"Unprecedented Weakening Of Scientific Confidence" In IPCC Reports Thanks To Gov. Interference

[hatrack]

(BRUSSELS) — An authoritative international global warming conference, already past its deadline for finishing a comprehensive report, lapsed into an unprecedented showdown between scientists and diplomats over authors' concerns that governments were watering down their warnings. Last-minute negotiations over language continued behind closed doors Friday, less than two hours before the scheduled release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report in Brussels.

A dramatic dispute between the scientific authors of the report and its diplomatic editors erupted over a paragraph in the 21-page summary regarding how much confidence the scientists have in their findings. The report concerns the effects global warming is already having and will have on life on Earth. The disputed paragraph centers on what has already happened.

The paragraph originally said scientists had "very high confidence" — which means more than 90 percent chance of accuracy — in the statement that many natural systems around the globe "are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases."

After days of intensive small group negotiations over this section, delegates from China and Saudi Arabia on Friday insisted that the confidence be reduced to "high confidence" which means more than 80 percent accuracy. Three top scientists-authors formally objected to the change by the diplomats, including American scientist David Karoly of the University of Oklahoma. The scientists said it was an unprecedented weakening of the scientific confidence that was not raised when the report was circulated the past several months.

EDIT

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1607539,00.html

[phantom power]

1. I agree with jpak. What's the point of this?

Do they think that changing the language gives them some kind of victory over reality?

I guess I just answered my own question. :(

[hatrack]

2. Well, they're the guys who "create their own reality"

Surely you haven't forgotten?
:evilgrin:

[BrklynLiberal]

4. These are the same guys who would pee on your shoes and tell you it was raining.

[jpak]

7. It will backfire on them - and especially * et al

The Bush GW Gag Order on US government scientists is bad enough.

But the very public dumbing-down of the IPCC report by the Group W Bench crowd will only draw attention to it and its conclusions - and now *everyone* knows the scientific evidence for GW is robust and the consequences dire.

What are these people thinking???

[depakid]

3. Oklahoma....

Why am I not surprised....

Probably for the same reason I have little sympathy for that state, which is going to suffer more than most in the coming decades.

[Morgana LaFey]

5. If I get your drift, you need to read it again nt

[RedEarth]

6. What????????

..........from the article...........

Three top scientists-authors formally objected to the change by the diplomats, including American scientist David Karoly of the University of Oklahoma. The scientists said it was an unprecedented weakening of the scientific confidence that was not raised when the report was circulated the past several months.


Based on what you said, should I assume that you prefer diplomats and politicians to have control over scientists? That sounds like what you're saying. Hopefully not all people from Oregon feel that way.

.........you might want to check out Dr Karoly's background.........


David J. Karoly

Williams Chair
Professor of Meteorology


Contact information:
School of Meteorology
University of Oklahoma
100 E. Boyd Street, Room 1366
Norman OK 73019-1013



Summary CV



Research interests

My research interests are in the dynamics of the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere and its variability on time scales from days to centuries. Specific research interests include greenhouse climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion and interannual climate variations associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation. I was Co-coordinating Lead Author of the chapter "Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes" in the international scientific assessment of climate change prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in 2001. In 2002, I was lead author of a short report for the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering assessing current understanding and remaining uncertainties in climate change science.



I have developed a keen interest in the cross-disciplinary aspects of global change research and earth system science, as well as the applications of my research in policy areas. I have given a number of presentations on climate change and global warming to government and industry groups, as well as to community groups. I have been involved in recent research publications on the public health impacts in Australia of increased UV radiation and the wildfire impacts of climate change.



· Background

I joined the School of Meteorology at OU in January 2003 from Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, where I was Professor of Meteorology and Head of the School of Mathematical Sciences. From August 1995, I was Director of the Cooperative Research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology at Monash University until it closed in June 2000.



· Awards

1993 - Meisinger Award from the American Meteorological Society, with citation "for contributions to the understanding of the role of Rossby wave propagation in atmospheric teleconnections and to greenhouse climate change research".

1998 - Norbert Gerbier-Mumm International Award from the World Meteorological Organization for a joint research paper with ten international collaborators.

1999 - elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society for outstanding contributions to the atmospheric sciences over a substantial period of years.

Professor David Karoly

David Karoly is the Williams Chair Professor of Meteorology at University of Oklahoma. Between 1995 and 2000 he was Professor of Meteorology and Director of the Cooperative Research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology at Monash University, then from 2001 to 2002, he was Head of the School of Mathematical Sciences at Monash He was lead author of the chapter "Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes" for the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. In 1998, he received the Norbert Gerbier-Mumm International Award from the World Meteorological Organisation for joint research. In 1999, he was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society for outstanding contributions to the atmospheric sciences.

"When I started working on climate variability and change in 1985, I set out to prove that climate change due to increasing greenhouse gases was not occurring. The more I have studied this subject, the clearer it has become that global warming is occurring now and it is going to get much larger in the future." David Karoly

[Nicole]

9. Oklahoma...

Why am I not surprised to see someone jump at the opportunity to talk crap about Oklahoma before reading the entire article?

Please read this part again:

Three top scientists-authors formally objected to the change by the diplomats, including American scientist David Karoly of the University of Oklahoma.

The University of Oklahoma scientist objected to the change.

Oklahoma has enough problems that it is guilty of, there's no need to make up some that don't exist.

[RedEarth]

10. Well Nicole, as I've discovered,

and perhaps you have as well, there are assholes on DU just like there are assholes in the real world. Just because someone posts on DU it certainly doesn't mean they aren't a bigot or an asshole. The right wing tends to bash those from certain countries(France, Canada, etc) and here on DU there are a number of people that like to take shots at those who live in certain states. Interesting, isn't it? It certainly doesn't seem to be very progressive.

[GeorgeGist]

8. The scientific authors are 90% confident ...

but the non-scientific reviewers only 80%. Who you gonna believe?