Energy will be a central theme of President George W. Bush's state of the union speech this month, as it was in last year's address when he briefly caught national attention with the claim that the country was "addicted to oil". But his critics doubt that he will do much more than call for more spending on alternative fuels, and again fail to embrace international efforts to agree a post-Kyoto regime to tackle greenhouse emissions.
"We've had the hydrogen economy, then alternative fuels, and 'addicted to oil'," said a senior industry lobbyist. "Yet on close Senate votes, such as drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, he has not put his prestige on the line by making personal calls. Energy policy has been the creation of Congress. Almost anything Bush says in the speech is irrelevant the day after he says it."
The administration rejects that, with one senior official noting: "It's a lot more than rhetorical: what was done with the 2005 act was substantial." Mr Bush has identified energy as a key area for bipartisan co-operation in the next two years. Al Hubbard, chairman of the National Economic Council, who is co-ordinating White House energy policy, has also raised expectations. In a speech at De Pauw University he predicted "headlines above the fold that will knock your socks off in terms of our commitment to energy independence".
"One of the challenges is how they differentiate themselves from last year," warned Spencer Abraham, energy secretary in Mr Bush's first term. "You have had a big commitment to hydrogen and to ethanol. We thought $1.7bn over five years on hydrogen was big bucks but it was seen as insufficient by our critics. Maybe $10bn is enough to get attention. But the question is whether it is actually implemented by Congress."
Current and former administration officials admit that the $2bn announced last year in loan guarantees for alternative fuels, such as clean coal technologies, has been snarled in bureaucracy. The deadline for applications has now been extended. (Emphasis added)
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