Playing with Fire – The 10 Tcf/year Supply Gap -- Natural gas

[4dsc]

Damn good read.. I wonder how this will play out with peak oil??


http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=1388

This is the first of a four part series of articles on the natural gas and electricity price and supply risks facing the U.S. economy. The first article provides an overview and summary. Subsequent articles will examine specific issues in more detail.

It’s been almost 5 years since I first began speaking out publicly on “The Emerging Natural Gas Crisis.” It may be an appropriate time, therefore, to step back and reassess the likely long-term prospects for price and supply in the U.S. market.

After 5 years of soaring prices, where do we stand? Are the most severe price shocks already behind us? Or a few years from now will the price increases of the past few years look tame – just as 3 years ago the notion that oil might soon reach $75 per barrel might have been considered absurd?

If the latter is true – if we’re still at a relatively early stage in the emerging crisis – what steps, if any, can be taken, to avoid the potential for serious further harm to the U.S. economy from rising energy costs?

[GliderGuider]

1. Think about that, then look at this graph

This one gives me the cold sweats. The blue discovery curve shifted forward in time is a dead-bang fit to the production curve. Look where the discovery curve went.

[Strelnikov_]

3. Yes, That Is A Bit Chilling. And I Am Sure You Have Seen The Articles

that seem to be pointing to Russia's looming seizure of the Sakhalin LNG project, along with their rumblings along the lines of using energy supply as a political wedge.

Then we have the Persian Gulf, home of 40% of the worlds natural gas reserves. Wonder how LNG tankers do in the middle of a shooting war (my suspicion, not very well).

[Strelnikov_]

2. "Wonder How This Will Play Out w/ Peak Oil?" My Guess, Badly

Very, very badly.


And thanks for posting this article. Trying to find a concise source of information about the NA natural gas situation for a layman like myself is difficult at best.

Looks like its time to get serious about that ground source heat pump system. With an EROEI of 3, its like having tar sands or a coal gasification plant in your basement.


Some comments regarding the article:

This impending crisis can be prevented by adopting a comprehensive national energy strategy

Agree.

The coming energy crises means the end of Laissez-Faire energy planning, if we are to survive, that is.

In the coming world of energy scarcity, the current ‘free-market’ dynamic will be incapable of providing a relatively stable energy supply. We will need a diverse, redundant and integrated energy infrastructure that will require planning and coordination far beyond what ‘market signals’ (ie: price) can provide.

Once we have established a USEA (U.S. Energy Authority) that provides centralized planning for the energy infrastructure, we can begin basing infrastructure development on an energy balance basis. This would hopefully avoid the building of inefficient systems, an example of which is the ethanol plant just completed 7 mi. east of where I am now. This plant will burn coal to produce a liquid fuel with an EPR of 1 (corn ethanol) when you could produce a liquid fuel with an EPR of 5 from the coal directly.


As a growing number of major environmental groups now recognize, substitution of the use of coal for natural gas and liquid fuels can be done in a way that is a way that is fully consistent with all major environmental goals.

Is not the use of coal as he advertises as being ‘consistent with environment goals’ limited to electrical generation with carbon sequestration? How can coal gasification (a.k.a. ‘City Gas’, since the article is addressing natural gas) result in reduction of carbon emissions when said gas will be burned in discrete locations? Have I missed some major development?

[phantom power]

4. Can I vote for "we're hosed" twice in the same week?