DOHA, Qatar: Legendary Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens sees today's stubbornly high oil price as evidence that daily global production capacity is at — or very near — its peak. If demand for crude oil rises beyond the current global output of roughly 85 million barrels per day, Pickens told The Associated Press, prices will rise to compensate and alternative sources of energy will begin to replace petroleum.
"If I'm right, we're already at the peak," Pickens said earlier this week in Doha, on the sidelines of the Forbes magazine CEO conference. "The price will have to go up."
Confidence about the world's supply of oil is being undermined by what Pickens said were overoptimistic estimates of Middle Eastern reserves, mainly by Saudi Arabia. The Saudis and other major producers ban independent verification of their reserves.
"I think there are less reserves around the world than are being reported," said the 78-year-old former wildcatter, who now heads the Dallas-based hedge fund BP Capital. "There are no audited reserves in the Mideast. It makes me suspicious."
Still, most industry and government analysts are far less pessimistic than the straight-talking Texan. Most believe petroleum will be a growing energy source for decades. The U.S. government expects oil demand to rise to 120 million barrels a day by 2030 and says a peak in output — the point at which half of the world's reserves are depleted — won't arrive until mid-century.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/01/africa/ME-FIN-Pickens-Oil-Peak.php