Significant cut in gasoline use is decades away: automakers

[jpak]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070211/bs_afp/usclimatewarming_070211234607

CHICAGO (AFP) - It will be decades before the world will see a significant cut in global automotive gasoline consumption, automakers and analysts said.

While there have been major improvements in fuel economy and reduced emissions through the development of technologies such as hybrids and clean diesel, consumers are not adopting them quickly enough to make a serious dent.

Gasoline electric hybrids -- which can improve fuel economy by anywhere from 20 percent to 60 percent -- currently make up less than one percent of global sales.

Hybrid demand is primarily in the US market and is not expected to expand significantly as consumers shy away from the high price tag coupled with fuel economy improvements that only apply to stop and go city driving, said Eric Fedewa, an analyst at CSM Worldwide.

<more>

[BayCityProgressive]

1. extinction of human race

only decades away-Scientists.

[SharonAnn]

2. Thanks to their refusal to address the issue. Their fight against fuel economy, etc.

[GliderGuider]

3. Oh no it's not.

It's maybe a decade away. But it won't be because the automakers mended their ways. It will be because people can't afford as much gasoline at $8.00 a gallon...

[Strelnikov_]

11. Or it could be a short month or two away . . .

considering the degree of saber rattling taking place in the region containing nearly 50% of the worlds petroleum export capacity.

[GliderGuider]

13. Yep. One thermonuclear weapon can ruin your whole day.

God I hate being this pessimistic.

[n2doc]

4. Funny, the us cut our gas usage in the 107o's for a time

Didn't take more than a few years. I suspect that we could do the same again

[RaleighNCDUer]

5. "...consumers shy away from the high price tag..."

Ya know, if you produced the hybrids in enough quantity, that would bring the price down - if the price is high it is because you are not making enough of them.

It's the same as the electric cars - the demand is there but you stopped making them, saying there was no interest. The only lack of interest is in the interconnected corporate boards of the auto/oil industry.

[jpak]

12. 2006 Ford Expedition MSRP = $36-42K

2006 Prius MSRP = $22-23K

Shy away y'all...

[madokie]

6. I remember back in the mid 60's when they started putting pvc valves on engines

I thought what the hell good will that do when you have all these cars and trucks already on the roads, heck the neighbor's old truck smoked like a frieght train, what goods that gonna do. Well here we are in 2007 with much cleaner air and many times over numbers of cars and trucks in the world is what.

[Virginia Dare]

7. Well, when consumers can no longer afford to operate autos..

I guess we'll have a problem then, eh automakers? :banghead:

[One_Life_To_Give]

8. And Gas will stay under $3 per gallon

Just wait till the spring driving season starts. When gas goes back over $3 a gallon, you will see people change their habits. This current situation of "Cheap" fuel these last couple months won't last through the summer vacation season.

[kestrel91316]

9. We don't have decades. Maybe if we're lucky, Peak Oil will

avert Global Warming..............but I think it's more likely they will just merge to create the perfect storm.

[GOPBasher]

20. Unfortunately, peak oil will not stop global warming, b/c

most of our emissions are from coal. So, it's probably more the perfect storm scenerio.

[IDemo]

10. This graph shows a, I don't know, kind of a peaky thing happening before 2010

and kind of a downwards slidy thing happening before one decade from now:

[JohnWxy]

14. IT takes quite a while to replace a significant percentage of all the cars on the road.

this takes even longer when the replacement technology (e.g. hybrid vehicles) are quite expensive:

"Also, how long will it take to get to 20% of the fleet being hybrids? Not everybody buys a new car every year. Would this take 20 years?"

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/JohnWxy/9">$132.6 Billion to reduce oil consumption by 5% with Hybrid vehicles?
Posted Sun Apr 09th 2006, 04:45 PM>

[GliderGuider]

15. The US fleet turnover time is 20-25 years.

Keep in mind that not every high-efficiency replacement is more expensive than a current vehicle. The European fleet is on average 47% more fuel-efficient than the US fleet. They achieve this by using lighter vehicles, smaller engines and a greater proportion of diesel power. Any shift in consumer preference toward better fuel economy will encompass a move in that direction as well as a move to hybrids. In fact, given their price advantage Euro-style vehicles would likely prove much more popular than hybrids.

If all new vehicles sold in the US provided a 50% mileage improvement in 20 years, then to a first approximation the average fleet economy would have improved by half that, or 25%. The lack of additional expense of Euro-style vehicles could make the fleet turnover even more rapid if gas prices rise significantly. Also, there would need to be no cost passed on to the taxpayers through incentive programs, unless an even greater acceleration of fleet replacement was desired.

[JohnWxy]

16. thanks, but I really wasn't asking the question. In my post I referenced I was proposing it would

take a good 20 years with very strong growth in sales for hybrids to reach about 20% of the total fleet. Of course, factors could change (such as a huge increase in gasoline prices) which would increase the growth in sale of hybrids even more than I was using for my calculations (I believe I used a continuous 20% yearly growth over that period). My objective was to point out a cost estimate of acheiving a 5% decrease in total gasoline demand achieved by use of hybrids alone.

[Porcupine]

17. or two bad hurricane seasons.

The US economy can only suffer having the southeast evacuated so many times before things come to a grinding halt. Four more landfall hurricanes the size of Katrina and Rita and people will get the message.

When I was a kid bad weather was bad weather. It was the roll of the dice and nobody thought it had anything to do with our actions. Now when the weather gets too hot or a wave of storms smashes through a community people mutter about "Global Warming."

Even the denialists have to come on the air and announce every time that the latest killer heat wave, tornado frenzy or hurricane is "NOT global warming." People are getting the idea deep into their heads that their actions are the direct cause of their suffering.

With enough suffering they WILL demand changes in no uncertain terms. The most obvious is to pull all the SUV's off the road. Another killer heat wave in the East coast and Midwest and SUV's will start to have their tires knifed at WalMart. Count on it.

[phantom power]

19. Or one nuclear confrontation with Iran. Or...

5 more years of 15% annual decline in Cantarell. Assuming it's that slow.

[wordpix]

18. must see: Who Killed the Electric Car? New Prius hybrid electric will get 125 mpg

The fuckers (car makers + oil barons + their political ass kissers) PURPOSEFULLY killed the clean, fun, easy-to-maintain electric car during past decade and deliberately persuaded people not to buy it. They refused to let people re-lease them and then crushed every one.

Go to : pluginamerica.com and see film Who Killed the Electric Car? for further info

[GOPBasher]

21. American automakers: fuck off.

How does that sound, GM, Ford and the partly American Daimler-Chrysler? Go fuck yourselves. I'll buy Toyota, who actually gives a damn about fuel efficiency.

[depakid]

22. LOL. I have news

The economics of oil petroleum depletion will come into play sooner than the reality challenged automakers think.

[4dsc]

23. Peak oil will occur first

We don't have decades. Oil production will peak within 10 years and that will put a good damper on auto production..