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Study: Sudden sea level surges threaten 1 billion (Reuters/CNN)

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eppur_se_muova Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-21-07 04:45 PM
Original message
Study: Sudden sea level surges threaten 1 billion (Reuters/CNN)
SAN FRANCISCO, California (Reuters) -- More than 1 billion people live in low-lying areas where a sudden surge in sea level could prove as disastrous as the 2004 Asian tsunami, according to new research presented on Thursday.

New mapping techniques show how much land would be lost and how many people affected by rapid sea level rises that are often triggered by storms and earthquakes, a U.S. Geological Survey-led team determined.

E. Lynn Usery, who led the team, said nearly one-quarter of the world's population lives below 100 feet above sea level -- the size of the biggest surge during the 2004 tsunami that pulverized villages along the Indian Ocean and killed 230,000 people.

"What we are suggesting is what kind of areas are at risk (in) a catastrophic event," Usery told a meeting of the Association of American Geographers.
***
"This can be used by nations in the world to put contingency plans in place," Usery said. "We haven't had data sets at this kind of resolution before."
***
more: http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/04/20/sea.levels.reut/index.html
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Strelnikov_ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-21-07 05:24 PM
Response to Original message
1. Ancient Crash, Epic Wave (Mega-Tsunami Every 1000 Years?)
Recycled screed.

++++++++++++++

This could be one of the most significant geophysical findings in generations. The 'impact' of this theory on the sustainability of modern industrial society, as currently configured, is monumental. Imagine the loss of most of the Pacific rim cities in an instant. Loss of the entire Persian Gulf or Atlantic basin (including GOM) petroleum infrastructure, in an instant. With these events having a, say, 1/2000 chance of occurring any given year.

As a comparison, I work in an industry (dams/hydrology/hydraulics) where we design for a safety factor of anywhere from 1/500 to 1/10,000 (dam upstream of ‘urban’ area) chance of occurring any given year. I began thinking about the frequency of tsunami following stories of the Indian Ocean tsunami where indigenous tribes understood that the water pulling away from shore signaled a need to move inland, fast. This knowledge was obviously passed down by oral history, which indicates to me tsunami on the scale of the one two years ago may be a lot more frequent than we think. The problem is a limited record to estimate the frequency of infrequent, extreme events.

When these (theorized) objects struck in the past, humans far enough away from the impact and resultant waves simply had land to colonize a few generations later. In our modern interconnected industrial society, the effects will be felt throughout all but the most undeveloped parts of the world in the form of economic collapse, famine, and more than likely conflict as the warlords inevitably try to grab what they can in the chaos. Consider that 80% of the world’s population lives within 200 ft. of sea level. We may have one more reason for industrialized society to move a significant enough amount of its resources away from the oceans to provide some redundancy.

It all may come to nothing, but the evidence presented so far is intriguing.


Ancient Crash, Epic Wave
By Sandra Blakeslee
November 14, 2006

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/14/science/14WAVE.html?ex=1321160400&en=35b395ffd080eb47&ei=5090
. . .

Most astronomers doubt that any large comets or asteroids have crashed into the Earth in the last 10,000 years. But the self-described “band of misfits” that make up the two-year-old Holocene Impact Working Group say that astronomers simply have not known how or where to look for evidence of such impacts along the world’s shorelines and in the deep ocean.

Scientists in the working group say the evidence for such impacts during the last 10,000 years, known as the Holocene epoch, is strong enough to overturn current estimates of how often the Earth suffers a violent impact on the order of a 10-megaton explosion. Instead of once in 500,000 to one million years, as astronomers now calculate, catastrophic impacts could happen every 1,000 years.

The researchers, who formed the working group after finding one another through an international conference, are based in the United States, Australia, Russia, France and Ireland. They are established experts in geology, geophysics, geomorphology, tsunamis, tree rings, soil science and archaeology, including the structural analysis of myth. Their efforts are just getting under way, but they will present some of their work at the American Geophysical Union meeting in December in San Francisco.

. . .

Dr. Masse analyzed 175 flood myths from around the world, and tried to relate them to known and accurately dated natural events like solar eclipses and volcanic eruptions. Among other evidence, he said, 14 flood myths specifically mention a full solar eclipse, which could have been the one that occurred in May 2807 B.C. Half the myths talk of a torrential downpour, Dr. Masse said. A third talk of a tsunami. Worldwide they describe hurricane force winds and darkness during the storm. All of these could come from a mega-tsunami.


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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-21-07 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Also to consider: Different myths from different impacts
There was also a well-documented object breakup and impacts over Europe and Asia Minor around 2200 BCE. It is thought by some anthropologists and historians to be the source of legends of Ragnarokr and the Death of the Gods in early Indo-European folklore. The prevalence of disaster myths around the world and from different eras supports this idea.

Keep in mind that these could be "small" objects, a hundred meters in dimension, or even less, depending on their structure and aerodynamics, like the theorized Tunguska object (1908).

--p!
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-21-07 08:52 PM
Response to Original message
3. What about creeping sea level surges?
Any risk?
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htuttle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-22-07 12:52 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Sure there's risk from those
But we can put off dealing with that until tomorrow...tomorrow...tomorrow...

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eppur_se_muova Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-22-07 01:54 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. from later in the same article ...
A rise of just 16 feet would affect 669 million people and 2 million square miles of land would be lost.

Sea levels are currently rising about 0.04 to 0.08 inches each year, making it unlikely such a scenario would suddenly occur across the globe, Usery said.

But he said 10,000 years ago sea levels rose 20 meters {66 feet} in 500 years -- a relatively short span -- after the collapse of the continental ice sheets.

"It can happen in a short period of time if we look at the historical data," Usery said.

If we burn enough coal, we can surely beat that 500 years by a wide margin -- and force 10+% of Earth's population to migrate inland.

:shrug: What's with the jumble of English and metric units? Oh, it's only CNN.
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-22-07 05:17 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. I think someone may be dropping a zero.
Edited on Sun Apr-22-07 05:20 PM by happyslug
The "Madhouse Century" occurred about 120,000 year ago, where world wide sea levels rose 20 feet and then drop 200 feet about 100 years later. This is attributed to the break up of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

http://www.imaja.com/as/environment/can/journal/madhousecentury.html
http://ces.iisc.ernet.in/hpg/envis/doc98html/globalcll1119.html
http://home.earthlink.net/~icedneuron/CCLinks.htm

Sorry, I re-read the Article, the authors seems to be talking about the Collpose of the North American Ice Sheet about 10,000 years ago.

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