figure as a rallying cry to save the planet.

<snip>

Science would appear to be on the side of the Europeans, who are lobbying for an international climate agreement limiting temperatures increases to 2 degrees.

<much more>

[phantom power]

1. 2 degrees.

Wow. I wonder if they'll strain themselves, patting themselves on the back for "limiting" the temperature increase to 2 degrees. Because 2 degrees is a fucking catastrophe. And, of course, nobody is really agreeing to that. Because it will damage our economy. Unlike, say, the climate disaster that 2 degrees is going to embody. Assuming that we have the power to "limit" anything, given the fat list of positive-feedback loops we've kicked off already.

2 degrees, my ass.

[Dogmudgeon]

2. For Americans, that's 3.6 degrees Farenheit

And it's likely in three decades.

I haven't seen very much from the IPCC yet, but I wonder if they are using linear or geometric CO2 growth models. It seems that the rates of CO2 and temperature increase have gone up, too, but I have not seen much work done on that except for the hockey-stick "skeptics" who insist it's all just numerical artifact.

I also wonder what second-order phenomena other than volatile weather may be in store for us. I recently read that there would be more kudzu and worse poison ivy.

--p!

[phantom power]

3. I imagine that there will be some unpleasant feedback between parasites and diseases.

As long as we maintain relatively good sanitation, there will probably be a lid on it, but if the economy crashes, I have a feeling that things like public sanitation and medical care will suffer, which of course will provide a major opening for those same parasites, and parasite-born diseases.

Malaria, plague, lymes disease, whee!

[Dead_Parrot]

5. 2 degrees -average-, remember...

The oceans warm a lot less than the land. For people in America, it'll be 6 or 7^o F. :)

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. They use a variety of growth models

Because the emissions depend heavily on what government policies (both specific climate change, and trade, polices) are, and also how economies develop.

The SPM for Mitigation is now available. Figure SPM 7 on page 23 shows the net CO2 added each year to the atmosphere under 6 scenarios - those that show the rate increasing each year, until at least 2030, end up with CO2 equivalent concentrations in the 600 to 1000 ppm range, and average temperature increases from 3 to 5 degrees C (with the worst case up to 8 degrees C). Those are the "what happens if we don't do something major" scneraios.

[jpak]

4. We'd be damned lucky if it's "only" 2 degrees C

Most of that is already unavoidable due to the present concentrations of GHG in the atmosphere.

[phantom power]

6. Yes, and I think our luck is about to run out.